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Dennis Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development

On the Other Hand. Wisconsin Economics Association. Dennis Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development November 8, 2013. ECONOMIC RECOVERY HOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES. 2. ECONOMIC RECOVERY HOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES. 3.

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Dennis Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development

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  1. On the Other Hand Wisconsin Economics Association Dennis Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Department of Workforce Development November 8, 2013

  2. ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES 2

  3. ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES 3

  4. JOBS RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES

  5. GDP = C + I + G + (I-M)

  6. RECESSION COMPARISONSLAGGING ACROSS ALL INDICATORS 6 Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

  7. It is difficult to increase consumption when you: have stagnant income, are losing wealth, paying down debt, increasing savings, and are paying more for food and gas.

  8. REAL ESTATE EQUITY GETTING A NICE REBOUND

  9. SECURITIES’ APPRECIATION IS GETTING US BACK OVER THE HUMP

  10. MANAGING RISK WHERE IS THE INCENTIVE TO EXPAND

  11. JOBS GROWTH SCENARIOSCONTRAINTS ON ECONOMY Thousands 5.5% 6.5% 7.5% 8.5% 9.5% Q1 ‘17 Q1 ‘15 Unemployment rates assume a participation rate of 63.5% Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

  12. WISCONSIN JOBS ARE SHOWING A STEADY CLIMB

  13. WISCONSIN MANUFACTURING JOBS ARE ALSO ON THE UPTICK

  14. WISCONSIN JOBS RECOVERYVERSUS PREVIOUS CYCLES 14

  15. AGE COHORTSTREATED DIFFERENTLY 15 Source: OEA, BLS

  16. EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT STEADIER WORK

  17. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS HAVE RECOVERED VALUE

  18. OVERALL NON-CORPORATE PRIVATE BALANCE SHEET IMPROVING

  19. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT ON THE OTHER HAND

  20. SWAPPING SECURITIES FOR CASH

  21. EXTENDING CREDIT BANKS ARE RETICENT TO LEND FUNDS Source: Federal Reserve Board, Data Download Program

  22. STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENTS HAVE LARGELY RECOVERED

  23. STATE AND LOCAL SPENDING ON A NEW TRAJECTORY

  24. He said, She said.

  25. HE SAID, HEY BABE, LOOK THE ECONOMY IS GROWING NICELY

  26. SHE SAID, WE STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO, DEAR

  27. HE SAID LOOK HONEY, HOUSING MARKET IS UP NICELY

  28. SHE SAID SWEETHEART, WE’RE NEVER GETTING BACK THERE

  29. HE SAID, SUGAR, JOBS ARE CLIMBING thousands

  30. SHE SAID, DARLING, DON’T PISS OFF YOUR BOSS

  31. HE SAID, LOVE, THEY’RE JACKING UP WAGES EVERYWHERE • The minimum wage will increase in 10 states on January 1, 2013. • Employers to be more generous with pay raises next year, CNNMoney. • An improving job market is boosting wages, Herald and News. • SHRM consensus is for an average budget increase of 3 percent. • Hay Group says 3 percent salary increases in 2013.

  32. SHE SAID, JIM, GET A GRIP

  33. HE SAID, DREAMBOAT, WE’RE GONNA BE RICH INCOME GROWTH (Q1:2010 – Q3:2012) Source: BEA, OEA

  34. SHE SAID, WILL YOU WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE

  35. Who is in demand?

  36. MOST JOB OPENINGS BY OCCUPATION *Job Openings includes both turnover and new jobs that are created.

  37. MOST JOB OPENINGS ON JOB CENTER OF WISCONSIN

  38. MOST OFTEN HEARD POSITION CHALLENGES CHARACTERISTICS

  39. WHAT TRAINING TO PURSUE FIVE MAKE ALL THREE LISTS

  40. Questions ?

  41. CONTACT INFORMATION • Dennis Winters • Phone: 608-267-3262 • Email: dennis.winters@dwd.wisconsin.gov • Website:www.dwd.wisconsin.gov • OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea

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