Space Weather Impacts and Some Schemes for Thinking About Them

1. Space Weather Impactsand Some Schemes for Thinking About Them Delores Knipp Department of Physics, USAF Academy Significant Contributions from Space Weather Colleagues Especially Mr Bill Murtagh (NOAA/SEC) and Dr Greg Ginet (USAF/AFRL)

2. Framework(s) for Impacts • Heliocentric • Solar Emissions • User-centric • Who cares? • Geocentric • Where on Earth? • Signals and Systems • Space Weather vs Space Environment

3. Heliocentric--Solar Emissions B Field/ Plasma ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS DURATION: DAYS Electromagnetic Radiation ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS High Energy Charged Particles ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: HOURS-DAYS EFFECTS EFFECTS EFFECTS

4. Disturbed Solar Emissions Flares Enhanced B Field/ Plasma Clouds ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS DURATION: DAYS Enhanced Electromagnetic Radiation ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS High Energy Charged Particles ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: HOURS-DAYS EFFECTS EFFECTS EFFECTS • HF RADIO BLACKOUT • SATCOM INTERFERENCE • RADAR INTERFERENCE • IMAGE INTERFERENCE

5. Courtesy Lockheed Martin

6. Disturbed Solar Emissions Mass Ejections Flares Enhanced B Field/ Plasma Clouds ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS DURATION: DAYS Enhanced Electromagnetic Radiation ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS High Energy Charged Particles ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: HOURS-DAYS EFFECTS EFFECTS EFFECTS EFFECTS • HIGH-LATITUDE HF RADIO BLACKOUT • SATELLITE DISORIENTATION • SPACECRAFT DAMAGE • FALSE SENSOR READINGS • LAUNCH PAYLOAD FAILURE • RADIATION EXPOSURE

7. Disturbed Solar Emissions Helicity/Mass Ejections Enhanced B Field/ Plasma Clouds ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS DURATION: DAYS Enhanced Electromagnetic Radiation ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS High Energy Charged Particles ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: HOURS-DAYS EFFECTS EFFECTS EFFECTS • HF RADIO BLACKOUT • SATELLITE ORBIT DECAY • RADAR FALSETARGETS • SATCOM INTERFERENCE • POWER GRID DISTURBANCES

8. Pause for Inquiry—How are these monitored? B Field/ Plasma ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS DURATION: DAYS Electromagnetic Radiation ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS High Energy Charged Particles ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: HOURS-DAYS MONITORS MONITORS MONITORS

9. User-centric—Who Cares? National and International Level Users SIGNAL EFFECTS SYSTEMEFFECTS Civil Military Dual Scintillations Navigation/Communications Ionospheric Currents Ground Induced Currents Electron Density Profiles—Comm and Nav Neutral Atmosphere Variations—Satellite Drag Space Radiation—System and Human Exposure

10. Geocentric—Where on Earth? SPACE ENVIRONMENT SPACE WEATHER SYSTEMEFFECTS SIGNAL EFFECTS Ground Orbital Sub-orbital Polar Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide High Mid-Latitude Low Thermospheric Ionospheric Meso/Stratospheric Tropospheric BEO GEO HEO MEO LEO

11. Beyond, Geostationary, Highly Eccentric, Medium, Low Earth Orbit BEO ACE, SOHO POLAR GPS POES GOES

12. Geocentric—Where on Earth? SIGNAL EFFECTS SYSTEMEFFECTS Ground Orbital Sub-orbital Polar Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide High Mid-Latitude Low Thermospheric Ionospheric Meso/Stratospheric Tropospheric BEO GEO HEO MEO LEO

13. BEO--Beyond Earth Orbit Energetic Particles-Solar Arrays (SOHO) SOHO’s Solar Array Degradation History Solar array degradation: Net loss in two week period 1.1%

14. BEO--Beyond Earth Orbit Energetic Particles-DEEP Space Missions SYSTEMEFFECTS Mars Odyssey - Spacecraft entered safe mode during the severe radiation storm. The MARIE instrument on the Mars Odyssey had a temperature red alarm leading to power-off on October 28. The instrument did not recover. Stardust - Comet mission went into safe mode due to read errors; recovered. SMART-1 - Auto shutdown of engine due to radiation levels in lunar transfer orbit. Reported a total of 3 shutdowns; decided not to thrust below altitude of 104 km. Mars Explorer Rover - Spacecraft entered “Sun Idle” mode due to excessive star tracker events. Waited out event and recovered. Microwave Anisotropy Probe - Spacecraft star tracker reset, and backup tracker autonomously turned on. Prime tracker recovered. Mars Express - Spacecraft had to use gyroscopes for stabilization, due to loss of stars as reference points. The radiation storm blinded the orbiter's star trackers for 15 hours. The flares also delayed a scheduled Beagle 2 checkout procedure. *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

