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International Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program: Is Israel Prepared? August 2007

International Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program: Is Israel Prepared? August 2007. Background: US-Israel ‘Special Relations’. Shared Values. Common Interests. US Domestic Support for Israel. US Reassessment of Middle East Interests. Offensive on US Pro-Israel Lobby. 2.

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International Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program: Is Israel Prepared? August 2007

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  1. International Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program: Is Israel Prepared? August 2007

  2. Background:US-Israel ‘Special Relations’ Shared Values Common Interests US Domestic Support for Israel US Reassessment of Middle East Interests Offensive on US Pro-Israel Lobby 2

  3. Mindset:US-Israel Coordination on Iran Resolution during Bush term;Freedom to act if not 2 US-IL coordination on Iran 1 Stopping Iran: a) International pressure b) US military strike preferred c) Viable Israeli military option 3 3

  4. Reality:Iraq Redeployment is Organizing US Logic Bush admin: Regional diplomacy Military action  2 Pressure to withdraw 1 US ‘overstretch’ Iranian leverages in Iraq Direct US-Iran discussions EU / IAEA willingness to lead negotiations with Iran 3 4

  5. Issues for negotiation: 3 US Iran Entering talks Iran’s nuclear project US-Israel coordinated on Iran Iraq re-deployment is organizing US logic US in Iraq EU / IAEA Changing Reality Mindset Potential Israeli Strategic Surprise: Israel Left Out in Scenario of Int’l Deal 5

  6. Preserving Israel’s Interests in Deal Scenario “Good Deal”: Contains Iranian Hegemony “Bad Deal”: Enables Iranian Hegemony • Enables nuclear weapon; prolonged ‘negotiation umbrella’ • Stop nuclear military threat • Contain Resistance Network • Fails to limit Resistance Network • Maintain US presence / status in region • Iranian regional hegemony; Iraq resolved unfavorably • Enables regional political process • Prevent need for high-risk military confrontation • Iran ‘veto power’ on reg’l process 6

  7. Reut Campaign for Israeli Decision-Makers:Relevancy in All Iran Resolution Scenarios Call GOI attention: 2 1 Blind Spot Identification Knowledge Development Briefings with GOI officials Reut paper: ‘Libyan Scenario’ Barak Ravid, Ha’aretz Exit when GOI enters 3 7

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