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The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis

The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis. Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009. Outline. Pre-crisis Economic & Financial Market Conditions The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis The Policy Response to the Financial Crisis The Economic Outlook

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The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis

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  1. The Economic Outlook &the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009

  2. Outline • Pre-crisis Economic & Financial Market Conditions • The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis • The Policy Response to the Financial Crisis • The Economic Outlook • Tasmania and the Crisis • Medium term challenges and pressures

  3. Chart 1: World Economic Growth Source: IMF and Treasury.

  4. Chart 2: Merchandise World Trade Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)

  5. Chart 3: US & Australia Stock Prices Source: Thomson Reuters

  6. Chart 4: Corporate Bond Spreads Note: Find data that shows narrowing of spread, then widening, and then gradual reduction. Source: Bloomberg.

  7. Chart 5: Commodity Price Index Note: To be changed to RBA Commodity Price Index Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

  8. Chart 6: Terms of Trade Note: Only latest forecast needed Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5302.0 and Treasury.

  9. Chart 7: Industrial Production United States euro area Other East Asia and Japan China Note: Other East Asia* excludes Vietnam, Hong Kong, China and Japan.Source: Relevant National Statistical Agencies and Treasury calculations.

  10. Chart 8: IMF 2009 GDP Growth Advanced World Source: International Monetary Fund.

  11. Chart 9: IMF research on dynamicsof recession and recovery Amplitude Duration Source: International Monetary Fund.

  12. Chart 10: Official Cash Rate Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury.

  13. Chart 11: Interest Rates Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury.

  14. Chart 12: Exchange Rates Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

  15. Chart 13: Composition of stimulus Source: Treasury.

  16. Chart 14: Estimated Impact of Stimulus: GDP Forecasts Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.

  17. Chart 15: Estimated Impact of Stimulus: unemployment rate Forecasts Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0 and Treasury.

  18. Chart 16: Contribution of fiscal stimulus to GDP Growth Source: Treasury.

  19. Chart 17: International Comparison of GDP growth (year to June 2009) Source: International Monetary Fund.

  20. Chart 18: Unemployment rate Note: Need to include OECD average Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0, Thomson Reuters and Treasury.

  21. Chart 19: Confidence Consumers Businesses Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute, National Australia Bank, DX and OECD.

  22. Chart 20: Retail Trade in Australia and major advanced economies Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501.0 and Thomson Reuters.

  23. Chart 21: Australian Retail Trade Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501.0.

  24. Chart 22: Construction Work Done Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8755.0.

  25. Chart 23: China GDP Source: CEIC China database and Treasury..

  26. Chart 24: GDP growth Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.

  27. Chart 25: Domestic Final Demand Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206.0 and Treasury.

  28. Chart 26: Unemployment rate Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

  29. Chart 27: Trend Unemployment Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

  30. Chart 28: Gross Household disposable income per capita (current prices) Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5220.0.

  31. Chart 29: Employment to Population Ratio Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

  32. Chart 30: Full Time Employment to Population Ratio Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202.0.

  33. Chart 31: Observed Changes in Rainfall Reliability Source: Bureau of Rural Sciences.

  34. Chart 32: Population settlement patterns Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network 2005, Columbia University;and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). Gridded Population of the World,Version 3. Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University.

  35. Chart 33: China, India Convergence Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, IMF and Treasury.

  36. The Economic Outlook &the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony McDonald 4 December 2009

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