15. Geocentric—Where on Earth? SIGNAL EFFECTS SYSTEMEFFECTS Edge of Space Ground Orbital Sub-orbital Polar Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide Thermospheric Ionospheric Meso/Stratospheric Tropospheric BEO GEO HEO MEO LEO High Mid-Latitude Low

16. GEO, HEO and MEO Impacts Categorized by Region GEO, HEO, MEO • Magnetic Field Anomalies • Satellites in these orbits are usually immersed in Earths northward directed field • During extreme magnetopause compression the satellites could sense solar wind field of various orientations. GEO, HEO, MEO • Space and Radiation Belt Hazards • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets • Surface and internal charging / discharging • Human tissue damage

17. GEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts SYSTEMEFFECTS Kodama, Data Relay Test Satellite (DRTS) - Went into safe mode during a severe (S4) solar radiation storm. The DRTS is a geostationary communications satellite that relays data among Low Earth Orbit (300-1,000 km altitude) spacecraft (including the International Space Station) and ground stations. GOES-9, 10 and 12 - High bit error rates (9 and 10) and magnetic torquers disabled (12) due to solar activity. Inmarsat (fleet of 9 geosynchronous satellites) - Controllers at their Satellite Control Centre had to quickly react to the solar activity to control Inmarsat’s fleet of geosynchronous satellites. Two experienced speed increases in momentum wheels requiring firing of thrusters, and one had outage when its CPU tripped out. TV and Pay Radio Satellite Services: TV satellite controllers resorted to "manual attitude control" for 18-hour to 24-hour periods due to magnetopause crossing events that affected the attitude controller of two or more of their fleet. Pay radio satellite had several short-lived periods where they lost satellite lock. *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

18. CLUSTER Solar Array Panel Degradation ~1.4% Provided by NASA Space Science Mission Operations Put SAMPEX Data Here

19. Energetic Electrons in the Radiation Belts Put SAMPEX Data Here

20. GEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit High Speed Solar Wind and “Killer Electrons” SYSTEMEFFECTS Courtesy Dan Baker

21. BEO--Beyond Earth Orbit Energetic Particles-Star Trackers (SOHO) SYSTEMEFFECTS

22. C2 MOS Capacitor damaged by energetic particles. The capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

23. Geocentric—Where on Earth? SYSTEMEFFECTS SIGNAL EFFECTS Edge of Space Ground Orbital Sub-orbital Polar Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide Thermospheric Ionospheric Meso/Stratospheric Tropospheric BEO GEO HEO MEO LEO High Mid-Latitude Low

24. LEO--Low Earth Orbit Impacts Categorized by Region LEO Radiation Belts Sun-Atmosphere • Space and Radiation Belt Hazards • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets • Surface and internal charging / discharging • Human tissue damage • Thermospheric Hazards • Satellite Drag • Atomic Oxygen Damage

25. LEO--Low Earth Orbit Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts SYSTEMEFFECTS DMSP F16 - SSIES sensor lost data twice, on October 28 and November 03; Microwave sounder lost oscillator; Switched to redundant system. CHANDRA - Observations halted on several occasions during the October-November activity, including an extended outage from October 28 – November 01. NOAA-17 spacecraft experienced a significant problem with the scan motors of the AMSU-A1. The instrument was powered down and no recovery efforts are planned. Aqua, Landsat, Terra, TOMS, TRMM - NASA’s Earth Sciences Mission Office directed all instruments on these five spacecraft be turned off or safed due to the extreme solar storm prediction (October 29). UARS/HALOE - Turn on of the instrument was delayed due to solar activity. *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

26. LEO--Low Earth Orbit Oct-Nov 2003 International Space Station Impacts SYSTEMEFFECTS Astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) were directed to take shelter in the service module during the peak exposure intervals of the October 28-30 radiation storms. NASA also stowed the 56-foot-long Space Station Remote Manipulator System (robotic arm) during this period to prevent damage to this billion-dollar instrument. ISS altitude loss as a result of atmospheric drag Courtesy of NASA *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

27. Space Environment--Low Earth Orbit Samples exposed on LDEF Atomic Oxygen reactions with surfaces on the ISS (Courtesy NASA)

28. Space Environment--Low Earth Orbit Collisions with Space Debris and Meteoroids During SYSTEMEFFECTS Damage to Hubble Solar Array from Meteoroid Impact

29. Space Environment--South Atlantic Anomaly Distribution of error events recorded in memory chips aboard a satellite. These Single Event Upset (SEU) events are caused by high energy cosmic rays interacting in the silicon - their distribution closely follows that of the increased radiation activity in the SAA region.

