1 / 43

General Body Meeting 03.10.11

General Body Meeting 03.10.11. Agenda. News Updates Macro Sector Pitch. News Updates. Japanese Earthquake. Friday, March 11: Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake Up to 30 feet tsunamis Official Count: 15,000 Dead/Missing More feared Support Pouring In. Market Impact. US Market Impact. JPY Impact.

lora
Télécharger la présentation

General Body Meeting 03.10.11

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. General Body Meeting 03.10.11

  2. Agenda • News Updates • Macro Sector Pitch

  3. News Updates

  4. Japanese Earthquake • Friday, March 11: Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake • Up to 30 feet tsunamis • Official Count: 15,000 Dead/Missing • More feared • Support Pouring In

  5. Market Impact

  6. US Market Impact

  7. JPY Impact

  8. Moving Forward? • Artificially Stimulating Economy • Impact on Japanese Debt • Impact on Various Companies • Impact on Nuclear Industry

  9. Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) • FDA approved first medication for the treatment of lupus in last 55 years • Lupus is an inflammatory disease where antibodies in the immune system attack joints, skin, kidneys, lungs, the heart, and even the brain • Drug called BENLYSTA • BENLYSTA (injected) blocks antibodies from attacking organs

  10. HP Updates • CEO Apotheker laid out his strategic vision for HP on March 14th during his first appearance before the technology press ,focusing on: • Cloud-computing • Seamless connectivity among devices • HP application store • WebOS: • HP will deliver 100M WebOS-enabled devices per year (tablets, phones, printers, PCs…), i.e. an integrated ecosystem

  11. HP Updates Continued… • WebOS: • HP WebOS tablet will ship in June • Promote WebOS development aggressively • Acquisitions: • Vertica acquisition set to close soon, a good sign • Possible future acquisitions of other software companies • HP to boost quarterly dividend by 50%, from 8 to 12 cents

  12. HP Updates Continued… • Analysts’ Opinions: • “The consensus was that what investors really wanted to hear today was direction for HP and confidence in a plan. We got both today.” • “Apotheker’s changes should yield $7/share earnings by 2014, up from $4.58 in 2010” • “HP, which recently set a long-term goal of $7 per share in EPS, should easily hit $6 per share next year” –Credit-Suisse Analyst, with an Outperform rating on HP

  13. HP Summary • Analyst day was success in presenting HP’s future strategy. • Short-term price performance hit by macro-conditions, but bullish in long-run • Analysts believe that HP will outperform. “HP has “lots of room for growth in IT services, which are currently under-consumed around the world” • Recommendation: HOLD

  14. Media SectorThe Walt Disney Company

  15. Thesis • Growth across segments • Diversified, stable company • Global push

  16. Company Overview • Diversified worldwide entertainment company • 5 business segments • Media Networks • Parks & Resorts • Studio Entertainment • Consumer Products • Interactive Media

  17. Company Overview

  18. Company Overview

  19. Media Networks

  20. Parks & Resorts

  21. Studio Entertainment

  22. Studio Entertainment

  23. Consumer Products

  24. Interactive Media

  25. Management • Robert Iger – President & CEO • Joined in 1974 • James Rasulo • Joined in 1986 • Chase Manhattan • Marriott • Kevin Mayer • Partner, L.E.K. Consulting • CEO, Clear Channel Interactive • CEO, Playboy.com

  26. Industry Overview • Diversified Entertainment • Macro Drivers: • GDP • Disposable Personal Income • Consumer Expenditures • Consumer Price Index • Consumer Confidence • Slow albeit positive growth with company specific catalysts driving performance

  27. Catalysts – Media Networks • ESPN – BIG Winner • Ratings up 40% yoy • Ad Revenue up 34% yoy • More growth on the way with cross-platform consumption • Demand for live content • ESPN 3D • Barcap: “ESPN has least revenue risk in the event of a lockout.”

  28. Catalysts – Parks & Resorts • Shanghai Disneyland Resort opening 2014/5 • 2.7 sq. mile tourist destination • $3.7 billion projected cost • Expected yearly visitors at opening: 7-10 million • Possible operations by Oriental Land Co. • Operates Tokyo Disney – very popular • All lessons learned from HK & Tokyo will be applied in Shanghai • GS very bullish on park – comparable to Macau’s transformation of gambling industry • Yuan appreciation positive for profit repatriation

  29. Catalysts – Parks & Resorts • Heavy marketing efforts prior to opening • 5000 Retailers • Disney Stores opening in 2012 • Upscale shopping centers • Aiming to deliver the best 30 minutes of a child’s day • Whet consumer appetite

  30. Catalysts – Parks & Resorts • Expansion on the High Seas • 2 new cruise ships will enter Disney fleet by 2012 • 4000 passenger capacity/ship • 150% cruise capacity increase • Est. $250 million increase in annual profit • Cruise industry expected to have strong years ahead

  31. Catalysts – Studio Entertainment • Disney’s purchase of Marvel unlocks many popular franchises to complement its current portfolio • Iron Man franchise • Incredible Hulk • Thor • Immense cross-selling opportunities • Will lead to growth in other business segments

  32. SWOT • Market Leader • High brand equity worldwide • Diversified yet integrated businesses • Cross-selling opportunity

  33. SWOT • Overweight in U.S. market • Limited growth as consumers are wary to spend on entertainment • Studio Entertainment, while most profitable has not seen growth and is expected to decline as % of overall business

  34. SWOT • Global push – Disney in Shanghai will drive much growth in the franchise • Planning “Fantasyland” within Magic Kingdom, attracting more visitors and revenues • Innovation in ESPN content delivery shows promising growth

  35. SWOT • NFL lockout could hurt Disney’s revenues • Partial hedge written into contract • Regulation may prevent cross-selling abroad (i.e Disney movies cannot be played in theatre without permission by Chinese film board) • Fierce competition amongst theme parks: Paramount Parks, Universal Studios, and Six flags are all major competitors with cheaper prices

  36. Financial Overview • Current Share Price: • Market Capitalization: 77.14 B • Trailing P/E: 17.92 • In line with industry: 17.33 • Forward P/E: 13.74 • ROA: 6.46% • ROE: 12.36% • D/E: .26 • Current Ratio: 1.1

  37. Financial Overview - Risk

  38. Financial Overview

  39. Financial Overview - Valuation • DCF • Hybrid Sum of the Parts • Growth Rates • Higher growth in more profitable businesses • Perpetuity growth: 3.5-5% • Implied Price Per Share: $ 41.78 – 55.28

  40. Technical Analysis

  41. Recommendation • Buy 50 shares at ~ $ 2030 • Bull Call Spread • Buy 45 call expiry Jan ‘12 • Sell 50 call expiry Jan ‘12 • Time Horizon 2-4 Years

  42. Questions?

  43. Thanks for coming by! HAPPY ST. PATRICK’S DAY! HAVE A GREAT SPRING BREAK

More Related