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Carbon accounting: Introduction

Carbon accounting: Introduction. Topic 4, Section A. USAID-CIFOR-ICRAF Project Assessing the Implications of Climate Change for USAID Forestry Programs (2009). Learning Outcomes.

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Carbon accounting: Introduction

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  1. Carbon accounting: Introduction Topic 4, Section A USAID-CIFOR-ICRAF Project Assessing the Implications of Climate Change for USAID Forestry Programs (2009)

  2. Learning Outcomes In this presentation you will learn about the basic concepts of carbon accounting and the different methods used in it. Topic 4, Section A, slide 2 of 39

  3. Outline • General concepts • Elements of carbon accounting • Different approaches • Cost-accuracy tradeoffs • International Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance Topic 4, Section A, slide 3 of 39

  4. Age Gross Primary Production(GPP) Primary production of a forest Respiration (R) NPP GPP / R Net Primary Production (NPP = GPP - R) Topic 4, Section A, slide 4 of 39

  5. Age Carbon pool and carbon flux in a forest Carbon pool Mg C ha-1 Mg C ha-1year-1 Carbon flux (sequestration) Topic 4, Section A, slide 5 of 39

  6. Carbon accounting • Carbon accounting is the measuring, reporting and verifying process that can determine the amount CO2 that is sequestered, or the amount of carbon that is released, into the atmosphere by various activities • It also supports emissions trading and provides a basis for emission projections to assess progress towards meeting international targets Topic 4, Section A, slide 6 of 39

  7. Basic terminology Carbonemission Carbonsequestration Carbon pool Carbon pool Carbon flux Atmosphere Forest Atmosphere Forest Topic 4, Section A, slide 7 of 39

  8. Elements of an accounting system Carbon accounting systems must monitor changes in these two main variables • Area of forest and changes in the area due to deforestation or afforestation • Carbon stock density and changes in itdue to forest management, degradation Remote sensing technologies combined with ground measurements play a key role in measuring and monitoring Topic 4, Section A, slide 8 of 39

  9. What is a forest 0 10 Canopy Cover 30 100 Source: FAO 2007 This landscape seen from above shows the tree crowns as green dots. Topic 4, Section A, slide 9 of 39

  10. FAO’s definition of a forest • Minimum land area is 0.5 hectares • Minimum canopy cover is 10% • Minimum tree height is 5 metres Topic 4, Section A, slide 10 of 39

  11. The CDM’s definition of a forest 0 10 Canopy Cover 30 100 • A host country must define a forest within the following guidelines: • Minimum land area is between 0.05 and 1.0 hectare • Minimum tree-crown cover is between 10 and 30% • Minimum tree height is between 2 and 5 metres • Once the values are chosen they must remain fixed Topic 4, Section A, slide 11 of 39

  12. IPCC definitions Topic 4, Section A, slide 12 of 39

  13. Afforestation and reforestation in CDM 1990 Afforestation Reforestation 50 years Topic 4, Section A, slide 13 of 39

  14. Deforestation and degradation Land use change? Yes Deforestation No Loss of C? Yes Degradation Topic 4, Section A, slide 14 of 39

  15. Carbon pools (IPCC GPG) • The IPCC GPG (2003) - five carbon pools: aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, litter, dead wood, and soil organic carbon Above-ground biomass Trees Other above-ground biomass Dead wood Litter Below-ground biomass Soil carbon Topic 4, Section A, slide 15 of 39

  16. Carbon pools (IPCC GPG) Source: IPCC GPG 2003 Topic 4, Section A, slide 16 of 39

  17. Levels of carbon accounting • National-level carbon accounting • Annex I Parties of the Kyoto Protocol • Under discussion for REDD in the post-2012 climate agreement • Project-level carbon accounting • CDM afforestation/reforestation projects • Project in voluntary carbon markets • Nested approach • Combination of national and sub-national (e.g. state, province, project) level carbon accounting • Proposal for an optional approach in REDD Topic 4, Section A, slide 17 of 39

  18. Monitoring forest areas andforest-area changes Two main approaches: • Wall-to-wall mapping • Sampling Example of systematic sampling Example of annual wall-to-wall mapping (PRODES) in Amazonia Example of stratified sampling Source: COFC-GOLD 2008 Topic 4, Section A, slide 18 of 39

