Problem-Oriented Approaches to Crime Places: Current & Future Directions

Problem-Oriented Approaches to Crime Places: Current & Future Directions John E. Eck, Ph.D. University of Cincinnati School of Criminal Justice Conference on Innovative Approaches to Crime Control 9 July 2010 Rydges South Bank Hotel, Brisbane If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going.Professor Irwin Corey

Goldstein – The major police dysfunction is theMeans over Ends Syndrome Worrying over what to do while overlooking what is to be achieved.

The Development & Context of Problem-Oriented Policing US Homicides/100 K Problem-Oriented Policing & Environmental Criminology ABA Studies Discretion Crisis Era of good news research Period of bad news research Rising Place Consciousness 1st POP Conference POP Center incorporated Goldstein publishes POP article Cohen & Felson publish RAT Newport News POP project begins POP Guides begun Goldstein with Chicago PD Strategy proliferation Information invasion Period of police anxiety Era of Professional Policing 1950 - 2008

POP is Evidence Intensive What is the evidence of a problem? What is the evidence of its causes? SCANNING ANALYSIS What is the evidence it worked? ASSESSMENT RESPONSE What is the evidence for a solution?

Handler Guardian Offender Target crime Place Manager POP Facilitated the Rise of Place-Based Thinking • Places are important because: • They can facilitate crime • Crime is concentrated at a few • Police know more about them • They yield practical solutions

Crime is Concentrated at a Few PlacesA UNIVERSAL LAW OF CRIME* A few places have a great deal of crime Amount of Crime Most places have little or NO crimes Highest PLACES RANKED BY NUMBERS OF CRIME Lowest (none) * And maybe everything else.

Example: Crime Concentration in Cincinnati Apartment Buildings 2006 10,672 total apartment buildings experienced 4,615 crimes The worst 10% of addresses have 30.88% of crimes 77.05% of apartment buildings had no crimes

What is a Place? Neighborhoods are NOT Places Street segments might be places Hot spots are not places, but usually contain hot places. Addresses, corners, parcels etc • ADDRESSES: • Small & simple • Fewer variables • Someone in charge • NON-ADDRESSES: • Aggregations of addresses • Many variables & complex • No one in charge

What Place Managers Do* • Organize Space – control of physical features • Regulate Conduct – encouragement and discouragement of behaviors • Control Access – who gets in • Acquire Resources – how it stays in business Possible causes of the problem & things that need changing Sources of resistance & leverage *From Tamara Madensen

Why Should We Focus on Places & Managers? • Place managers have the ability to make the work of criminals hard or easy. • Most make the criminal’s work hard. • A few make it easy – they facilitate crime. • Changing their behavior reduces crime. Hot Place Offender Manager Target

POP and Shifting Responsibility • Whose problem is it? police or enablers? • Should the public subsidize enablers? • Should enablers take responsibilityfor the problem, and become preventers? • What is the best way to convert enablersto preventers?

Crime is Pollution* = My daughter, who graduated from college this year, helped me with much of what follows. * Acknowledgements to Graham Farrell and Graeme Newman.

Internalizing Crime Costs • Place users, neighbors & government bear the costs of crime. • When crime is produced by businesses • Prices of goods and services under priced, or • Owners increase profits from exporting crime costs • Get place managers to assume the costs of the crime they produce – they will then produce less.

Principles • Those who enable crime should bear some of the costs of crime. • Those who do not enable crime should not bear the costs. • Compliance should be rewarded, to the extent it is successful. • Non-compliance should not be rewarded.

Means v Ends Strategies MEANS ENDS Crimes • Number of employees • Barriers to access • Security features • Lighting • Recording retention • Training proficiency • Physical layout • Other__________ Before Mean Target Level After Mean Time Set performance target for crimes that must be met and enforce compliance (means for compliance are mostly irrelevant). Set standards that must be met and enforce compliance with standards.

Some Heretical Remarks Against Evidence Government funded Evidence based* place practices are for the most part: • Oversold – we have far less evidence than proponents suggest. • Impractical -- there are too many interventions and situations to study. • Slow -- any single study takes years to produce results. • Unsustainable -- the funding does not exist and is unlikely to come along. • Uncertain – they are usually based on a few studies, that are too general. • Unsound– they based on the misguided notion that we prove what works rather than reject what does not. • Unsuitable– they do not work for the circumstances where government interventions are most needed: high harm / low probability events. • Inefficient – most place interventions are small scale and locally adapted, so evidence based practices will not pay off. • Unfair-- they subsidize private entities who could pay for the research, if they found it helpful. QED: Private entities should pay for evidence, or accept the risk of bad practices, rather than publicly fund academics to slowly produce uncertain evidence. * As advocated by the Campbell Collaborative, for example.

Alternatives for Crime Place Regulation Ends/Performance Means/Standards

The Evolution of Policing Crime Places Evidence of tactical effectiveness less important I – POP ? Evidence of tactical effectiveness very important Evidence of tactical effectiveness unimportant Police Regulate Outcome Performance PROBLEM-ORIENTED POLICING Police Regulate Standards of Prevention HOT SPOTS POLICING Police Repeatedly Address Problems STANDARD POLICING Leading edge Police Crackdown on Hotspots Police Handle Calls Modal style Trailing edge

Principles of Place Prevention • Focus on addresses – the bigger the area the less information and control. • Do the worst first – its more effective, more efficient, and reduces side effects. • Hold owners accountable – their actions (or inactions) facilitate crime. • Measure performance – provides flexibility and assures improvements.

What is the Future of Policing, if this Works? • Less crime at places • Less concentration of crime at places • Lower utility of place & geographic analysis • Greater randomness of crime geographically • Uncertain value of victim and offender focus • Greater emphasis on reactive policing strategies • Goal of policing is to eliminate patterns & • Makes policing more traditional

Problem-Oriented Approaches to Crime Places: Current & Future Directions