Consequences of Innovations

1. Consequences of Innovations Diffusion of Innovations Everett M. ROGERS Roberta Campos May 2008

2. Innovation-Development Process Needs / Problems Development Diffusion and Adoption Research (Basic and Applied) Commercialization Consequences

3. Innovation-Development Process Needs / Problems Development Diffusion and Adoption Research (Basic and Applied) Commercialization Consequences

4. Consequences of Innovations Definition: Changes to an individual or a community (social system) as a result of the adoption (or rejection) of an innovation.

5. Before the technology (1962): 4,000 farmers 50,000 farmworkers, mostly Mexican men immigrants Soft tomatoes (bruises easily in mechanical harvesting) After the technology (1971) 600 farmers 1,152 machines and 18,000 workers (80% women / a few Mexican) Hard tomatoes (do not bruise easily) – fewer vitamins Consequences: Tomato-harvesting example

6. Weakenesses of data on consequences • Rare and « soft » • Mainly case studies • Difficult to generalize or predict future consequences for current innovations • Change agents: pro-innovation bias • Bias prevent agents to recognize their responsability on consequences

7. The snowmobile revolution in the artic (p. 406 – 408) • Designed for winter recreation in the 50’s • Skolt Lapps, of Northern Finland: a reindeer-herding people • Innovation adoption investigated through ethnography by an anthropologist: Pertti Pelto. • Snowmobile: class of innovation that shifts energy resources from local and autonomous (reinder slads) to external and dependent sources (oil).

8. The snowmobile revolution in the artic (p. 406 – 408) • Reindeer role: • Meat: main food • Reinder sleds: main means of transportation • Reinder hides: clothing and shoes • Surplus meat: traded for cash (flour, sugar, tea, etc) • Reindeers-herding activity: prestige for the herder • « First tooth reindeer » and « name-day reindeer  »: for kids • Wedding gift: small herd of animals

9. The snowmobile revolution in the artic (p. 406 – 408) • Lapp society: egalitarian system • Each family had an equal number of reindeers. • 1961: Ski-Doo displayed on the capital • Schoolteacher bought for recreational activities • Lapps begin using it for reindeer herding • Rapid rate of adoption • 1971: almost all households had at least one snowmobile.

10. Faster travel: from 3 days to 5 hours • Noise and smell • Oil dependent • Bad performance on rocky land ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES The snowmobile revolution in the artic (p. 406 – 408)

11. Snowmobile consequences • Fewer calves • Herd per HH dropped from 52 to 12 in ten years • 2/3 HH stopped reindeers raising • One family early adopter: become a large herder (1/3 of all the reindeers) • Meat was need more than ever to buy snowmobiles, gasoline and spare parts. • « Cash dependecy, debts and unemployement » (p. 408)

12. Snowmobile consequences • Why Lapps did not resist the innovation? • For Pelto, the Lapps were not « technically able to anticipate the far-reaching consequences of the snowmobile » (p. 408) • The culture of Skolt Lapps was clearly affected and disrupted. • Motocycles • Helicopters

13. The study of consequences Na decisão pela adoção estão os elementos do entendimento das consequências Individual characteristics and behavior innovativeness consequences Dependent variable Independent variable / Predictor

14. Socioeconomic characteristics Personality Communication behavior • Functional, direct or manifest consequences(increased production, higher income, more leiseure, etc) • Dysfunctional, indirect or latent consequences • (Greater expense, need for more capital, social inequality) Antecedents of innovativeness (Independent variable) Consequences of innovation (New dependent variable) A model for studying the consequences of innovation (p.410) • Relative earliness in adopting new ideas Indicators of innovativeness (prior dependent variable)

15. Why consequences are less studied? • Change agents: pro-innovation assumptions (needs fullfilled) • Usual survey methods are less suitable for consequence assessments • Consequences unfold over an extended period of time • Consequences are difficult to measure: individuals are not always fully aware of consequences (individual and system consequences) • Cultural relativism: researcher needs an inside view of the culture to generate judgement and measure (Ex: Pierre Clastres) • Difficult to isolate result of innovation from other effects and context • Original introduction objectives may be concealed by subsequent rationalization by system members.

