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Renewables-Intensive Energy Scenarios for the UK

Renewables-Intensive Energy Scenarios for the UK. Intro: UK Renewables: Current Status & EU 2020 Targets DECC Renewable Energy Roadmap to 2020 UK Climate Change Committee Scenarios to 2030 WWF/GLGH High Renewable Electricity Scenarios 2030 Poyry ‘ Max ’ Electricity Scenario for 2050

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Renewables-Intensive Energy Scenarios for the UK

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  1. Renewables-Intensive Energy Scenarios for the UK • Intro: UK Renewables: Current Status & EU 2020 Targets • DECC Renewable Energy Roadmap to 2020 • UK Climate Change Committee Scenarios to 2030 • WWF/GLGH High Renewable Electricity Scenarios 2030 • Poyry ‘Max’Electricity Scenario for 2050 • DECC High Renewables Pathway to 2050 • UK Pugwash Very High Renewables Pathway to 2050 • CAT Zero Carbon Britain: 100% Renewables by 2030 • Comparison of Scenarios: Deployment Rates, Costs • UK c.f. Germany’s Energiewende • Conclusion: UK Renewables Policy Could be Much More Ambitious! Presentation to Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, 20thSep 2013 Godfrey Boyle, Professor of Renewable Energy, The Open University, UK

  2. EU 20:20:20 Target for 2020: Renewables to supply 20% of Final (delivered) energy EU & UK 2020 Targets UK Renewable Energy in 2012 Within EU Target, UK Target: Renewables to Supply 15% of final energy by 2020 (c.234TWh) Progress to Date: By 2012 UK Renewables Supplied: c. 4% of Final Energy (c.60TWh), c. 12% of Electricity, c. 2% Heat/Cool Energy, c. 3% Transport Energy Deployment Rate Must Increase to c.22 TWh/yr to Hit 2020 Target (see Fig 1 below)

  3. UK Commitment: Renewables to Provide c. 15% of Delivered Energy by 2020 DECC Renewable Energy Roadmap View to 2020 Deployment Target: 234 TWh by 2020 (- 60 TWh from RE in 2012) = 174 TWh in c.8 yrs Deployment Rate = c. 22 TWh/yr

  4. UK Climate Change Committee Scenarios to 2030 In High (46%) Scenario RE Delivers c.800 TWh in 2030 RE Deployment Rate: 800-60 TWh = 740 TWh in 17 yrs = 44 TWh/yr. Of which: 65% is Elec. 50% is Heat 25% Transport Main Source: Wind Renewables to Supply 30-65% of Electricity, 35-50% of Heat & 11-25% of Transport (all delivered energy)

  5. WWF/GLGH Positive Energy Report 2011: ‘Stretch’ Scenario for 2030 By 2030, 130 GW of Renewable Capacity Supplies 295 TWh (87% of ReducedElectricity Demand) Renewable ElectricityDeployment Rate: 295-35= c.260 TWh in c.19 yrs = c.14 TWh/yr Report Stresses that 2015-20 Ren. Elec. Deploy Rate must be maintained in 2020-30

  6. Poyry 2011: Scenarios for UK Electricity in 2050 In Max Scenario Wind (Offshore & Onshore) is Main RE Contributor (c.80%) Renew. Elec. Deployment Rate: 700-60 =640 TWh over 37yrs = c.17 TWh/yr In V.Hi. Scenario: c.490TWh (c.80%) of Elec. from RE by 2050 In Max Scenario: c.700 TWh (c.94%) of Elec. from RE by 2050

  7. UK Supply Mixes 1960-2010 & in DECCPathways to 2050: ‘Spread’ & ‘Non Nuclear’ In DECC ‘Non-Nuclear’ 2050 Scenario, Renewables Supply c.60% of 8EJ Primary Energy, i.e. c.1350TWh RE Deployment Rate: c.1350-60 = 1290 TWh in c. 37 yrs =c.35 TWh/yr

  8. UK Pugwash 2013 Very High Renewables Scenario 2050, Using DECC Pathways Authors Elliott & Finney @ Open University By 2050 Renewables c.80% of UK Electricity & c 80% of Delivered Energy Ren. Elec. Deploy. Rate = (550-60)/37 = 13 TWh/yr

  9. Powerdown: Demand reduced by 60% Power-up: Supply inc. to 100% Renewable by 2030 Zero Carbon Britain - Zero GHGs by 2030, via ‘Powerdown’ & ‘Power-up’

  10. ZCB 2030 Energy Flow DiagramTotal Deliv. Energy: c.750 TWh/yr

  11. Zero Carbon Britain 2030: Hourly Model of Demand & RE Supply 10 Year HourlyModel (87600 data points) of UK Renewable Electricity Supply & Demand Seven Day Example >>> Shows surpluses & Shortfalls>>

  12. ZCB: Supply & Demand Matched via Synthetic Methane & Liquid Fuels from Renewable Electricity & CO2 Renewable Elec. & CO2 from Biomass, via Sabatier Process, gives Synthetic Methane for backup Elec. Gen. (in CCGTs) & Industrial Use. Fischer-Tropsch (FT) Process gives Liquid fuels for Transport & Industry

  13. Fraunhofer & Audi: Renewable Electricity + CO2 to Synthetic Methane Audi Release June 13: “Audi has opened the doors to its new power-to-gas facility, which will make …E-gas. “The plant produces hydrogen and synthetic methane … from renewable energy, water and carbon dioxide. (…) “Major German energy utilities have since taken up the idea of power-to-gas cogeneration and are following Audi with initial projects of their own.”

  14. Deployment Rates Electricity: 13-17 TWh/yr Delivered Energy: 22-44TWh/yr Primary Energy: 35TWh/yr UK High-Renewable Scenarios: Comparison of Deployment RatesDECC Roadmap Deliv. En. Deploy Rate 2013-2020: 22 TWh/yr

  15. Cost Comparison of Hi-Renewable, Hi-Nuclear & Intermed. Scenarios to 2050, from Pugwash Report Total Costs/capita/yr, 2010-2050, from DECC Pathways calculator: • Hi Renewables: • £4378- £6588 • Hi Nuclear: • £3404-£7178 • Intermediate: • £4485-£6554 • Costs approx. equal in all three pathways

  16. By 2030: >50% of Elec. & c.30% of Deliv. Energy By 2050: Primary Energy -50% Renewables >80% of Elec. & c.60% of Deliv. Energy UK vs. Germany’s High Renewable Future via Energiewende

  17. Summary & Conclusions • UK has probably the best Renewable resources in Europe • Current UK Government plans for Renewable Energy Deployment to 2020 are very un-ambitious – and no targets after 2020 • Many Studies show great potential for further Renewable deployment to 2030 & 2050 • Scenarios suggest Renewables could be providing >80% of UK Electricity, or nearly all Delivered Energy, by 2030-2050 • Delivered Energy Deployment Rates feasible by 2050 -- but maybe not by 2030 unless Government makes much stronger commitment! • High-Renewable Scenario’s Total Costs are no more than in other Scenarios (e.g. High Nuclear) • Germany’s Energiewende shows the way towards a Very High-Renewable Future for a large country like UK • UK Government could & should adopt a much more ambitious approach to deployment of renewable energy!

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