  19. How does remote sensing work? • Measure tree height and crown diameter from remote sensing imagery (Ikonos or higher resolution) • Construct allometric models between tree biomass and crown diameter for calculations Topic 4, Section A, slide 19 of 39

  20. Monitoring carbon pools Example of fate of carbon pools in an agroforestry plantation Example of fate of carbon pools following deforestation Sources: Masera et al. 2003; GOFC-GOLD 2008 Topic 4, Section A, slide 20 of 39

  21. Detecting the difference • Two means (time 1 and time 2) • RME = Reliable Minimum Estimate • When number of observations (plots) increases -> variability of the data (standard deviation) decreases RME 1 is smaller than RME 2 Standard deviation explained A data set with a mean of 50 (shown in blue) and a standard deviation (σ) of 20. Source: IPCC GPG 2003 Topic 4, Section A, slide 21 of 39

  22. Relationship between precision level and number of plots • The higher the precision level needed, larger the number of field measurement plots required Source: IPCC GPG 2003 Topic 4, Section A, slide 22 of 39

  23. Cost of precision for monitoring (Noel Kempff project, Bolivia) Total project area: 640 000 ha Topic 4, Section A, slide 23 of 39

  24. Two methods for carbon accounting • Baseline methodology (reference levels) • Project boundary (if project-level accounting) • Additionality • Baseline net greenhouse gas removals by sinks • Leakage, risks, uncertainties • Monitoring methodology • Cost-effective measuring and monitoring protocols • Quality assurance and control • Actual net greenhouse gas removals by sinks Topic 4, Section A, slide 24 of 39

  25. Issues to be taken into account If the emission reductions have to be: The issues that have to be taken into account are: • Real • Verifiable • Long-term • Additional • Certified • Risks, uncertainties, leakage • Measuring and monitoring plan • Non-permanence • Baseline/reference level • Standards for certification Topic 4, Section A, slide 25 of 39

  26. IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use,Land-Use Change and Forestry (2003) • Supplementary methods and good practice guidance • Estimating, measuring, monitoring and reporting on carbon stock changes and greenhouse gas emissions from LULUCF activities • Articles 3, 6 and 12 of the Kyoto Protocol Topic 4, Section A, slide 26 of 39

  27. Additionality • Environmental (climate) • Benefits in terms of GHG emission reductions • = Project – baseline > 0 • Policies and programmes • Why we need CDM or REDD to make this happen? • Existing plans, programmes and policies • Investment/financial • Not from “traditional” development assistance (CDM) Topic 4, Section A, slide 27 of 39

  28. Additionality of emission reductions Emissions Project Projected emissions (project case) Base line Time Topic 4, Section A, slide 28 of 39

  29. Additionality Scenario 1 Additionality Scenario 2 Pasture Additionality in a reforestation project in an abandoned pasture 2002 2012 Reforestation(CDM project) Abandonedpasture(Baseline 2) Pasture continues (Baseline 1) Topic 4, Section A, slide 29 of 39

  30. Baseline • What would happen without the project? • The scenario of anthropogenic emissions by sources or anthropogenic removals by sinks of greenhouse gases that would occur without the proposed project • The sum of the changes in carbon stocks in the carbon pools within the project boundary that would have occurred without the CDM or REDD project Topic 4, Section A, slide 30 of 39

  31. Baseline for REDD credits Topic 4, Section A, slide 31 of 39

  32. Total carbon stock (past and projected) in300 000 ha forest area of Chiapas, Mexico Low (0.4% / year) 37.4 14 High (2.3% / year) 70 Scenarios using low, mean and high rates of deforestation as a percentage of the deforested area 63.6 1990 1984 Carbon pool (regatones carbon) Mean (1.6% / year) 20 Actual Projected 1974 1996 2045 Year Data: Landsat MSS (Source: Brown et al., 2007) Topic 4, Section A, slide 32 of 39

  33. Mapping past land-use change Non-forest Forest Example: Purépecha, Michoacán, Mexico Time 1 1993 Time 2 2000 Topic 4, Section A, slide 33 of 39

