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SUPPORTED BY: StratPlan Jeff McCarthy Mott McDonald Goba

USING STATISTICS FOR LONG TERM SPATIAL PLANNING:  THE ILEMBE 2050 REGIONAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Tindall Kruger and Pravina Govender 13 September 2013. SUPPORTED BY: StratPlan Jeff McCarthy Mott McDonald Goba. ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY. THE 2050 PLAN – BASIC APPROACH.

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SUPPORTED BY: StratPlan Jeff McCarthy Mott McDonald Goba

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  1. USING STATISTICS FOR LONG TERM SPATIAL PLANNING:  THE ILEMBE 2050 REGIONAL SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT PLANTindall Kruger and PravinaGovender13 September 2013 SUPPORTED BY: StratPlan Jeff McCarthy Mott McDonald Goba ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY

  2. THE 2050 PLAN – BASIC APPROACH • The Ilembe Regional Spatial Development Plan is intended to provide long term spatial planning guidance to all stakeholders in Ilembe.   • The District is a recognised growth node in South Africa.  For the purpose of the plan the Ilembe Team (supported by Iyer Urban Design Studio and StratPlan), based on a range of statistics, explored various growth scenarios for the District.   • The selection of the preferred scenario was influenced by socio-economic development trends and the proposed development trajectory reflected in the 2012 National Development Plan.   • The selected High Road Scenario was further developed to better understand future population profiles, housing demand, and economic development in the District.   • This understanding formed the basis for the preparation of short (2020), medium (2030) and long term (2050) spatial development plans.

  3. USING STATISTICS – THE APPROACH • Step 1: Developing the Scenarios • Step 2: Unpacking the Scenarios • Step 3: Understanding the Implications • Step 4: Determining the Spatial Impact • Step 5: Developing the Plan

  4. STEP 1 - DEVELOPING THE SCENARIOS SCENARIO 1 LOW ROAD SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 HIGH ROAD Assumptions: • The economy stagnates growing at between 1-2% • HIV/AIDS continue to have major impact • New urban / housing development limited Assumptions: • The economy grows at between 3-5% • Neighbouring areas low growth rates (in-migration) • The impact of HIV/AIDS on population growth has been significantly reduced • New urban / housing development Assumptions: • The economy grows at between 5-7% for an extended period • In-migration from neighbouring countries and Districts as a result of economic growth • As per previous Implications: • Current growth rates maintained Implications: • Above average population growth rates Implications: • High population growth rates 1% POPULATION GROWTH PA 2% POPULATION GROWTH PA 3% POPULATION GROWTH PA / 5% ECON. GROWTH

  5. STEP 2 – UNPACKING THE SCENARIOS Sc 3: Nearly 4 times the current population by 2050 Sc 3: Double the current population by 2030 Sc 2: Double the current population Sc 1: Approx. 300k increase Note: In the period mid-1990 to mid-2000s RSAs nine major cities grew at a rate of 1.92%

  6. STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS Scattered rural population remains stagnant or decline (0% growth) A further 1.2m people to be accommodated in urban areas (3.9% growth over term) A further 120k people to be accommodated in rural areas (1% growth, not considering backlog)

  7. STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS • SOME ASSUMPTIONS FOR ILEMBE: • In 40 years the current 0-20 year old will be the 40-60 group • Fertility rates will decrease and in-migration will increase • HIV/AIDS will continue to impact more on current 20-40 group, • as well as on 0-20 group • Male / female distribution will become more equal (currently 45:55 in some areas)

  8. INFORMING THE THINKING Increasing crude death rates (per 1 000 of population) Declining fertility rates (Substantially) lower life expectancy An ageing population

  9. STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS

  10. STEP 3 – UNDERSTANDING THE IMPLICATIONS DISTRIBUTION

  11. STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (HOUSING) Note: Household size: 3.8 people

  12. STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (ECONOMIC) GVA IN R’000,000

  13. STEP 4 – THE SPATIAL IMPACT (ECONOMIC) MANUFACTURING EXAMPLE: • 7 076 ha industrial land generates R31 billion in eThekwini (R4.4 million per hectare) • 4 752 ha industrial land will generate R20.9 billion in iLembe • Current supply in Ilembe is 807 ha • Additional demand for 2050 is 3 954 ha

  14. STEP 5 – THE PLAN (EXISTING) Existing Denser Development is shown in BROWN

  15. STEP 5 – THE PLAN (SHORT TERM) Short-Term Development is shown in ORANGE

  16. STEP 5 – THE PLAN (MEDIUM TERM) Medium-Term Development is shown in YELLOW

  17. STEP 5 – THE PLAN (LONG TERM) Long-Term Development is shown in LIGHT YELLOW

  18. THE LESSONS LEARNT • Using statistical analysis as a tool for long term spatial planning is essential as it introduces reality into the process (something that is often lacking in these processes) • Accurately predicting the future is impossible, but starting from a solid information base increases the probability of getting it right • The iLembe 2050 Plan provides decision makers with a firm foundation for guiding future spatial development

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