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Linac Proton Driver Cost Estimate

Linac Proton Driver Cost Estimate. Rich Stanek March 15 , 2005. Outline. Summary of the Linac Cost Estimate What’s in the Estimate Cost Drivers Detailed Cost Estimate Review The Next Steps Conclusions. Assembling the Cost Estimate.

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Linac Proton Driver Cost Estimate

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  1. Linac Proton Driver Cost Estimate Rich Stanek March 15 , 2005

  2. Outline • Summary of the Linac Cost Estimate • What’s in the Estimate • Cost Drivers • Detailed Cost Estimate Review • The Next Steps • Conclusions Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  3. Assembling the Cost Estimate • Linac cost estimate is developed in a WBS format (Excel) • It is separated into two major categories • Civil Construction and Technical Systems • Component cost estimates are based on • Actual costs for existing equipment • Vendor quotes • Scaling from TESLA, SNS, FNAL/MI, and J PARC costs • Detailed engineering estimates and • High level estimates • Labor estimates are made using Eng, Tech and Phys categories only and using TD SWF averages (actual) • Detailed contingency analysis has not yet been performed • Costs are shown in 2004 dollars without G&A or contingency, unless explicitly noted • G&A and contingency are applied at the highest level of the estimate to arrive at an estimated Total Cost for the PD Project Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  4. Review of the PD/Linac Cost * Davis Bacon labor shows up as M&S # G&A rate will be lower on large POs Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  5. What’s IN / What’s NOT • IN • All costs associated with civil construction, power & utilities • Costs for procuring, fabricating and installing all technical components up to and including injection into MI • Costs to set up tests of production cryomodules in SMTF (but not the costs of operating SMTF) • Cost of Project Management (including reviews) • NOT (all budgeted separately) • Costs associated with MI Upgrades (ex. RF Upgrade) • Costs for setting up SMTF and the cryomodule factories • Costs associated with ongoing and near-term R&D efforts • Costs for spares Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  6. Cost Drivers Total = $319M (without G&A and contingency) Cost Drivers are the Cryomodules, Civil Construction and Cryogenics Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  7. Assembling the Cost Estimate 2 • 2.0 Civil Construction • PD Civil Working Group meets weekly => lots of interaction between technical, civil and installation personnel • Looked at different geographical locations for the Linac • Good layout for the technical components • Ability for adjustments and expansion in the future (if desired) • Minimal environmental impact • Viable routing for utilities (power, chilled water, communications) • Reasonable impact on existing facilities (TeV crossing & MI tie in) • Cost generated using standard FESS methodology • Nothing new about the construction techniques • Using 20% EDIA (in-house) and 15% EDIA (contracted) • Based on DOE recommendations for projects at this stage Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  8. Civil Construction Summary EA work will begin soon to assure no negative impact on cost/schedule Enclosures @ MI depth cost based on MI actuals Building Cost: $315/sf high bay/industrial $215/sf office/tech area Add in extras Absorber cost scaled from MI Numbers do not include G&A or contingency Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  9. Example of FESS Worksheet Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  10. Assembling the Cost Estimate 3 • 3.0 Front End ($ 8.1M) => 3.8% of Technical Systems • Current cost estimate based on cold option (use of cold SSR and DSR) • Mostly high level estimates (Level 2 or 3) • Draws on experience at FNAL, SNS, JPARC and scaling from ACCSYS PL-7 Linac • Labor estimate is also high level with SWF/M&S ratio = 73% Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  11. Assembling the Cost Estimate 4 • 4.0 Cryomodules ($101M) => Clearly the #1 Cost Driver • M&S Costs ($86.7M) • Based on RFQ (~55%), vendor communications,TESLA/SNS costs and Eng est. • EDIA (Design Phase) Costs ($3.3M) • 500 drawings/CM design x 20 hrs/drawing (CMS, LHC experience @ FNAL) • Assembly Costs($10.7M)=> assembly crew = 18.5 techs (combination of assembly, QC, alignment and testing personnel, spread over 2 facilities) • Spokes 7 weeks/CM • Elliptical 5 weeks/CM • Assume 4 FTE engineers associated with assembly teams • Installation Costs ($1.1M) • $10K M&S (rigging/transportation) + 2 techs for 2 weeks + EDIA • Key decision that needs to be made (Value Engineering Stage) • Spokes versus Elliptical cavities for low Beta (.47 & .61) Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  12. Roll up of Cryomodule Costs • Cryomodule costs are segmented by type • 1 SSR, 2 DSR, 6 TSR, 6 Beta=.81, 36 Beta=1 + 1 Cu cavity (Debuncher – H20) • M&S costs vary by type although format (cost breakdown) is the same • M&S (SSR) = $ 3.365M M&S (Beta=1) = $ 1.53M Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  13. Assembling the Cost Estimate 5 • 5.0 Cryogenic System ($28.6M) => 13.4% of Tech Systems • FNAL AD/Cryogenics Department leading the effort • Cost estimate based on the estimated heat loads (TSR option) and vendor communication as well as analysis of recent procurements using an LHC model for refrigeration cost versus capacity Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  14. Assembling the Cost Estimate 6 • 6.0 Modulators & Pulse Transformers ($13.9M) => 6.5% of Technical Systems • Modulator cost based on actual purchase and assembly of units by AD/EED which have been shipped to DESY/TESLA TTF. • Credit taken for quantity/price reductions • Assembly