30. Geocentric—Where on Earth? SYSTEMEFFECTS SIGNAL EFFECTS Edge of Space Atmo-spheric Ground Orbital Sub-orbital Polar Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide Thermospheric Ionospheric Meso/Stratospheric Tropospheric BEO GEO HEO MEO LEO High Mid-Latitude Low

31. Ionosphere Impacts Categorized by Region • Auroral Region Impacts • Auroral Clutter • False Radar Detection • Communication Outages Auroral And Polar Region Direct Solar Impacts X-ray and EUV changes to Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles Ionosphere Low and Mid Latitude • Ionospheric Impacts • Comm/Nav link degradation and outage • Surveillance clutter/mischaracterization • HF propagation • Instabilities in Electro Density Profiles • Radiation Belt Impacts • Energetic Particles in South Atlantic Anomaly • Chemistry Changes

32. Space Environment-- Ionosphere Radio Communications Absorption Refraction Scattering Transmission

33. Space Environment-- Ionosphere Radio Communications Useable Frequency Changes with Local Time

34. Space Weather Ionospheric HF Communications Useable Frequency Closes on Dayside During Solar Flares

35. Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere SATCOM Communications POLAR CAP PATCHES AURORAL IRREGULARITIES SATCOM GPS PLASMA BUBBLES EQUATORIAL F LAYER ANOMALIES DAY NIGHT MAGNETIC EQUATOR SBR GPS SATCOM Image from S Basu, AFRL

36. High Latitude Ionospheric HF Communications Oct-Nov 2003 Polar Cap Communication Outage SIGNALSEFFECTS • The Antarctic science groups and staff rely on MacRelay radio operations to provide essential HF radio communications between McMurdo Station and remote sites on the Antarctic. MacRelay is also responsible for communication links with aircraft • and ships supporting the United States Antarctic Program. • MacRelay experienced over 130 hoursof HF communication blackout during the October – November activity. McMurdo staff developed a contingency plan to use Iridium satellite phones as backup during HF outages. MacRelay was made aware that space weather was causing significant HF blackout conditions, allowing them to implement contingency plans. *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

37. Mid and Low-Latitude-Ionosphere SIGNAL EFFECTS Oct-Nov Total Electron Content Variations *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

38. Scintillations--Low-Latitude-Ionosphere SIGNAL EFFECTS

39. Equatorial F-region -Ionosphere Jicamarca 50 MHz Radar Data

40. Geocentric—Where on Earth? SYSTEMEFFECTS SIGNAL EFFECTS Atmo-spheric Ground Orbital Sub-orbital Polar Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide Thermospheric Ionospheric Meso/Stratospheric Tropospheric BEO GEO HEO MEO LEO High Mid-Latitude Low

41. Strato, Tropo Spheres SYSTEMEFFECTS Faculae increase UV solar output

42. Solar UV Climate Connection Climate Modeling by J Haigh, Imperial College • Analysis of NCEP zonal winds reveals that when the sun is more active the sub-tropical jets are weaker and positioned nearer the poles • This signal is qualitatively similar to the results of GCM simulations with enhanced solar UV (and ozone) which increases static stability in the tropical regions •In a simplified GCM, imposed stratospheric warming, and associated lowering of the tropopause, weakens the jets and storm-track eddies. •Equatorial stratospheric warming displaces the jets polewards while uniform or polar warming displaces them markedly equatorwards. •Baroclinic lifecycle runs show that baroclinic waves reinforce the zonal wind anomalies.

43. Strato, Tropo Spheres Flight Radiation Impacts During Oct-Nov 2003 SYSTEMEFFECTS *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

44. Geocentric—Where on Earth? SYSTEMEFFECTS SIGNAL EFFECTS Atmo-spheric Ground Orbital Sub-orbital Polar Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide Thermospheric Ionospheric Meso/Stratospheric Tropospheric BEO GEO HEO MEO LEO High Mid-Latitude Low

45. Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere SATCOM Communications POLAR CAP PATCHES AURORAL IRREGULARITIES SATCOM GPS PLASMA BUBBLES EQUATORIAL F LAYER ANOMALIES DAY NIGHT MAGNETIC EQUATOR SBR GPS SATCOM Image from S Basu, AFRL

46. Polar Communications Outages Over a Dozen Transpolar Flights Re-routed

47. Mid-latitude Radio Sun Echoes Sun in Field of View Other radio frequency interference reported by cell phone tower operators during solar storms (Flares) Search and Rescue Frequencies report radiofrequency interference in side lobes

48. IMAGE Far UV Oct 29 2003

49. Power Distribution Concerns • Power companies in North America experienced some problems. • Electrical companies took considerable effort to prepare and be aware. • Impacts and actions reported: • Less use and switching between systems; • High levels of neutral current observed at stations throughout the country; • Tripped capacitor in the northwest (known to be GIC susceptible); • Transformer heating in the east – precautions were implemented; • ‘Growling’ transformer that was backed down to help cool it down. • GIC impacts were more significant in • Northern Europe where heating in a nuclear plant transformer was reported and a power system failure occurred on October 30 in Malmo, Sweden resulting in blackout conditions. • South Africa where after-the-fact tests showed transformers exceeded maximum temperature and are being replaced

50. Summary Courtesy of Lou Lanzerotti