  34. Pine Pine-oak Agriculture No Spruce Land-use change matrix Scrub land Fruit crops Plantedforest Dry forest Pasture Lakes Agriculture Urban Total Oak forest forest irrigated vegetation forest forest Oak 5,470 3 86 2,014 1,697 0 259 153 0 0 2,286 6 16 0 11,988 forest Pasture 1 9,198 829 65 37 2 4,512 81 341 0 4,618 6 0 1 19,691 Scrub land 137 241 2,951 148 45 3 877 16 6 29 3,695 56 0 60 8,264 Pine forest 1,104 71 197 58,454 9,905 0 1,580 5,856 0 12 25,419 63 323 0 102,982 Pine-oakforest 1,507 21 44 6,912 62,779 0 1,334 2,429 33 24 12,480 6 174 0 87,745 0 51 10 7 13 11,740 149 1 0 4 73 0 1 0 12,050 Lakes Agriculture 616 6,908 3,577 2,161 3,556 53 115,263 10,133 2,148 41 47,669 1,102 150 189 193,566 Fruit crops 115 80 5 2,261 630 23 402 22,069 28 23 2,176 336 1 0 28,149 Agricultureirrigated 0 995 15 1,018 577 3 1,917 507 12,646 0 3,884 288 4 12 21,866 No veg. 72 1 15 261 621 0 558 535 0 3,481 428 0 5 0 5,978 Dry forest 569 6,103 2,732 14,640 6,366 66 7,647 9,566 1,077 139 90,492 219 5 99 139,722 Urban 0 74 11 43 2 0 117 48 19 0 111 7,405 0 8 7,840 Spruce for. 18 0 2 173 296 0 12 17 0 0 500 0 6,707 0 7,725 Planted for. 0 1 11 8 2 0 37 0 1 1 107 12 0 400 580 Total 9,609 23,748 10,484 88,165 86,527 11,890 134,663 51,413 16,300 3,755 193,940 9,500 7,384 768 648,147 Land use in 2000 Land use in 1993 Figures in 1000 hectares Topic 4, Section A, slide 34 of 39

  35. Simulation of deforestation 2000-2025 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Forest Non-forest Deforestation Purépecha, Michoacán, Mexico Protected areas No data Topic 4, Section A, slide 35 of 39

  36. Risks and uncertainties • Risks: loss of carbon due to unexpected occurrence of • Fires, pest and disease outbreaks • Hurricanes, earthquakes, flooding • Human-induced activities • Uncertainties: • Errors in estimation/measurement of carbon stocks • Errors in the construction of the baseline • How to handle risks and errors? • Discounting during project validation and certification • Better methods for their prediction Topic 4, Section A, slide 36 of 39

  37. Leakage • The increase in greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere • Occurs outside the boundary of project activity under the CDM or REDD • Is measurable and attributable to the project activity • Example • Increased deforestation outside the province X caused by relocation of human settlements due to REDD activity in the province X • Methods for estimation of leakage • Discounting of the credits (in projects) • National level (REDD) accounting eliminates leakage Topic 4, Section A, slide 37 of 39

  38. References • Brown, S. 1997 Estimating biomass and biomass change of tropical forests: a primer. FAO Forestry Paper no. 134. • Brown, S. 2002 Measuring carbon in forests: current status and futurechallenges Environ. Pollut. 116:363-72. • Brown, S. and Gaston, G. 1995 Use of forest inventories and geographic information systems to estimate biomass density of tropical forests: applications to tropical Africa. Environ. Monit. Assess. 38:157-68. • Brown, S., Hall, M., Andrasko, K., Ruiz, F., Marzoli, W., Guerrero, G., Masera, O., Dushku, A., de Jong, B. and Cornell, J. 2007 Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 12:1001-26. • GOFC-GOLD. 2008 Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in Developing Countries: A Sourcebook of Methods and Procedures for Monitoring, Measuring and Reporting. Ch. 6. GOFC-GOLD Report version COP13-2. GOFC-GOLD Project Office, Natural Resources Canada, Alberta, Canada. • Masera, O., Garza-Caligaris, J.F., Kanninen, M., Karjalainen, T., Nabuurs, G., Pussinen, A., de Jong, B.J. and Mohren, G.M.J. 2003 Modelling carbon sequestration in afforestation and forest management projects: the CO2FIX V 2.0 approach. Ecological Modelling 164: 77-199. • Pearson, T., Walker, S. and Brown, S. 2005 Sourcebook for land use, land-use change and forestry projects. Winrock International and the BioCarbon Fund of the World Bank. 57p. • Penman, J. et al. 2003 Good practice guidance for land use, land-use change and forestry. IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Program and Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Kanagawa, Japan. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gpglulucf/gpglulucf.htm Topic 4, Section A, slide 38 of 39

  39. Thank you for your attention

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