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State Climate Change Action Program of Baja California (PEACC-BC)

nn. http://peac-bc.cicese.mx. State Climate Change Action Program of Baja California (PEACC-BC). Tereza Cavazos Depto. de Oceanografía Física, CICESE. Oceans & Weather Impacting Business and Infrastructure The Maritime Alliance, San Diego, CA, 4 March 2011.

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State Climate Change Action Program of Baja California (PEACC-BC)

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  1. nn http://peac-bc.cicese.mx State Climate Change Action Program of Baja California (PEACC-BC) Tereza Cavazos Depto. de Oceanografía Física, CICESE Oceans & Weather Impacting Business and Infrastructure The Maritime Alliance, San Diego, CA, 4 March 2011

  2. Mexico’s Public Policy on Climate Change National Development Program (2007-2012) nn Axis 4: Environmental Sustainability Sectoral Programs National Strategy on Climate Change (2007) Special Program of CC (2009-2012) State Climate Change Action Programs (PEACC) (PND 2007-2012, Fig. VI.1 from SEMARNAT, 2009)

  3. Baja California nn Regional Sustainable Development 6 transversal axes

  4. PEACC-BC General Coordination CICESE COLEF UABC Technical Secretariat External Expert Groups Local Experts Advisory Review Agric/Ranch. Marine Ecos. Health Climatology Fisheries Legislation GHG Invent. Water Urban Dev. Economy Energy Biodiversity Coasts Housing Transport Society

  5. PEACC Objectives (2008-2011) • To update GHG emissions inventory and scenarios • To develop regional climate change scenarios • To diagnose the state of socio-economic and environmental • sectors and to evaluate impacts and vulnerability due to • climate change • Goals • To identify opportunities for mitigation and to propose • strategies on adaptation and mitigationfor public policy

  6. BC AGRICULTURE The products of major commercial value are tomatoes, strawberries, wheat, onions and grapes BC Water 51% of the surface water in BC comes from the Colorado River and 30% of the water consumption is from aquifers. WATER CONSUMPTION IN BC PUBLIC-URBAN 8% INDUSTRY 5% AGRICULTURE 87%

  7. Problematic Aquifers in Mexico (2003) OVEREXPLOITED SALT INTRUSION SALINIZATION OVEREXPLOITED&SAL. OVEREXPL. & SOIL SAL.

  8. Regional Climate Change Scenarios 35o 25o BC -118o -112o

  9. IPCC: Global Scenarios of Climate Change GCMs Resolution (>250 km) IPCC: 23 Global Models (GCMs) Regional Models (< 50 km) Downscaling: Dynamical/ Statistical Regional CC Scenarios

  10. If CO2e increases, global temperature increases IPCC: Global GHG Emissions Scenarios nn 3.0 C T A2 2.0 C B1 2.5 C Atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) 1.5 C 0.0C Year

  11. Regional projections of climate change (selection of best GCMs for the region under B1 and A2 emissions scenarios) 35o 25o BC -118o -112o

  12. The best models for the region IPCC Models 6 Models - 12 Simulations BCCR2 (NOR) - 1 CGCM47 (CAN) - 5 CNRM-C3 (FRA): 1 CSIRO-MK3 (AUS) - 1 MIROC3.2 (JPN) - 3 HADCM3 (UK) - 1 MON 35o 25o BC -118o -112o • Statistically downscaled CMIP3 projections (IPCC, 2007) at 12 km resolution using the bias correction technique from the • Livermore National Lab and Santa Clara University, California. • http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections

  13. Projections of changes in temperature (oC) in Baja California during the 21st Century (relative 1961-1990) T (oC) • Ensemble of 6 IPCC models • (Median ± 1 std) 23.0oC 20.5oC 18.0oC

  14. Grapevine climate/maturity groupings (Apr – Oct) COOL INTERMEDIATE WARM HOT 13 – 15°C 15 – 17°C 17 – 19°C 19 – 24°C Guadalupe Valley, B.C. 19°C CHARDONAY SAUVIGNON BLANC TEMPRANILLO MERLOT SYRAH TABLE GRAPES CABERNET SAUVIGNON GRENACHE ZINFANDEL NEBIOLO (Jones 2006) RAISINS

  15. Bidecadal change of annual temperature (°C) (relative to 1961-1990) A2: Altas emisiones 2030-2049 1.5°C – 2°C 2080-2099 >4°C

  16. Bidecadal change of annual precipitation (%) (relative to 1961-1990) Colors other than white indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change 2010-2029 -14% (26mm) 2080-2099 -36% (66mm)

  17. Bi-decadal change of seasonal precipitation (%) under A2 . Colors other than white indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change 2080-2099 minus 1961-1990 DJF MAM JJA

  18. Change in winter (DJF) precipitation (%) in Baja California . (relative to 1961-1990; blue dots indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change) Large variability: El Niño DJF DJF

  19. URBAN DEVELOPMENT: VULNERABILITY El Descanso, Baja California Playas de Tijuana Road Tecate-Ensenada

  20. (Tomado de Winckell & Le Page, 2003). TIJUANA – SAN DIEGO BORDER Risk areas during heavy precipitation events San Diego Tijuana

  21. Water Availability PresentProjectionto 2100 (Galindo 2008) Water Availability in BC: 2,500 Mm3/yr Per inhabitant: 1,000 m3/yr (Galindo 2008)

  22. Conclusions y Recommendations • Temperature in BC could increase between 1.5 • and 4.5oC during the 21st century • Precipitation could decrease from 15 to 36% • Major Challenges: Water and extreme events • Efficient use of water and irrigation • Treatment and reuse of water • Desalinization? • Drought resistant plants • Urban Development • Monitoring, forecast and prevention

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