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Indonesia’s current account challenge

Indonesia’s current account challenge. Part 1 – The current economic environment. Richard Dutu Economist, Indonesia Desk OECD Economic Department. The current economic environment. GDP growth, 2002-2013. GDP growth has been trending down recently. Average GDP per capita growth, 2002-2012.

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Indonesia’s current account challenge

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  1. Indonesia’s current account challenge Part 1 – The current economic environment Richard Dutu Economist, Indonesia DeskOECD Economic Department

  2. The current economic environment

  3. GDP growth, 2002-2013 GDP growth has been trending down recently.

  4. Average GDP per capita growth, 2002-2012 Yet Indonesia remains well placed regarding recent GDP/capita growth.

  5. Contributions to GDP growth, 2002-2012 Growth is supported by consumption as both investment and export growth have slowed.

  6. Commodity prices Metal price index Thermal coal prices Export growth is down due to lower commodity prices.

  7. Major trading partners Indonesia exports to the entire world, but China and Japan account for 27%.

  8. Credit to the economy Credit growth is strong and steady.

  9. Government fiscal balance, 1990-2013 The fiscal balance remains sustainable.

  10. Government debt, % of GDP of selected countries As is Indonesia’s government debt.

  11. Inflation, 2010-2014 Inflation is edging up, pushed by food prices.

  12. Inflation decomposition, 2010-2014 Although transportation, communication and finance have contributed recently.

  13. Exchange rate and international reserves, 2007-2014 The rupiah has depreciated dramatically in recent months.

  14. Interest rates, 2007-2014 And Bank Indonesia has had to raise rates.

  15. Change in 10-year bonds yield Indonesia’s yields have gone significantly higher than its neighbours.

  16. Equity prices, 2007-2014 Equities have underperformed in the region recently.

  17. Foreign capital flows in Rupiah portfolio, 2011-2013 Source: Bloomberg After recovering, capital inflows slowed in November.

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