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Crop Market Outlook

Crop Market Outlook. June 1, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. Corn Acreage. Top: 2014 Intended acres Bottom: Change from 2013

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Crop Market Outlook

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  1. Crop Market Outlook June 1, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Corn Acreage Top: 2014 Intended acres Bottom: Change from 2013 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Soybean Acreage Top: 2014 Intended acres Bottom: Change from 2013 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Principal Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Time between Survey & Planting Source: USDA-NASS

  9. Corn Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS

  10. Soybean Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS

  11. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  12. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  13. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  14. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  15. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  16. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  17. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  18. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  19. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  20. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  21. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  22. Current Corn Futures 4.59 4.45 4.40 Source: CME Group, 5/30/2014

  23. Current Soybean Futures 13.16 12.01 11.56 Source: CME Group, 5/30/2014

  24. Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

  25. Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

  26. 2013/14 Crop Prices

  27. 2014/15 Crop Margins

  28. Source: droughtmonitor.unl.edu

  29. 3-Month Temperature Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC

  30. 3-Month Precipitation Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC

  31. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Initial supply and demand at record levels • Planting progress is back to the 5-year average • Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term • El Niño watch for summer continues

  32. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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