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An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships?

An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships?. Dr. Walter Dabberdt Vaisala Chief Science Officer President, American Meteorological Society. AMS-PPP: April 22, 2008. The Quadruple Convergence. Urbanization. Population Growth. A Perfect Storm? (and the impact

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An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships?

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  1. An Increasingly Urban World – Needs and Opportunities for Partnerships? Dr. Walter Dabberdt Vaisala Chief Science Officer President, American Meteorological Society AMS-PPP: April 22, 2008

  2. The Quadruple Convergence Urbanization Population Growth A Perfect Storm? (and the impact on partnerships) Coastal Vulnerabilities Climate Change

  3. Ten(10) Largest Cities in 1000A.D. (M-Inhabitants) Sum - CY1000 (i=1,10) = 2.12M Source: Tertius Chandler: “4,000 Years of Urban Growth” (1987)

  4. Growth of Mega-Cities Sum – CY2015 (i=1,10) = 209.4M 68.3 (5) Sum – CY2000 (i=1,10) = 166.0M 266.7 (19) Source: UN Population Division, March 2000 379.3 (23) blue = coastal city (18) green = inland city (5)

  5. The March of Urbanization in the World (% global population) Today, 50% of the world’s population live in the cities and 1.3 million people move to the cities every week!

  6. Squatter Cities Kibera (Nairobi) One billion now live in squatter cities (1/6 of global population) Two billion more expected

  7. City-Atmosphere Interactions atmosphere impacts the city city impacts the atmosphere

  8. Tornado – Ft. Worth, TX (March 28, 2000) Path Length: Approximately 3 miles Path Width: 1/4 mileF-Scale: F1 (73-112mph) to F2 (113-157mph) simulation Source: North Central Texas Council of Governments March 28, 2000

  9. France -- Heat Wave (August 13-28, 2003 ) MODIS Imagery • 15,000 excess deaths in France • 30,000 excess deaths in N. Europe • Most in the cities Vegetation index anomaly Surface temperature anomaly Source: Zaitchik et al., 2006 Solid lines demarcate conventional climate zones.

  10. Hurricane Katrina (2005) – Coastal Vulnerability Courtesy of James Franklin, NHC

  11. Beijing -- Mega-City Smog

  12. Coastal Vulnerabilities • 53% U.S. population lives in coastal zone • 10 of 15 largest U.S. cities are coastal • Visitors swell coastal populations • Global Low-Level Coastal Zone: • ≤ 10m msl • 10% world population • 6% world urban population • 200M live ≤ 1m msl High-impact coastal zone

  13. Climate Change Impacts & the CitiesIPCC (FAR, 2007)

  14. Scale-Dependence of Weather Information Needs • Analysis/description of current atmospheric state • Nowcasting/very short-range forecasting (0+ to ~2 hrs) • Short-range mesoscale prediction (~3 to 48 hrs) mesoscale prediction Schematic illustration As the timescale of the prediction decreases -- toward analysis and short- term nowcasting – the observing and forecasting requirements become more application-specific Area (rel.) nowcasting Site of interest Time (rel.) analysis

  15. Urban Needs for Environmental Information • Urban dwellers have different weather information needs than their rural counterparts, due to the diversity of user groups and population sectors, which include: • the general public • air quality management agencies • water supply and sewage providers • electric power industry • fuel suppliers – natural gas, fuel oil, coal, gasoline • transportation sectors – aviation, marine, and surface • emergency response agencies • public safety agencies • insurance companies and underwriters • health care providers • recreation facility providers. The disparate groups of urban users and their weather information needs are a driving force for stronger partnerships among the public, private and academic sectors

  16. thank you! walter.dabberdt@vaisala.com

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