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Recent Trends in Poverty

Recent Trends in Poverty. Luke Sibieta Institute for Fiscal Studies 13 th March 2006. Headlines. Falling levels of relative poverty under Labour Compared to sharp rise under Thatcher Rapid falls in pensioner poverty Non-pensioners now more likely to be in poverty AHC than pensioners

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Recent Trends in Poverty

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  1. Recent Trends in Poverty Luke Sibieta Institute for Fiscal Studies 13th March 2006

  2. Headlines • Falling levels of relative poverty under Labour • Compared to sharp rise under Thatcher • Rapid falls in pensioner poverty • Non-pensioners now more likely to be in poverty AHC than pensioners • No fall in working-age non-parent poverty • No fall in proportion of individuals with incomes below 40% of the median

  3. Defining Poverty • Relative notion of poverty • Number of individuals in households below 60% of the BHC and AHC median • Income-based • Headcount: no account of depth • Snapshot: no account of length • No account of needs or public perceptions

  4. Poverty falls under Labour

  5. Pensioner poverty falls the most

  6. Why has pensioner poverty fallen? • More recent cohorts of pensioners less likely to be in poverty than earlier cohorts • Poverty falls as more recent cohorts make up a larger proportion of the pensioner population • Falling poverty rates within cohorts • Which effect is bigger?

  7. Why has pensioner poverty fallen? • Pensioner poverty AHC has fallen by 11 percentage points since 1996/97 • 8.3 percentage points from reduced risk of poverty within cohorts • 2.7 percentage points due to increased proportion from more recent cohorts

  8. Working-age non-parents

  9. Has poverty fallen for all thresholds?

  10. Summing up • A quarter of the population were in poverty AHC in 1996/97, now it is just under a fifth • Pensioner poverty AHC has fallen from 2.8 million in 1996/97 to 1.8 million in 2004/05 • No falls in poverty amongst working-age non parents, who make up 39% of the population • Little change in the proportion of individuals with incomes below about 40% of the median

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