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The Mexican Economy: Stability or Stagnation?

San Antonio Business and Economics Society. The Mexican Economy: Stability or Stagnation?. Jorge G. Gonzalez Trinity University. Recent Economic and Political Events. Economic recovery in the U.S. Mexican elections and government gridlock Mexico – U.S. relationship. Vital Signs.

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The Mexican Economy: Stability or Stagnation?

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  1. San Antonio Business and Economics Society The Mexican Economy: Stability or Stagnation? Jorge G. Gonzalez Trinity University

  2. Recent Economic and Political Events • Economic recovery in the U.S. • Mexican elections and government gridlock • Mexico – U.S. relationship

  3. Vital Signs • Is the link alive?

  4. Industrial Production Index(January 2000 = 100) Source: Banco de México and FED www.banxico.org.mx; www.federalreserve.gov

  5. Vital Signs • Is the link alive? • GDP growth

  6. Real GDP% Change Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  7. Vital Signs • Is the link alive? • GDP growth • Direct Foreign Investment

  8. Foreign Direct InvestmentBillions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  9. Vital Signs • Is the link alive? • GDP growth • Direct Foreign Investment • Super Peso and Foreign Sector

  10. Exchange RatePesos per U.S. Dollar Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  11. Inflation Differential vs. Exchange Rate 311 Inflation 226 Exchange Rate Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  12. Merchandise TradeBillions of Dollars Imports Exports Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  13. Family RemittancesBillions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  14. Family RemittancesBillions of Dollars Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  15. Vital Signs • Is the link alive? • GDP growth • Direct Foreign Investment • Super Peso and Foreign Sector • Federal Government Balance

  16. Government BalanceBalance / GDP Source: SHCP www.shcp.gob.mx

  17. Vital Signs • Is the link alive? • GDP growth • Direct Foreign Investment • Super Peso and Foreign Sector • Federal Government Balance • War on Inflation

  18. Inflation Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx

  19. Vital Signs Diagnosis: Stability • Is the link alive? • GDP growth • Direct Foreign Investment • Super Peso and Foreign Sector • Federal Government Balance • War on Inflation

  20. Stagnation? • Structural reform paralysis • Fiscal System • Energy Sector • Labor Market Regulations • Judicial System and Rule of Law • Educational Reform X

  21. Stagnation? • Structural reform paralysis • Corruption scandals • Anemic growth • Lack of excitement

  22. Stability or Stagnation? Source: crawfordfineart.com

  23. Stability or Stagnation? • Incredible transformation with stability • Much work to be done • Speed matters

  24. Source: www.mx.terra.com

  25. San Antonio Business and Economics Society The Mexican Economy: Stability or Stagnation? www.trinity.edu/jgonzal1 jorge.gonzalez@trinity.edu

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