Research needs and gaps related to the development and evaluation of M/A policy portfolios

1. Promitheas-4: Knowledge transfer and research needsfor preparing mitigation / adaptation policy portfolios Research needs and gapsrelated to the development and evaluation of M/A policy portfolios L. Radulov, A. Nikolaev Black Sea Regional Energy Centre ATHENS

2. OBJECTIVES • To summarize the research needs and gaps encountered during the work on Promitheas-4 project, in relation to the development and evaluation of M/A policy portfolios • Coverage: 12 project beneficiary countries: • Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine ATHENS

3. SCOPE • Research gaps and needs are identified in the following fields: • National procedures, sources, and data for M/A policy portfolios, including national GHG inventory, reporting, verification • Availability of historical data (1990 – 2010) needed as a basis for the scenario development: demographics, economy, climate, policies and measures, energy demand, energy transformation • Availability of modeling tools to simulate the M/A policy effects • Availability of information for 2011-2050 for the development of M/A policy scenarios, i.e. climate, demographics, economy, policies, energy demand, energy transformation forecasts • Availability of information to carry out scenario evaluation ATHENS

4. National procedures, sources, and data : Needs (1) • Strengthening of institutional, legal and procedural arrangements, as well as the capacity and coordination of participating bodies • Improving the transparency of the inventory and data consistency • In non-Annex I countries, the regulatory framework concerning organizational, administrative, and informational issues needs improvement, energy balances need to become more reliable and complete, standard Eurostat NACEcodes need to be implemented • Improving the completeness of reporting ATHENS

5. National procedures, sources, and data: Needs (2) • Quality assurance (QA), quality control (QC), and verification activities need to be enhanced by setting-up a sustainable MRV system • Using electronic links and automated procedures for data entry and storage of sources and references, further automation of the emission calculation • Improvement and enrichment of the capacity of national statistics • Research on development of country specific emission factors ATHENS

6. HISTORICAL DATA: GENERAL PROBLEMS • The collection of historical data since 1990 proved to be impossible and/or irrelevant for most of the countries because several countries underwent major restructuring • Substantial changes in the data classification took place, due to transition to Eurostat methodology • In almost all countries there are no available data in electronic format for the period 1990 – 1999 • Some data are available only upon request to the responsible authority ATHENS

7. HISTORICAL DATA: NEEDS • To integrate data about frequency of extreme events, availability and use of water resources, land management, and added value of industrial sub-sectors into the national statistical system • To make available energy demand data, both in energy and financial units, not only for each sector of economy (transport, industry, services), but also for their sub-sectors • To make available economic and technical data about energy capacities • To make available official information about the M/A policies and measures, mainly regarding financial incentives (soft loans and subsidies) and land management ATHENS

8. AVAILABILITY OF MODELING TOOLS • Adaptation policies and their effects on the economy and the environment are not directly integrated in the models; their integration is needed • Some energy models reflect well the situation in more developed countries but need to be adapted to the characteristics of economies in transition • Tools need to better reflect the economic functions, such as utility, agents’ time horizon, heterogeneous demand structure, discounting rate, and consideration of environmental costs and benefits ATHENS

9. Availability of information for 2011-2050: Needs (1) • Development of long-term (e.g. by 2050) national GDP forecasts, considering how the GDP share of each sector and sub-sector is expected to evolve over the time • Development of reliable long-term climate forecasts, possibly in scenarios, depending on the anthropogenic GHG emissions. Forecasts of extreme events and water resources are missing in almost all countries • Assessment of the climate change effects on each of the vulnerable sectors, identification of the adaptation needs, and design of policies and measures to address these needs ATHENS

10. Availability of information for 2011-2050: Needs (2) • Development of energy demand forecasts by 2050, broken down by sector / sub-sector and by fuel consumed in each sector / sub-sector. These forecasts include assessment of the energy efficiency potential and renewable energy potential • Development of long-term forecasts for the energy transformation capacities, including construction of new and phasing-out of existing capacities, expected cost and technical parameters (efficiency, availability, etc.) of each type of capacity • Assessment of the effects (energy, emissions, costs) of the current and planned M/A policies ATHENS

11. Scenarios evaluation: Needs • Ex-ante evaluation of policies, including feasibility of implementation and effects on the environment, costs, competitiveness, equity, etc. (a similar need was identified in the development of M/A scenarios – see above) • Establishment of policy monitoring and evaluation procedures to better understand the performance of the already implemented policies; publication of the monitoring and evaluation results • Development of the capacity to apply a multi-criteria evaluation method – in most of the countries there is no experience with the method ATHENS

12. Promitheas-4: Knowledge transfer and research needsfor preparing mitigation / adaptation policy portfolios THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! L. Radulov, A. Nikolaev Black Sea Regional Energy Centre ATHENS