REGIONAL TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL IMPROVEMENT PROJECT

1. REGIONAL TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL IMPROVEMENT PROJECT An Update to The SCAG Regional Modeling Task Force By March 26, 2003

2. March 26, 2003 2 Presentation Overview Project Scope Activity Update Common MPO Improvements Future Needs Short-Term Model Improvements Continuing & Future Activities

3. March 26, 2003 3 Project Scope Purpose & Objectives Technical Approach Schedule

4. March 26, 2003 4 Purpose & Objectives Region’s growth outstripping current tools Significant trade-offs must be considered Enhance the model’s responsiveness Improve the analysis of emerging issues Increase utility for regional consistency Models are important to decision-making Models are important to decision-making

5. March 26, 2003 5 Technical Approach Review the previous improvement program Inventory other MPOs’ programs Identify future modeling needs Review SCAG’s current regional model Develop a short-term improvement program Develop a long-range strategy Assemble a model review panel Coordinate with the Modeling Task Force Prepare final report Lessons learned Summary of possible directions (2 mos) Variety of key person interviews Updated documentation & assess priorities Quick and cost-effective improvements over next couple of years TRANSIMS and regional coordination January 25 meeting a good indication of value to project Acceptance and consistency is the goal Summary compilation of study findings Lessons learned Summary of possible directions (2 mos) Variety of key person interviews Updated documentation & assess priorities Quick and cost-effective improvements over next couple of years TRANSIMS and regional coordination January 25 meeting a good indication of value to project Acceptance and consistency is the goal Summary compilation of study findings

6. March 26, 2003 6 Original Schedule

7. March 26, 2003 7 Activity Update Other MPO Improvement Programs 12 large MPO model improvement programs Candidate Peer Review Panel members Future Modeling Needs Opportunities for improvement Expanded modeling capability Short-Term Model Improvements Retain structure - model recalibration Incremental component enhancement

8. March 26, 2003 8 Recent ActivitiesMPOs Surveyed Baltimore (BMC) Boston (CTPS) Denver (DRCOG) Detroit (SEMCOG) Houston (HGAC) Los Angeles (SCAG) New York (NYMTC) Portland (Metro) Sacramento (SACOG) San Francisco (MTC) Seattle (PSRC) Washington (WashCOG)

9. March 26, 2003 9 Common MPO Improvements Transportation-Land Use Integration Volume-Delay Curves Trip Generation External Trips Trip Purpose Expansion Trip Distribution Models Destination-Choice Trip Distribution Models Mode Choice Models Nested Logit Models Zone Structure Revision Area Typology Truck Modeling Time of Day Modeling Peak Spreading Models Regional Travel Surveys Tour-based Activity Modeling

10. March 26, 2003 10 Future Needs Implement sub-area modeling capability Perform highway assignment validation for both volumes & speeds Refine heavy duty truck model Develop transportation-land use linkage Improve HOV modeling Link and inter-relate all modeling components Improve data collection for modeling purposes

11. March 26, 2003 11 Short-Term Improvements Recalibrate trip generation & distribution models Recalibrate mode choice model Revise highway network assignment Multimodal Highway Network Assignment Volume-Delay Curves Peak and Off-peak Network Refinement Heavy-Duty Truck Passenger Car Equivalents Supplemental Improvements Peak Spreading External Trips

12. March 26, 2003 12 Continuing & Future Activities Summarize Current Model Improvements Procure Short-Term Model Improvements Organize Model Review Panel Session Develop Long-Range Improvements