16. Consequences taxonomy • Desirable X Undesirable • Direct X Indirect • Anticipated X Unanticipated

17. Consequences taxonomy • Desirable X Undesirable: effect on adopters • Example of undesirable consequences: social system qualities that guarantee the welfare of the system => reindeers-hendering • Family bonds, Respect for life and property, Respect for ancestors • Consequences can be desired for the system and undesired for certain individuals: tomato harvester • Windfall profits: positive consequences for early adopters (higher risks)

18. Consequences taxonomy • Desirable X Undesirable: effect on adopters • Generalization 1: « The effects of an innovation usually cannot be managed to separate the desirable from the undesirable consequences » (p. 414) • Principle of inseparability: Amish

19. Consequences taxonomy • Direct X Indirect • One change generates a chain reaction • Direct consequences: come from innovation • Indirect come from consequences

20. Example: wet rice growing in Madagascar

21. Consequences taxonomy • Anticipated X Unantecipated • Anticipated: innovation changes recognized and intended by the members • Snowmobile’s rapid transportation • Unanticipated: unknown or unintended changes • Breast liquid silicone implants • « A system is like a bowl of marbles: move any one of its elements and the positions of all the others are inevitably changed also » (p. 419)

22. Consequences taxonomy • Generalization 2: « The undesirable, indirect and unanticipated consequences of an innovationusually go together, as do the desirable, direct and anticipated consequences» (p. 421)

23. Steel axes for Stone-Age Aborigines • Stone ax: central tool in their culture • Symbol of masculinity and respect for elders • Axes borrowed from fathers, uncles, older men in the family. • Missionairs distributed steel axes as gifts or payments • Expected consequences: improvement of living conditions • Unexpected consequences: disruption of status relations and a confusion of ages and sex roles. • Prostitution in exchange on steel axes

24. Consequences characteristics • Form: directly observable substance of innovation • Function: contribution generated to the way of life of adopters • Meaning: subjective perception of an innovation by individuals (Cultural dimension)

25. Consequences characteristics • Generalization 3: « Change agents more easily anticipate the form and function of an innovation for their clients than its meaning » (p. 423)

26. Ideal rate of change? • Stable equilibrium: when there is almost no change • Dynamic equilibrium: rate of change is commensurate with the system’s ability to deal with it • Disequilibrium: too rapid change of rate for the system to adjust

27. To whom introduce innovations? • Innovators and early adopters: open and ressourceful to adopt innovations • Opinion leaders among innovators: trickle across rather than trickle-down • Individual with different social status in the society

28. The communication effect gap • Has the communication had a different effect on certain individuals than others? • Measure: • Average amount of behavior change in the audience • Gap increase or decrease in socioeconomic status and knowledge • Objective: to look within an audience to determine whether certain segments were more affected than others

29. The communication effect gap • Generalization 4: « The consequences of the diffusion of innovation usually widen the socioeconomic gap between the earlier and later adopting categories in a system » (p. 433) • Generalization 5: « The consequences of the diffusion usually widen the socioeconomic gap between the audience segments previously high and low in social status » (p. 433)

30. Social structure and equality • How an innovation is introduced determines in part the degree to which it causes unequal consequences. • Bangladesh: irrigation purchase by large farmers • Pakistan: irrigation purchase by village cooperatives • Adoption determined by system structure (S curve socially determined)

31. Social structure and equality • Generalization 6: « A system’s social structure partly determines the equality versus inequality of an innovation’s consequences» (p. 436)

32. Narrowing gaps • The ups have greater access to information: • provide messages that are less interesting to higher economic audience • Message segmentation • Shift agents action from early adopters to late majority • Identify opinion leaders among the disadvantaged segments • Select agents from the downs for a homophilous exchange

33. Narrowing gaps • The ups possess greater resources: • Develop apropriate innovation for the downs • Create a social organization to cope with the absence of individual resources • Establish special diffusion agencies to work only with downs • Depend more on indigenous knowledge system

34. Narrowing gaps • Generalization 7: « When special efforts are made by a diffusion agency, it is possible to narrow, or at least to maintain the size of socioeconomic gaps in a social system» (p. 439)

35. Thank you!