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QAD Demand Management

QAD Demand Management. Lance LaCross, CPA, CPIM QAD Solutions Consultant October 9, 2011. 2011 Fall CAUG Session. 2011 Fall CAUG Session. Agenda. Forecasting Goals What & When Do we Need It? Solution Overview Basic Forecasting Demand Management Demand Management V6.1

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QAD Demand Management

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  1. QAD Demand Management Lance LaCross, CPA, CPIM QAD Solutions Consultant October 9, 2011 2011 Fall CAUG Session

  2. 2011 Fall CAUG Session Agenda • Forecasting Goals • What & When Do we Need It? • Solution Overview • Basic Forecasting • Demand Management • Demand Management V6.1 • Components & New Features • Summary

  3. Fall 2011 CAUG Session Forecasting Definition • Comprised of Two Words • Fore • Casting • Look Out • Throw Out

  4. Value Chain

  5. Balance – Supply vs. Demand

  6. Statistical Probability • Example - Dice In A Craps Game

  7. Audience Questions • How are you forecasting today? • Excel? • 3rd Party Package? • Crystal Ball? • How many SKUs? • What does your product hierarchy look like? • What is your input to the forecast? • Do you conduct a formal Sales & Operations Planning Meeting? • What type of adjustments are made?

  8. Demand Forecasting Goals • Understanding and predicting customer demand is vital to manufacturers and distributors to avoid stock-outs and maintain adequate inventory levels. While forecasts are never perfect, they are necessary to prepare for actual demand. In order to maintain an optimized inventory and effective supply chain, accurate demand forecasts are imperative. • Similar to a dice game - to win you want to minimize the probability of inaccurate data used to drive your organization

  9. Typical Demand Forecasting Goals • Reduce forecast error • At SKU Level • More time spent in analysis versus hunting for issues • Exception based • Provide an easy, consistent method for capturing inputs to the forecast • Know accuracy by sources of input • Capture thoughts on adjustments • Use the forecast and customer orders to drive planning

  10. Sample Requirements • Twelve to Eighteen Month Visibility • More Process Automation • Takes 10 hours to compile data to get to the sales staff and Export to Excel. • Ability to Handle Growth • What happens if we double our business? • Getting forecasts from new acquisitions? • What if we decide to drive MRP with forecast? • It has to be easy enough for the sales force to use and provide input.

  11. QAD Basic Forecasting

  12. QAD Basic Forecasting

  13. QAD Basic Forecasting

  14. QAD Basic Forecasting

  15. QAD Demand Management – Tool To Help With Your Navigation

  16. Demand Management Defined • Demand Management: • Extensive statistical forecasting based on history, forecast, or other data series • Alerts to notify of exceptional circumstances • Inventory policies based on forecast variability and service level • Collaborative forecasting between suppliers and customers • Sales and Operations Planning “…actively managing demand signals to better sense demand (think of monitoring consumption instead of orders), [and] incorporating downstream data with a higher frequency of modeling (weekly or daily)” -- Source: AMR

  17. QAD’s Demand-Driven Suite • Demand Management Engine • Collaborative Portal • Inventory Optimization • Rough-cut Planning • Sales & Operations Planning

  18. Demand Management

  19. QAD’s Demand Driven Suite Collaborative Portal Informal ERP Excel SQL Access QAD Other ERP SCM BI S&OP Inventory Optimization Demand Management Engine Rough Cut

  20. Sales & Operations Planning Demand Planners Sales & Marketing Category Management Product Management Demand Forecast Demand Executive Review Resolve Issues Set Direction Determine Strategic Impact Consensus Supply Chain Operations Engineering Logistics Supply Forecast Supply Actual Results Reviewed & Analyzed Re-Forecast & Consensus Meeting Executive Review Meeting

  21. Assisting the Supply Chain • Forecasting • Communicating • Life Cycle Management • Optimizing • Balancing • Planning • Measuring

  22. Forecasting • Robust statistical engine • Error tracking • Allocation • EDI, POS, and on-line data • Planning bills

  23. Forecast Maintenance • Daily, Weekly, Quarterly, Monthly Buckets • Forecasting horizon is user defined • Forecast can be shipment, order history, etc. • Unlimited years of history • 32 forecasting algorithms with best fit, email and on screen alerts, and 26 accuracy measurements

  24. Statistics, Methods & Techniques

  25. Hierarchies • Hierarchies are used to: • View data at aggregate levels such as Product Class, Sales Region, or Customer • Reconcile changes made at various levels • Provide history to create statistical forecasts at aggregate level FORECAST

  26. Hierarchies SBU FAMILY • Top Down • Bottom Up • Middle Out PRODUCT PRODUCT DIST CENTER PRODUCT CUST DIST CENTER SUPPLY-SIDE HIERARCHY MARKET FAMILY MARKET PRODUCT CUST DIST CENTER DEMAND-SIDE HIERARCHY

  27. ERP DM Integration

  28. Communicating • Share information • Exceptions • Promotions or events • Reporting • Security

  29. Life Cycle Management • Specific calculations • Profiles • Like New Items • Cloning/same as • Collaborate

  30. Optimizing • Optimize: • Safety Stocks • Service Levels • Order Points • Periods of Coverage • Lead Times

  31. Balancing • Balance Supply & Demand through key resources • Equipment • Raw Materials • Labor • Subcontracting • What-if Analysis

  32. Planning • Link medium to long term operations • Business goals • Operational planning • Financial planning • Model effect on supply capabilities and financials

  33. Measuring • Improved visibility • Enhanced decision making • Reporting and analysis capabilities for all levels of the enterprise.

  34. DME 6.1 Overview • Demand Management Engine • New user interface • Filters and Exceptions • Hierarchy Manager • Profile/Lifecycle Forecasting • Event Manager • DME Admin Tool • New features, better control, greater flexibility relative to Base Unit • Improved Planning Portal for collaboration

  35. DME Viewer – New User Interface

  36. DME Viewer

  37. Hierarchy

  38. Profiles

  39. Custom Task Manager

  40. Conversions

  41. Conversion Groups

  42. Notes

  43. DM Engine, Admin Tool & Batch Scheduler DME Admin Batch Scheduler

  44. Views Available Multi Series View Series Information Graph View Data View

  45. Graph Filters

  46. Filter Management

  47. Exceptions • Used in the DM Viewer to limit series displayed • Selects series with observation data that meets a defined criteria • Example: Find SKU’s with unusual growth • identify SKU’s with no sales for 6 months • identify large user adjustments

  48. Exceptions

  49. Data Permission & Domains • Permits system administrator to restrict access to information by job function or individual • Sales reps for Customer X could be limited to only view the historical sales and forecasts for their customer • Regional Marketing Managers could be limited to view and adjust promotional information in their regions only

  50. Events • Events are special situations or actions that can change forecasting behavior • Examples of Events: • Sales promotion expected to drive volume up 20% for a month • Store closing for remodeling will result in selling 20,000 less units over a two month range • New contract ensures the sale of 10,000 units over the next four months

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