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Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008

Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008. Lose-Lose Risks and Win-Win Options. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre. Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming. 6.0. 5.0. 4.0.

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Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008

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  1. Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008 Lose-Lose Risks and Win-Win Options Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre

  2. Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming 6.0 5.0 4.0 Globally averaged warming (ºC) 3.0 2.0 1.0 A1FI A1B A1T A2 B2 B1 0.0 -1.0 1900 2000 2100

  3. Cooling Effect of Aerosols (Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)

  4. Dangerous Warming Commitment (Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)

  5. G8-Scenario and R&F‘s Invisible Hand (Schellnhuber 2008 PNAS)

  6. Integrated Assessment Consider 3 crucial aspects of sustainable climate protection measures: • Mitigation • Adaptation • Development

  7. Action Field Check Identify • Ecological Assets • Economic Sectors • Social Systems highly sensitive to subset / totality of aspects Prioritize accordingly!

  8. Lose Development Lose Stagnate Stagnate Adaptation Win Win Win Stagnate Lose Mitigation Invest in Win-Win-Win Options Disencourage Lose-Lose-Lose Risks

  9. LLL Examples • Urbanization of coastal zones, mountain ranges, arid regions • „Stradification“ of natural habitats • Expansion of single-purpose fossil-fuel-based power stations WWW Examples • Reduction of black carbon emissions through biomethane generated from degraded-land afforestation • Solarthermal power generation + desalinization by energy towers • Sustainable architecture

  10. Vulnerable Coastal Megacity: Mumbai

  11. The Phoenix Metropolitan Area

  12. Nouakchott, Mauritania

  13. www.faszination-regenwald.de u. a.

  14. 17 % of current global primary energy demand 81 EJ/yr 557 Mha (not irrigated) Fractional Plantation Area (2nd Generation Bioenergy) Bioenergy Potential (no irrigation) • Biodiv/Wilderness moderatelyprotected • Cropland not expanded Erbrecht and Lucht, unpub.

  15. Energy Tower Principle

  16. Climate-fit urban design invented 2000 years ago

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