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Climate Outlook – November 2012

Climate Outlook – November 2012. Brief, Weak El Niño SST Condition in Jul, Aug, Sep Ended at Unusual Time. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. ASO 2012 SST forecast from Jun. Correlation ( w.r.t . map average) Glob 0.55 Trop 0.51 Uncentered correlation

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Climate Outlook – November 2012

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  1. Climate Outlook – November 2012 Brief, Weak El Niño SST Condition in Jul, Aug, Sep Ended at Unusual Time

  2. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season ASO 2012 SST forecast from Jun Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.55 Trop 0.51 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average): Glob 0.61 Trop 0.53 ASO 2012 SST obs anom (deg C)

  3. Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast ASO 2012 precip tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.002 (0.009) T 0.006 (0.016) Rate of Return: G 0.001 (0.009) T 0.004 (0.017) Heidke skill: G 0.010 (0.045) T 0.024 (0.071) GROC: G 0.523 (0.541) T 0.537 (0.565) ASO 2012 precip probab forecast from mid-Jul

  4. Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast ASO 2012 temp tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.179 (0.109) T 0.185 (0.160) Rate of Return: G 0.191 (0.106) T 0.191 (0.166) Heidke skill: G 0.399 (0.287) T 0.387 (0.373) GROC: G 0.673 (0.588) T 0.683 (0.639) ASO 2012 temp probab forecast from mid-Jul

  5. Last week’s SST anomaly | | | | | | | | | | | -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

  6. Stronger El Niño El Nino La Nina StrongerLa Niña

  7. Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP La Nina signature in atmosphere weak El Nino signature in atmosphere

  8. Stronger La Niña ** ******** ***** ** Stronger El Niño

  9. mid-Aug

  10. mid-Sep

  11. mid-Oct

  12. mid-Nov

  13. Nov 2010 Nov 2011 Nov 2012 Enhanced trade winds Thermocline depth mixed, averaging near average Oceanic ENSO state: neutral(++)

  14. Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

  15. November 2012 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right) PLUS MEAN MINUS

  16. Tropical Cyclone ForecastsNovember 2012 NTC = Number of Tropical Cyclones ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

  17. Six IRI focus areas: 12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts RPSS GROC RPSS GROC score R G R G R G R G R G R G

  18. This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive: ……./tonyb/fctbriefingmonyr or ……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr

  19. Old one (but Indonesia may not be in right position)

  20. New one

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