cost set equal to M&S cost (rule of thumb based on years of experience building this type of equipment) • Assume major assembly work gets done on outside by vendors Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  15. Assembling the Cost Estimate 7 • 7.0 Klystrons ($6.9M) => 3.2% of Technical Systems • Current estimate includes three 325MHz Klystrons for Front End and TSR option cavities and ten 1300MHz Klystrons • Several possible vendors • Costs based on actual costs (TESLA purchases) Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  16. Assembling the Cost Estimate 8 • 8.0 RF Distributions ($18.1M) => 8.5% of Technical Systems • Includes both 325 MHz and 1300 MHz distribution systems • Most components are standard industrial items • Fast ferrite phase shifters are one of the key parts in this system • Tests at FNAL have successfully demonstrated performance • R&D continues and vendor quotes exist for present configurations • TSR Option is assumed and costed Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  17. Assembling the Cost Estimate 9 • 9.0 Utilities ($6.7M) => 3.2% of Technical Systems • LCW System (Linac, Klystron Gallery, Pump Room and Dump) • Vacuum System (ion pumps, gauges, controls and leak checking) • LCW system is simplified due to a steady repeating pattern • Allows for prefabrication of assemblies • Main LCW headers could be added to the civil outfitting contracts (if this is more efficient or saves costs) • LCW installation is assumed Davis Bacon work (M&S) • Labor estimate has 20% scope contingency included in the numbers Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  18. Assembling the Cost Estimate 10 • 10.0 Instrumentation, Controls & Power Supplies ($11M) => 5.2% of Technical Systems • An example of an estimate that is done at a high level • Needs to be better defined => will establish a Working Group to look at all aspects of Instrumentation & Controls for the SC Linac • Present estimates based on FNAL experience (Engineering Estimate) • Estimate for Power Supplies for the Front End magnets is more detailed (only a small % of the costs = $336K) Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  19. Assembling the Cost Estimate 11 • 11.0 8 GeV Transfer Line & Absorbers ($8.5M) => 3.5% of Technical Systems • Magnets (dipoles, C magnets, quads and trims) • Power supplies • Vacuum system (ion pumps, valves, gauges, controls & leak checking) • Instrumentation (BPM, BLM, CT, PM) • Dumps (8 GeV Primary, Injection Foil) • Foil Changer • Collimation System • Cost based on current technical design using FNAL/TD methodology for magnet cost estimation & engineer estimates Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  20. Assembling the Cost Estimate 12 • 12.0 Infrastructure & Integration ($6.9M) => 3.3% of Technical Systems • Picks up things that everyone else forgets • Interlocks (very detailed estimate based on present layout) • Installation Coordination • Including Alignment • Misc. Cabling & Electrical Integration • Support for Testing in SMTF • Most of the items are engineering estimates • Sum of the last three items • 24 FTE of Engineering ($3.1M) • 36 FTE of Technician Support ($2.9M) • 21 FTE of Physicist time (Priceless) Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  21. Main Injector Upgrade • The cost of the MI Upgrade is not included in the Linac cost estimate • The Plan is still evolving and a number of the upgrades will be part of the Proton Plan • A major item of the MI Upgrade is RF Upgrade • Dual PA Tube Upgrade - $12M (Tech) + $7M (Civil) • Allows beam power up to 1 MW • New RF cavities (more ambitious) - $20M (Tech) + $15M (Civil) • Allows beam power up to 2 MW • Improve electrical/power systems => $6M • Reduce MI cycle time to 1 sec. & achieve beam power > 2 MW • Rough estimates (just for order of magnitude scale) • Still unclear as to exactly what will be in the Proton Plan Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  22. Next Steps in Project Planning • Starting with the current cost estimate • Develop (in more detail) areas that have lump sum estimates • Choose a standard methodology for risk evaluation and contingency analysis • Develop the detailed list of tasks that need to be accomplished to complete the project • Develop durations, schedules and resources needed for each individual tasks • Load into Open Plan and create a Resource Loaded Schedule using standard resource categories • Adopt the “Lab standard” EVMS (Cobra) • Establish a Document Control & Database System • Set up a Project Management Plan and Project Office Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  23. Value Engineering Analysis • As the Proton Driver Project moves farther along, the civil construction plan as well as the designs of all technical components will undergo a Value Engineering Analysis • Technical/Cost/Schedule trade-offs will be examined and analyzed to arrive at a final design that is both technically and financially optimized • Examples of the types of analysis that will be done: • Size of tunnels/buildings/access ways versus intended use • Reuse of existing equipment (ex. cryogenic) • Decision of TSR vs. elliptical cavities for the low Beta region • To first order approximation this is cost neutral (technical/schedule?) Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

  24. Conclusions • The present Linac cost estimate establishes a reasonable and believable Range of Values for the cost of a SC Proton Driver at Fermilab • It is the first step in establishing a proposed baseline cost estimate for the PD Project • Coupled with a fully developed Technical Design Report, a risk based Contingency Analysis, and a Resource Loaded Schedule, this cost estimate will form the basis for managing the Proton Diver Project at Fermilab Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

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