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A new measure of reconviction in Scotland

A new measure of reconviction in Scotland. Ian Morton, Justice Analytical Services Justice Statistics User Day March 5 th , 2012. Summary. Reconviction - what it is and what it isn’t User requirements How we obtain data to measure it Old measure New measure Benefits of new measure

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A new measure of reconviction in Scotland

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  1. A new measure of reconviction in Scotland Ian Morton, Justice Analytical Services Justice Statistics User Day March 5th, 2012

  2. Summary • Reconviction - what it is and what it isn’t • User requirements • How we obtain data to measure it • Old measure • New measure • Benefits of new measure • Interactive tables – a demonstration • Results • Scotland Performs • A game – but may be in your own time

  3. Reconviction – what it is and what it isn’t • Offending versus convictions • E.g. (Police) unrecorded, (COPFS) not enough evidence, (Judiciary) found not guilty • Reoffending versus reconvictions • Same reasons as above • Inclusions: • E.g. Fines • Exclusions • E.g. Most minor driving offences • Comparing rates with other countries • Don’t do it! • Caveat: (in this presentation) court convictions only

  4. User requirements • Internal policy • To help inform progress for the “Reducing Reoffending Programme” • 5 broad strategies: deterrence, supervision, rehabilitation, reparation and incapacitation • CJAs • for strategic planning (plan and target resources effectively). • LAs and other stakeholders • more accurate feedback on performance to partners. • Ad-hocs • Parliamentary Questions • Freedom of Information Requests • Evaluations • To attempt to demonstrate effectiveness of programmes. • Research • gaining understanding about the age-crime curve • Scotland Performs (more later)

  5. How we obtain data to measure it • CHS (maintained by the SPSA) • Sentences and Charges • From courts and constitution team • SOI (created from the charges) • Convictions • Index convictions in a cohort • Follow- up reconvictions • Based on main crime • May be more than one charge • E.g. breach of the peace, and failing to appear

  6. Ye olde measure • Reconviction rate • Based upon offenders being reconvicted • Yes/no decision • Non-prolific (e.g. violent) versus prolific (e.g. shoplifters) ? • A disposal of a DTTO has the highest reconviction rate (one year rate about 64%) • 2 year follow-up • Wait a long while to get results

  7. The 21st Century • Reconviction frequency rate • Based upon convictions by an offender, rather than offenders • Based upon a count, rather than yes/no • Can see more of an impact from prolific offenders (e.g. for shoplifting) • 1 year follow-up • More up-to-date than 2 year follow-up

  8. Benefits of new measure • More timely and more sensitive

  9. Interactive tables • Demonstration of the new tables (Excel spreadsheet)

  10. Results • Over the past seven years there has been a decline in reconviction frequency rate from 63.9 to 57.9; a reduction of 6 reconvictions for every 100 offenders • Most questions (in this order) • Short custodial sentences versus community sentences • Offensive weapons • Sex offenders • Young offenders, and women offenders

  11. Scotland Performs • Strategic Objective • Safer and Stronger. • National Outcome 9 • We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger. • National Indicator • Reduce reconviction rates. • The reconviction frequency rate decreased by 1.8 reconvictions per 100 offenders, from 59.7 in the baseline year of 2006-07 to 57.9 in 2008-09. • Website (http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/scotPerforms/indicator/reconviction)

  12. To summarise - A game • See handout • Please try the game out: • It is (supposed to be) fun • It will also remind you about this workshop

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