Eating differently FCRN workshop on changing what we eat

1. Eating differentlyFCRN workshop on changing what we eat Tara Garnett Food Climate Research Network www.fcrn.org.uk Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food 22-23 April 2014

2. Ag livelihoods 1.3bn • Climate – agriculture @15-20% world GHG Rural economies Land use change & deforestation: agriculture 35% ice free surface Biodiversity loss Economy & society Environment Soil, water & air pollution; salinity Food production & consumption Water extraction 70% irrigation-related Animal health & welfare Undernutrition (850 mill) & micronutrient deficiencies (2 bn) Ethics & society Health Food safety Culture & tradition Overnutrition (fat & energy dense) 1.4 bn Public acceptability & trust Food & the big picture: a convergence of concerns Feminisation of agriculture Energy use Food system 20-30% GHG emissions Post harvest employment – processing → vending UK food industry 7.3% GVA) Population growth: 9-10 bn peopleby 2050 Livestock feed: 40% global grains Zoonotic diseases Power, control, equality Models of development Chronic diseases: CHD, strokes, diabetes, cancers

3. Livestock & meat The convergence converges….

4. Livestock & meat Occupy 70% agricultural land (1/3 arable land) Consume 40% grains produced Emit 14.5% global GHG emissions Main driver of deforestation, biodiversity loss & land degradation Over 0.75bn poor livestock keepers Can recycle residues & utilise ‘leftover’ land 70% diseases zoonotic in origin Major source water pollution Meat, dairy & nutrition: protein & micronutrients – but saturated fats and energy Meat – culture, tradition, enjoyment Use 15%irrigation water Ethics: Animal rights, animal welfare

5. Present & possible future influences on food system Today Tomorrow Economic development Population growth Population ageing Urbanisation Changing cultural attitudes & expectations Weather & environmental variability Resource limitations & competition Cost of inputs Food prices China, India • All of today’s, but more acute • Plus…?? • Regulations: national & international - influencing carbon, land, inputs, consumption • Resource pricing land, water, fuel etc (incl PES and carbon pricing). • Resilience issues: environmental and climatic change, extremes and variability, absolute scarcity • Reputational issues: driven by NGOs, media, policy • Randoms: extreme weather, technological breakthroughs, cultural tipping points, wars

6. Evolving thinking on sustainable diets / sustainable & healthy diets

7. Within the context of broader narratives about the future of food What future do we want? “The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed” William Gibson

8. Narratives around meat – what do we want? Social, economic, commercial, political, biophysical influences Meat-excluding More technological More behavioural Meat-including

9. Advice on “sustainable” diets is not new 1971

10. But has proliferated rapidly….

11. Some more specific recommendations

12. Evolving policy.. embryonic initiatives, not always successful Netherlands Nordics Sweden UK

13. Industry advocacy

14. Huge research interest Biesbroek S et al. 2014, Reducing our environmental footprint and improving our health: greenhouse gas emission and land use of usual diet and mortality in EPIC-NL: a prospective cohort study. Environmental Health, 13:27   Saxe H (2014). The New Nordic Diet is an effective tool in environmental protection: it reduces the associated socioeconomic cost of diet, Am J ClinNutr doi:10.3945/ajcn.113.066746. Westhoeket al (2014). Food choices, health and environment: Effects of cutting Europe’s meat and dairy intake, Global Environmental Change Van Kernebeeket al (2014). The effect of nutritional quality on comparing environmental impacts of human diets, Journal of Cleaner Production xxx 1e-12 Pairottiet al( 2014) Energy consumption and GHG emission of the Mediterranean diet: a systemic assessment using a hybrid LCA-IO method. Journal of Cleaner Production xxx 1e10 Vanhamet al (2013). Potential water saving through changes in European diets Environment International 6145–56 Briggs et al 2013.  Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study, BMJ Open. Vieux et al (2013). High nutritional quality is not associated with low greenhouse gas  emissions in self-selected diets of French adults, Am J ClinNutr; 97: 569–83 Smith et al (2013), How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?. Global Change Biology, 19: 2285–2302. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12160 Aston et al (2012). Impact of a reduced red and processed meat dietary pattern on disease risks and greenhouse gas emissions in the UK: a modelling study. BMJ Open; 2 (5): e001072 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2012-001072 Stehfestet al (2009) Climate benefits of changing diet. Climatic Change, 95, 1–2. Frielet al (2009), Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gasemissions: food and agriculture The Lancet, 374: 2016–25.

15. Studies generally: Define sustainability in environmental terms (often just GHGs) Are rich-world focused Ignore wider socio-economic context Don’t consider other determinants of nutritional status Don’t consider non-nutritional health implications of food And so, with these (enormous) provisos, can we define

16. Good-enough/ interim /partialPrinciples of environmentally sustainable and nutritious diets? • Diversity – a wide variety of foods eaten • In energy balance • Based around: tubers and whole grains (but not rice); legumes; fruits and vegetables - field grown and robust • Meat eaten sparingly if at all - all animal parts consumed • Dairy products or fortified plant-substitutes eaten in moderation & other calcium-containing foods consumed • Unsalted seeds and nuts included • Some fish and aquatic products sourced from certified fisheries, although less frequently than Eatwell advises • Limited consumption of sugary and fatty sweets, chocolates, snacks and beverages • Tap water in preference to other beverages

17. Health & environment: an arranged marriage, not a love match

18. Making change happen

19. An amateur’s personal view on food and its meanings Nurture Entertainment Neurosis Pleasure Guilt Need Ritual Food Habit Satisfaction Socialglue Love Status Power Bribery Comfort Religioussignificance Time-pass

20. The meat issue. Why is it difficult? • Not an ‘on-off’ issue • Culturally embedded • Taste • Masculinity Rozin et al (2012). “Is Meat Male? A Quantitative Multimethod Framework to Establish Metaphoric Relationships.” Journal of Consumer Research, 39 (3): 629-643. DOI: 10.1086/664970; Rothberger H (2013). Real men don’t eat (vegetable) quiche: Masculinity and the justification of meat consumption. Psychology of Men & Masculinity, Vol 14(4), Oct 2013, 363-375. doi: 10.1037/a0030379 • Politicised & contested eg. animal rights & welfare • Different kinds of meat • Different ways of producing it • Multiple environmental & nutritional issues • The ‘less and better’ concept…BUT

21. (Loosely) adapted from Prime cuts, FEC/WWF-UK, 2013

22. Thinking about behaviour change / practice / consumption

23. Things that get said Academics : nutrition, environment, ag economics, international development AW, envt, health NGOs Food industry Think tanks

24. Ways of approaching the issue Influenced by: • Ideologies & values • Disciplinary training • Sectoral lens

27. A hypothetical example in a SM context

28. Thinking about interventions also need to bear in mind • Cross-transferability from other areas (eg. how far are successful interventions wrt drugs or driving applicable to food?) • Risk of perverse side effects

30. Workshop aims • What do we know? • What don’t we know? • Where do we know enough to justify action now? • Where is more understanding is needed? • What sort of research would help improve the evidence base needed for effective policy making? • Can we put all that in writing by the end of tomorrow?

31. Thank you www.fcrn.org.uk