New Forecast Technologies for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation

1. 1 New Forecast Technologies for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation C：Asia Air Survey co., ltd Takayuki MATSUMURA (Forecast Department, JMA) JMA

2. 2 Development of a Numerical Weather Prediction system Accurate prediction of timing and location of severe weather events Accurate prediction of typhoon tracks Based on physical lows Beyond several hours Development of a Nowcast system Accurate prediction of timing and location of precipitation Based on a heuristic method Up to a few hours Missions of JMA To protect life and property from natural disasters such as floods, landslides, debris flows, storms, etc.

3. What is Numerical Weather Prediction ? 3 Schematic illustration of Numerical Model Super-computer Observation Initial Condition Numerical ModelPhysical laws Prediction Precipitation, Temperature, Winds ....

4. Current Operational Numerical Models 4 • Typhoon model • Horizontal • Resolution: 24 km • Updates: 4 times a day • Global model • Horizontal • Resolution: 60 km • Updates: 2 times a day • Mesoscale model • Horizontal • Resolution: 10 km • Updates: 4 times a day • Regional model • Horizontal • Resolution: 20 km • Updates: 2 times a day

5. 5 Requirements for Numerical Weather Prediction Initial Condition Numerical Model Use of various observational data Satellites, Wind profiler, Aircraft, Doppler radar, .... Development of models Advanced mesoscale model fully-compressible non-hydrostatic equation, cloud microphysics Development of data assimilation Advanced assimilation method Improved Performance

6. 6 Mesoscale Model Forecast of Heavy Rainfall Impact of the New Model Observation New Model Old Model Rain Rate (mm hr-1) The new model shows better performance as compared to the old model. Rain Rate at the surface resulting from Baiu front at 15 JST, 19 July 2003.

7. 7 Observation Data Used in the Analysis A high-resolution model requires dense observations with sufficient accuracy.

8. 8 domestic wind profiler data a new assimilation method automated aircraft data new satellite data new satellite data a new model Forecast Skill Performance of the Mesoscale Model Precipitation Forecast for Rain-rate at 10 mm / 3 hr Accuracy of precipitation forecasts is represented by an objective index indicating the minimum (0) to the maximum (1).

9. Impact of Horizontal Resolution of the Model 9 As the horizontal resolution increases, the rain band is well represented. Observed Rain Rate 10-km 1.5-km Three-hourly accumulated rainfall for 09 – 12 JST. Maximum rainfall amounts attained over 60 mm/hour .

10. 10 Typhoon Positional Error of Typhoon Model Forecasts FT = 72 hours FT = 48 hours FT = 24 hours Forecast errors of typhoon center positions are reduced, especially for longer forecast hours, resulting from model developments.

11. Nowcasting of Precipitation 11 Very Short Range Forecast Nowcast nowcast represents localized high rain rates 10-minutes rainfall res.=1km, issued every 10min up to 1 hour 1-hour rainfall res.=5km, issued every 30 min up to 6 hours • Disaster prevention and mitigation • Urban flood caused by a rapidly developing rain cloud

12. 12 Future Plan • Development of a high-resolution model Horizontal resolution: 2 ~ 5 km • Further improvement of Typhoon forecast with new technologies • Multi-scale analysis of echo motion for nowcasting Improve the forecasts of severe meteorological phenomena that threaten life and property.

13. 13 Summary A role of JMA is to provide accurate forecasts for prevention and mitigation of natural disasters. Enhancement of the numerical weather prediction system and nowcast system is an important task. • Development of an advanced mesoscale model • Use of various observational data • Development of an advanced data assimilation method • Improvements in the typhoon track forecasts • Development of Very-Short-Range Precipitation forecasts including Nowcasting

14. ありがとうございました。 14 謝謝 Thank you. Merci. Спасибо Gracias.