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NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance

NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 26-30, 2007. Victoria Cox US Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Operations, Vice President of Operations Planning.

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NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance

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  1. NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 26-30, 2007 Victoria Cox US Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Operations, Vice President of Operations Planning

  2. It’s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods • Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.5% of U.S. GDP • If expanded to include related industries, • it’s 9% of U.S. GDP • Contributes 10 million jobs to our economy

  3. 2025 NextGen Concept For full version, see: www.jpdo.aero Key Capabilities • Net-Enabled Information Access • Performance-Based Services • Weather-Assimilated Decision Making • Layered, Adaptive Security • Broad-Area Precision Navigation • Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations • “Equivalent Visual” Operations • “Super Density” Operations

  4. Cost of Not Moving to NextGen Unconstrained Commercial Demand (TAF Growth) OEP H&S Capacity Estimate No Change Capacity Demand 175,000 155,000 135,000 $100 Billion Annual Economic Loss Uncons Comm Flights Per Day 115,000 $40 Billion Annual Economic Loss 95,000 OEP H&S 75,000 No Change 55,000 2004 2014 2024 2034 Demand by Year

  5. Boeing Forecast 3X 2.4X • Significant Alternate Shift • Increase passengers per flight • A380, reverse RJ trend • Continue existing Biz shift • Smaller aircraft, more airports • Biz shift • 2% shift to micro jets 2014 2025 20?? Future Demand on the NAS Flights 1.4-3X ~3X Not to scale TAF Growth Ratios, Higher Rate TAF yields passenger growth of 1.8-2.4X in 2025 ~2X Enplanement Demand TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Growth Projection 1X 2004

  6. “Super Density” Airport Operations 2X – 4X Capacity Increase Distributed Airport Operations* Maximize use of Available Airspace And more… And more… 1.2X – 1.4X Capacity Increase Nearly match Good Wx Capacity “Equivalent Visual” Operations Weather Information in Decision Loops Performance-Based Services Aircraft Trajectory-Based Ops Broad Area Precision Navigation Net-Enabled Information Access 2025 NextGen Capabilities:Capacity Impacts Airport Capacity Airspace Capacity NextGen Capabilities Current Current Current Current *For Distributed Airport Operations, benefits are modeled by shifting traffic (Bizshift) to selected regional airports surrounding the 35 OEP airports Bad Wx Good Wx Good Wx Bad Wx

  7. NextGen Performance: Dual Focus • Air Traffic Management • Improved Performance-based services • Area Navigation (RNAV) • Required Navigation Performance (RNP) • Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) • Improved Information Availability (SWIM) • Improved weather prediction availability and coordinated weather picture

  8. NextGen Performance: Dual Focus • Aircraft and Operator Performance • Improved aircraft performance • Navigation and aircraft flight performance • Improved noise and emissions performance • Provide better decision quality data to pilots and air traffic controllers to enable higher-density operations with high level of safety

  9. Agency Develops Near-Term Performance Goals Agency Executes Investments Monitors Performance JPDO Manages Outcomes against Plan National Plan Sets NextGen Objectives JPDO Develops NextGen Performance Assessment of Concepts – Sets Targets Monitoring Performance against NextGen Targets Enterprise Architecture: Performance Reference Model Flight Plan OEP Enterprise Architecture Adjust Plan Portfolio Management

  10. ATO Dashboard Demonstrated Metrics Experience

  11. Operational Evolution Partnership Metrics Measuring today ensures a successful tomorrow NAS Today

  12. Key Near-Term Investments Current Programs OEP Solution Sets Initiate Trajectory Based Operations Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment Improve Collaborative ATM Reduce Weather Impact Increase Safety, Security, and Environmental Performance Transform Facilities • ERAM Enhancements • Automated Problem Resolution • Concept DemonstrationsTrajectory Based Ops/High Density • Infrastructure –Trajectory Based Ops • Time Based Metering • TFM-M Enhancements • Time-Based Metering ERAM STARS/CARTS ADS-B TMA TFM-M SWIM DATA Comm Precision Navigation Network Enabled Weather • RNP/RNAV Expansion • Precise Navigation • Data Communications • Flight Intent Downlink • ADS-B • Aircraft Separation • SWIM/Net-Enabled Weather • Net-Centric Information Sharing Enabling Infrastructure to Support NextGen Capabilities

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