Decision Support Services

1. Decision Support Services A Vision Rusty Billingsley Chief, Science and Technology Services NWS Southern Region Headquarters

2. Decision Support Services What is this about? NWS Future Direction - Improving forecaster-provided interpretive services for decision makers (Jack Hayes, NWS Director 09/25/2008) “Better decisions for America by improving forecaster-provided interpretive services for decision makers” (All hands meeting, 12/08)

3. Decision Support Services “All the Buzz” • It’s everywhere… • NWS 2010 Draft Strategic Plan • Draft Science Vision and Roadmap • National decision support team • “Why?” and “How?” Teams • Workshops, conferences, etc. • Yet the NWS is struggling still to define it…

4. Decision Support Services My take and disclaimer

5. Decision Support Services The Simple Answer – NWS is Decision Support • The mission has not changed…the environment in which we deliver our mission has. How? • Explosion of (instantly available) information • Our reach has been extended (i.e., the new collaborative world) • 9-11 • Rapid technological advances • The value of our science has improved • Demographics • Yet we are still all about life and property…public safety

6. Decision Support Services NWS has always been “Decision Support” My arrival in the NWS

7. Decision Support Services 1980 in the NWS My arrival in the NWS Produced products and shipped them out

8. Decision Support Services 1990s in the NWS “The Modernization” Produced products and shipped them out

9. Decision Support Services NWS in the 2000s – A New Operating Environment

10. Decision Support Services NWS is Decision Support • The mission has not changed…the environment in which we deliver our mission has. How? • Explosion of (instantly available) information • Our reach has been extended (i.e., the new collaborative world) • 9-11 • Rapid technological advances • The value of our science has improved • Demographics • Yet we are still all about life and property…public safety

11. Decision Support Services Explosion of information Need to look no further than the Web

12. Decision Support Services Explosion of information The Fort Worth Forecast

13. Decision Support Services Explosion of information We contribute our share

14. Decision Support Services “Increases the Need for Interpretation” On-site, at the fire… “I heard from the commander at the site, that when he has a critical decision to make, he doesn't want to be looking at a laptop,” Hayes said. “He wants to be looking eyeball to eyeball at somebody who really understands what the models are saying and really understands how that applies to his situation.” San Diego Union Tribune October 2007 Srn Ca fires …Jack Hayes

15. Decision Support Services “Increases the Need for Interpretation” Virtual briefing from the forecast office… “I think the weather briefing is the best thing since the spotter activation information.  We use the briefing as a tool to prepare elected officials, law enforcement, fire departments, and EMS for the upcoming weather. We are able to evaluate the situation and resources we have to commit.  By having the briefing we are far better prepared than in the past. Every bit of information we have in advance allows the management team to better perform the challenges ahead.” Robert Barrett, Gaines County Emergency Management and LEPC Seminole, TX

16. Decision Support Services Extend our reach with new technologies Legacy NWS Business Info Forecaster Product

17. Decision Support Services Extend our reach with new technologies The New NWS Web Briefing Recorded Briefing Live Virtual Briefing IC Center On-site IC Incident On-site Info Forecaster Services

18. Decision Support Services Extend our reach with new technologies The “reach” is rapidly becoming two-way, interactive, and more personal

19. Decision Support Services 9-11, DHS, and ICS

20. Decision Support Services Rapid Technological Advances My Youth My Son Just look at video games

21. SR Decision Support Program Rapid Technological Advances

22. Decision Support Services The value of our science has improved

23. Decision Support Services Demographics - Population at Risk Coastal Population Wildland Urban Interface

24. Decision Support Services NWS is Decision Support • The mission has not changed…the environment in which we deliver our mission has. How? • Explosion of (instantly available) information • Our reach has been extended (i.e., the new collaborative world) • 9-11 • Rapid technological advances • The value of our science has improved • Demographics • Yet we are still all about life and property…public safety

25. Decision Support Services NWS = decision support So these folks are doing decision support

26. Decision Support Services NWS = decision support But so are these folks! Severe Weather Operations - our bread and butter!

27. Decision Support Services We Have Challenges! • Explosion of (instantly available) information • Acceptance of the new interpretative role of the forecaster • Enhance our expertise (e.g., we need to be the best) • Our reach has been extended (the collaborative world) • Take advantage of this • Train and recruit necessary new skill sets • Talk to our core partners about DSS • 9-11 • Understand the environment in which many of our core partners operate • Use ICS ourselves where applicable • Train the way our partners do and train with them • Rapid technological advances • Increase our productivity (e.g., much smarter systems) • Provide/promote a two-way collaborative environment • The value of our science has improved • Continue to heavily invest in improvements • Population at risk • Utilize social and decision sciences to understand the risks and the impacts of decisions

28. SR Decision Support Program A First Step A (grassroots) effort to provide a spectrum of interpretative decision support services for core partners by Southern Region field offices

29. SR Decision Support Program What We Believe Future of NWS will be focused on supporting high impact events where weather is a factor. NWS will provide decision support services to core partners with a similar mission.

30. SR Decision Support Program We are here for you! We are trying a host of things in Southern Region… Graphicasts – what you need to know about an upcoming high impact weather in a picture or two

31. SR Decision Support Program We are here for you! We are trying a host of things in Southern Region… Multimedia Briefings and Webinars – short and to the point information about upcoming high impact weather

32. SR Decision Support Program We are here for you! We are trying a host of things in Southern Region… On-site support – Emergency Response Meteorologists (ERMets) ready to respond when core partners require expertise at the EOC or at an incident

33. SR Decision Support Program We are here for you! We are trying a host of things in Southern Region… Decision Support Web pages – one-stop shop for emergency management and first responders for weather-related situational awareness

34. Decision Support Services More Challenges • $$ • Schedules, shifts, human resource issues • Backroom operations support (science, systems, etc) • On-site support resources (travel, per diem funding, reimbursement) • Skill sets, abilities of employees • Pace of science, tech • Partnerships, relationships, collaborative environments • IT Security • Too much demand • Ourselves!

35. Decision Support Services Take Aways • Decision Support Services is just an evolution of our basic mission (the environment has changed!) • Southern Region is committed to supporting core partners (emergency managers, first responders, etc.) with high impact weather information • We have many challenges to get to where we need to be (and to keep up) • We are very interested in hearing (and learning) from you!