Conserving agricultural resources

1. Conserving agricultural resources Greenaccord Conference October 2014 Gary gardner Worldwatch institute

2. Why this topic? • Of UNEP’s 26 emerging issues, ensuring food security is ranked • #3 by scientists • #2 by major groups and governments • Preview of State of the World 2015 • Builds on State of the World 2014

3. The plan Today Message: The world’s agricultural resource base is being eroded in ways that is affecting food security Outline: • I. The Problem is Now: a Case Study • II. The Damage to Land, Water, and Atmosphere • III. Why is Resource Loss Important? • IV. The Need for Ethical Governance

4. I. The Problem is now: the case of california

5. Worst drought in 109 years • Reduced surface water for agriculture by 36 percent • Groundwater cannot compensate • Nearly 5 percent of the state's irrigated farmland is fallowed • Economic toll: $2.2 billion, 17,000 lost jobs

6. Climate and land loss, too… • Climate change: droughts jeopardize water “savings accounts” • Aquifers harder to replenish • Snowpack to decline by 12-40 percent by mid-century. • Land loss to urban development: • 2008 -2010, equal to 3/4 the area of San Francisco. • Similar trends for the world • Even as global demand will increase by 60 percent by 2050

7. ii. Damage to Land, Water, and climate • US: 9.3 million hectares (=Indiana) lost to development, 1982-2007 • Global: 15 to 24 percent of world's land is degraded. • Less vegetation = more climate change, reduced ag yields

8. “Grabbed“ Land

9. Grabbed land: leading investor and target countries

10. Water scarcity • Agriculture: two-thirds of water withdrawals in most economies • Irrigated farmland • 16 percent of arable land • 44 percent of the world's food. • Limited potential to increase irrigated area. • FAO views water as the binding constraint for food production in the Middle East and North Africa

11. River Basins • Many river basins now "closed“ • domestic, agricultural, and industrial water competes with ecological needs • 405 river basins with 75 percent of global irrigated area: • In 201, severe water scarcity for at least one month per year • In 35, severe water scarcity for at least half of the year. • Tension: Ethiopian dam on the Nile.

12. Aquifers—Increasingly Drained • 2012 study: 20 percent pumped faster than recharged • Satellite data: Tigris and Euphrates basins lost water equal to volume of the Dead Sea, 60 percent from overpumping • Similar depletions found in India, North China, North Africa, southern Europe and the United States.

13. Climate change • Changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2 harm crops at the global level • IPCC: net yields could decline 0.2-2.0 percent per decade • Yet demand to increase by 14 percent per decade. • Or worse? Layer climate studies on hydrological studies, output losses are doubled

14. IiI. why care about resource Loss? Since 1961: a 2.5- to 3-fold increase in ag output

15. Because of hunger amid rising demand… • More than 800 million people--one out of 9 persons—are chronically hungry. • Growing prosperity increases demand for grain-intensive livestock products. • Demand up steadily—2.2% annually between 1961 and 2007.

16. …as Biofuels Boost demand further • Biofuels eat up • 40 percent of US coarse grain production • 50 percent of Brazil's sugar crop, and • 80 percent of EU oilseed production • A “new market fundamental" that drives up prices (FAO)

17. …And Strategies for securing food may not be sustainable • To date, Intensification • Farmers boost yields using mechanization, fertilizer, new seeds, irrigation • Fishers use high-tech trawlers, and aquaculture • Emerging strategy: imports

18. Middle east and North africa

19. Central America

20. Mexico

21. Countries dependent on imported grain The number of exporting countries also increased, by 29 percent, from 21 to 27.

22. Iv. The need for ethical governance • Goal: create a new ethic for food and agriculture • Food as sacred • Ag resources as strategic • Farming as dignified and life-giving • Milan Protocol helps to advance these goals • Roles for governments, industry, cooperative sector, individuals

23. Government For the heavy lifting

24. Protect Farmland • Easements, purchases • Agricultural zones that preserve farmland • Programs to prevent degradation

25. Increase water productivity • Water footprint benchmarks for crops • Crop-shifting away from thirsty crops, where needed • Assist poor farmers with efficient irrigation technologies

26. Potential water savings from efficiencyincreases in farming

27. Enshrine a right to food • Safeguards needed to protect countries dependent on international markets for food. • Long pedigree • Ensure that it provides food security to importing countries

28. three resource reservoirs • Governments may need to assess the resource load represented by • Biofuels • Food Waste • Excessive Meat Consumption • Huge potential to alleviate scarcity

29. Private sector Innovation and resources

30. Private sector • Core business practices • No to speculation on food and farmland • Promote sust ag practices among suppliers • Marketing practices • 2-for 1 deals • In-house practices • “Just-in-time" delivery • “No-tray” cafeterias

31. Cooperative sector An underdeveloped alternative

32. Cooperative sector • Cooperative businesses • Commons management

33. individuals More powerful than we imagine

34. Market power, power of example • Favor investments for smallholders, cooperatives, and microfinance • Develop a no-waste ethic vis-à-vis food and water • Support small, local farmers, through CSAs, farmers markets, etc

35. Thank you! ggardner@worldwatch.org