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Lars Hoelgaard, vicegeneraldirektør

Hvordan ser den kommende reform af den fælles europæiske landbrugspolitik ud? Europa-Konference, Vejle, 29. oktober 2010. Lars Hoelgaard, vicegeneraldirektør Generaldirektoratet for landbrug og udvikling af landdistrikterne Europa-Kommissionen. Importance of agriculture in the EU territory.

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Lars Hoelgaard, vicegeneraldirektør

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  1. Hvordan ser den kommende reform af den fælles europæiske landbrugspolitik ud?Europa-Konference, Vejle, 29. oktober 2010 Lars Hoelgaard, vicegeneraldirektør Generaldirektoratet for landbrug og udvikling af landdistrikterne Europa-Kommissionen

  2. Importance of agriculture in the EU territory • 13.7 million farms (70% with less than 5 ha) • The agrifood sector has 17.5 million employees (7.7% of total employment)

  3. Recent evolution of agricultural input and output prices Source: Eurostat

  4. EU developments in agricultural income(agricultural income/AWU in real terms) EU-12 EU-15 Source: Eurostat

  5. Adjusted SPS Direct payments Income safety net Price support/ Quotas reform GAEC Competitiveness & innovation Environment and land management Quality of life, diversification CAP’en p.t. - instrumenter Income Markets Public goods Structural adjustment Rural development 5

  6. Markets Modulation Instrumenternes budgetvægt Pillar I Direct payments Pillar II Rural Development 6

  7. Evolution of CAP share in EU budget…

  8. … and alternative views on its cost CAP cost in 2009 (in absolute terms) CAP cost in 2009 (in relative terms) 41% of EU budget 0.5% of EU GDP Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development

  9. CAP reform fra Gul til Grøn WTO Box EU-12 EU-15 EU-27

  10. What are the objectives with the reform? Viable food production Sustainable management of natural resources Balanced territorial development • to contribute to farm income and limit its variability • to improve sector competitiveness and share in food chain value-added • to compensate areas with natural constraints • to guarantee the provision of public goods • to foster green growth through innovation • to pursue climate change mitigation and adaptation • to support rural vitality and employment • to promote diversification • to allow social and structural diversity in rural areas Common EU response needed

  11. Climate change- Possible impacts on EU agriculture ▲ Floods risk ▲ Hotter and drier summers ▲ Sea levels ▲ Risk crop pests, diseases ▲ Crop, forage yields ▼ Animal health, welfare ▼ Summer rainfall ▲ Winter storms, floods ▲ Length growing season, yields ▲ Suitable farmland ▲ Pests, diseases risks ▲ Winter rainfall, floods ▼ Summer rainfall ▲ Risk drought, water stress ▲ Soil erosion risk ▲ Yields, range of crops ▼ Water availability ▲ Risk drought, heat spells ▲ Risk soil erosion ▼ Growing season, crop yields ▼ Optimal crop areas Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on EEA reports, JRC and MS academic studies

  12. Average direct payments per potentially eligible area and beneficiaryDirect payments net ceilings fully phased-in (in 2016) 360 € = 2600 kr/ha Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development

  13. Relative situation of agricultural income in the EU Agricultural income level between Member States (2009) Income gap with the rest of the economy (average 2005-2007) Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat data

  14. What policy instruments? Better targeted to objectives Based on two pillar structure Direct payments Market measures Rural development • Redistribution • Redesign • Better targeting • Market orientation • Streamline and simplification • Improved food chain functioning • Environment, climate change and innovation as guideline themes • Improved coherence with other EU policies • More effective delivery mechanisms • Address risk management • New distribution criteria

  15. 4c. What policy options? Continue the reform process by introducing further gradual changes while adjusting the most pressing shortcomings (e.g. more equity in the distribution of direct payments) Option 1 ‘Adjusting’ Capture the opportunity for reform ensuring that CAP becomes more sustainable and balanced (between policy objectives, MS and farmers) through more targeted measures Option 2 ‘Balancing’ More fundamental reform focusing entirely on environmental and climate change objectives through rural development, moving away from income support and most market measures Option 3 ‘Refocusing’

  16. What policy options? • More equitable distribution among MS and among farmers • More equitable distribution among MS and among farmers • Greening of direct payments • Capping of payments • Small farmers • Gradually phase out direct payments Direct payments • Streamlining and simplification of existing measures • Streamlining and simplification of existing measures • Phase-out most measures • Keep disturbance clause for severe crises Market measures • Continue emphasis on climate change, biodiversity, bio energy and innovation • Importance of environment, restructuring and innovation, local initiatives • Risk management tools and income stabilisation tool • New distribution criteria • Primarily focus on measures linked to the environment and the delivery of public goods Rural development Option 1 ‘Adjusting’ Option 3 ‘Refocusing’ Option 2 ‘Balancing’

  17. Share of DP and total subsidies in agricultural income EU-15 EU-12 Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development

  18. Conclusions from Scenar 2020 - II “Finally, the removal of Pillar 1 payments under the Liberalisation scenario would also translate into reduced agricultural land use, as an important source of revenue for farming is removed. Reducing first pillar payments leads, on the one hand, to intensification of the use of land in the core production areas to earn a decent living and, on the other hand, to land abandonment in marginal production areas, as it becomes unprofitable in these regions.”

  19. Tidsplan (1) • Kommunikation 17. november 2010 • Forslag – juridiske tekster – juli 2011 • Polen – formandskab - 2/2011 • Danmark – formandskab - 1/2012 • Cypern – formandskab - 2/2012 • Irland – formandskab - 1/2013 • Litauen – formandskab - 2/2013

  20. Tidsplan (2) Budget review • Kommissionens meddelelse 19. oktober 2010 • Forslag – sommer 2011 • Periode 2 x 5? • EP • UK – budgetrabat • FR – CAP’en • Beslutning?

  21. For further information • The CAP after 2013 http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-post-2013/index_en.htm • The Communication on the future of the CAP http://ec.europa.eu/ • Impact Assessment of the Communication http://ec.europa.eu/ • Agricultural Policy Analysis and Perspectives http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/perspec/index_en.htm

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