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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

Gu 2011. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia. 17 August , 2011. Information for Better Livelihoods. Northwest. Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC. EUROPEAN COMMISSION. Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations .

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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

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  1. Gu 2011 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia 17 August , 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Northwest Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

  2. Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations Field staff had normal access to all livelihoods in the Northwest regions in Gu 2011 Assessment

  3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income • Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income • 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugaal Valley, and Golis/Guban Pastoralists) • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products • Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and own production • Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat • 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Togdheer and Northwest Agro-pastoral) • Togdheer Agro-Pastoral: are more pastoral, however there is an increasing dependency on crop and fodder production. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment and fodder sales; Main source of food: Own crop and food purchase • Northwest (W/Galbeed and Awdal) Agro-pastoral: are more agriculturists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; Main sources of food: own crop production and purchase.

  4. Climate Gu 2011Seasonal Performance • Overall Statement: Localized normal rains impacting positively rangeland and water resources in most livelihoods of the regions. • Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June 2011 ) • Start of Season: Started late, in 3rd dekad of April, in most parts of the Northwest zone, and were intermittent in May and June • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Duration and distribution of the rainfall was average to poor in most livelihoods of EastGoils, Nugaal valley, Sool Plateau and Hawd (Togdheer, Sanag and Sool regions). Regions with some dry spells: Sool, Sanaag and Togdheer and parts of West Golis of Awdal and W/Galbeed • Normal rains in livelihood zones: Most livelihoods received localized normal rains ( 100-125mm) • Below normal rains in livelihood zones: West Sool Plateau, western upper Nugal, central Nugal Valley and southwestern part of Hawd of Togdheer (40-60mm) • Generally, pasture and water conditions are average in most livelihoods Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

  5. Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

  6. Civil Insecurity • Civil Security Situation: Overall the security situation in the Northwest Zone remains stable. • Lasanod town: Tensions with increasing instability and targeting killings of prominent figures. • Kalshaale and Ceel Berdaale issues of land resources are diffused and peace efforts are ongoing • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • Restricted movement of transport from Burao to Buhoodle areas. Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

  7. Agriculture Cereal Production

  8. Agriculture Trends in Gu/Karan 2011 Crop Establishment Estimates

  9. Agriculture Gu 2011 Local Cereal inflow from Ethiopia

  10. Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum) - Increasing Trend Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Burao Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor 9kg of white sorghum /daily wage) in Jul ’11 versus 12kg in Jul ’10 - Decreasing Trend

  11. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Hargeysa Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum) - Increasing Trend Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor Kg of sorghum/ daily wage) From 10kg in June’10 to 8kg in June’11 - Decreasing Trend

  12. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July ’11 • Average performance of Gu 2011 season in most pastoral livelihoods resulted normal pasture and water availability. • Average livestock body conditions for all species • Below average milk production due to low camel calving (high camel abortion in March 30-40%) and moderate increase in milk price (10%) since June 2010 • Opportunistic livestock migration (parts of Golis, Sool and Hawd

  13. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

  14. Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade - Burao Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat (Rice kg/head) -Decreasing Trend

  15. LivestockRegional Trends in Livestock Prices & Terms of Trade - Erigavo Regional Trends in Goat Local Quality Price and Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat Local Quality - Declining Trend

  16. Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Vs Exchange Rate • Slight increase in Import Commodity Prices (last six months) • Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices: • Appreciation of SLSh • Increased global food prices • Increased fuel prices • Increased transit of imported commodities to neighboring Ethiopia • Traders reluctant to reduce imported food prices respective to decline of US Dollar

  17. Livestock Trends in Livestock Exports – Berbera Port

  18. Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Poor Pasture –Hawd Togdheer, FSNAU, July 2011 Livestock Carcass-Nugaal Ainabo, FSNAU, July 2011 Poor Pasture –Nugal Valley,-Xudun, FSNAU July 2011 Good body & pasture condition, Hawd Harg, FSNAU July 2011

  19. Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Destitute HHs in Garadag- Nugaal Valley, FSNAU, July 2011 Poor pasture –Sool Plateau, Ceerigabo, FSNAU, July 2011 Good Sorghum- Beer Village –Togdheer-FSNAU, July 2011

  20. Summary of Nutrition Findings in NW Regions (Somaliland)

  21. Northwest Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, April 2011 Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 Aggravating factors: Limited milk availability in most of the pastoral LHZs due to poor conceptions in Deyr 2010 High morbidity - outbreak of measles and dengue fever and increased incidences of diarrhoea in pastoral LHZs Inappropriate child feeding and care practices across livelihood Poor access to sanitation facilities and safe water in rural LHZs Lack of seasonal labour opportunities among the IDPs and reduced purchasing power affecting food access Mitigating factors: Increased humanitarian programmes in the region (health, feeding, WASH) Child Health Days conducted in the area in the months of June/July 2011 Improved milk access in Hawd of W. Galbeed

  22. NORTHWESTSummary Progression of Rural IPC Situation • Key IPC Reference Outcomes • Urban Population: Sool 100% P AFLC; Sanaag 75% P AFLC, 25%P HE, 25% M AFLC • Rural Population: Hawd  (Togdheer and Sool) -100%P AFLC; Hawd (Hargeisa) -BFI; Sool Plateau -75% P HE, 25% P AFLC; Nugaal Valley -50%P HE ; 50% P AFLC; East Golis -100% P AFLC; Togdheer AP - BFI; Northwest Agropastoral -BFI; West Golis Guban-BFI • Acute malnutrition: Mixed trends with most livelihoods showing significant deterioration while others indicating either sustained or improved situtaion. West Golis and  Nugal Valley livelihoods has significantly deteriorated from Serious to  Very Critical levels while Sool Plateau has declined from Serious to Critical • Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 Kcal ppp day • Water Access: Average of 7.5-15 ltrs ppp day ( human usage only) • Destitution/Displacement: Predominantly stable security situation with increasing pastoral destitution in mainly in Nugaal valley • Coping: Distress strategies and high indebtedness for food and water expenses during prolonged Jilaal season • Livelihood Assets: Accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access • Main Contributing Factors: • Below normal rainfall in East-Golis, parts of Sool Plateau and Nugal valley • Livestock death in Hawd (Togdheer, Sool regions) , Nugal valley, Sool Plateau and East-Golis and considerably reduced livestock holding among the poor • Sales of breeding animals among the poor HHs (Nugal, Sool, Hawd of Togdheer) due to lack of saleable animals • Poor milk production (camel) in all pastoral areas of Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions as a result of high rate of miscarriages during harsh Jilaal season • Reduced household income from livestock and livestock product (milk) sales • Decline in terms of trade of local goat/cereals (119kg/head in June 2010 to 58kg in June 2011) MAP 1: IPC, April 2011 MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation

  23. NORTHWEST Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihoods

  24. NORTHWEST Rural Population in Crisis by Districts

  25. NORTHWEST Urban Population in Crisis

  26. The End

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