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Environmental Futures

Environmental Futures. Emile Servan-Schreiber, Ph.D. NewsFutures.com. Can betting markets help save the world?. Consensus Machines. Markets aggregate Dispersed information Various interpretations Conflicting beliefs Consensus (trading price). Forecasting Tool.

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Environmental Futures

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  1. Environmental Futures Emile Servan-Schreiber, Ph.D. NewsFutures.com

  2. Can betting marketshelp save the world?

  3. Consensus Machines Markets aggregate Dispersed information Various interpretations Conflicting beliefs Consensus (trading price)

  4. Forecasting Tool Futures markets aggregate Dispersed information Various interpretations Conflicting beliefs Consensus Prediction (trading price)

  5. Prediction Markets

  6. What is a Prediction Market? Contract is worth $100 if it happens, or nothing if it doesn’t. trading price  event probability

  7. Are Predictions Accurate?

  8. Market Price = Event Probability Trading prices really do correspond to observed event frequencies Source: SCIENCE, Feb 1, 2001

  9. More Accurate Than Polls Consensus of expert stakeholders vs “representative” population sample Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

  10. More Accurate Than Polls Consensus of expert stakeholders vs “representative” population sample Source: Iowa Electronic Markets

  11. Why are MarketsMore Accurate than Polls? • Polls average over individual opinions and do not engage the intellect. • Markets engage people into a conversation with one another and forces them to come to a consensus (aka the trading price).

  12. Prediction Markets Help Most When: • Information/expertise is distributed among many, hard to gather, or difficult to verbalize (implicit knowledge). • New information comes in continuously, requiring frequent updates of forecasts. • Information is subject to various interpretations.

  13. Environmental Futures

  14. Increase or decrease this year? • World’s Ecological Footprint • Insurance industry payments due to natural disasters • Amazon forest fires • Environmentally induced migration • Size of the Ozone Hole • Global temperature • Etc.

  15. Will happen this year? • Kyoto becomes effective • China becomes a net importer of food • Man-made famine • Oil spill • Etc.

  16. Applications • Environmental Security Dashboard: • Continuous, real-time monitoring of consensus estimates about expected environmental outcomes. • Decision Support: • Decision markets can evaluate costs/benefits of intervention scenarios: What if Bush is re-elected? What if the U.S. ratifies Kyoto?

  17. Benefits

  18. General Public Markets • Deepen awareness of the problems, solutions, and progress made (or unmade). • People become stakeholders in a personal sense. • Feel the public pulse in real-time;

  19. Experts-Only Markets • Cut through the fog of scientific debate with clear, quantified consensus signals. • Rapidly, collectively estimate various intervention (or lack thereof) scenarii. • Help indentify those who tend to predict correctly, sideline those who tend to be wrong.

  20. Insiders Markets • Hedge against various environmental outcomes. • Generate valuable insiders signals.

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