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Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011

Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011. Estimates, Budget and Precepts 2012/2013 to 2016/2017 . Background. Medium Term Financial Strategy encourages a look beyond the next year to 2016/2017 Potential variability limits certainty 2012/2013 slightly riskier than the current year

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Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011

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  1. Members’ Seminar 24th November 2011 Estimates, Budget and Precepts 2012/2013 to 2016/2017 North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  2. Background • Medium Term Financial Strategy encourages a look beyond the next year to 2016/2017 • Potential variability limits certainty • 2012/2013 slightly riskier than the current year • Not nearly as risky as 2013/2014 and beyond North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  3. 2012/2013 Assumptions • Pay Award of between 0% and 2.5% • General Price Inflation of 0% • Zero Contribution From District Collection Funds • Marginal Increase in Taxbase • Freeze Grant of between Nil and £560,000 • Council Tax increase between 0% and 3.2% North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  4. Downward Pressure • Staff Cost Savings £843,000 • Non Staff Savings £691,000 • Income Generation £272,000 • Pensions Neutral North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  5. Upward Pressure • Committed Staff Costs £284,000 • Uncommitted Staff Costs £65,000 • Committed Growth Non Staff £969,000 • Capital Financing £213,000 • Income Reduction £103,000 • Contractual Inflation £148,000 North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  6. A Balanced Base Budget • Marginal Decrease in Base Service Requirement of 0.1% (£30,000) • 0.6% increase in Council Tax • Manage Reduction in Budget (£110,000) to achieve Zero Increase in Council Tax North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  7. 2013/14 – 2016/17 • 2% Pay p.a and 3% 2016/17 • 2% pa increase in Council Tax • Grant profile -8.5%, -5% (CLG) then +2%, +2% • General Non Staff Costs Pressures 3%p.a • Then Balanced 2012/13 Budget requires Savings of £3.47m North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  8. Variations on a Theme – No.1 • Assume Pay increase of 2.5% 2012/2013 • Increase Council Tax by 3.2% • Nil Freeze Grant • If Pay is 5% Increase Council Tax by 5.5% • A realistic Pay Assumption? (Summary) • 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £3.38m required North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  9. Variation No.2 • Assume Nil Pay Award 2012/13 • Budget for zero increase in Council Tax and claim Freeze Grant • 2013/2014 to 2016/17: Savings of £3.49m required North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  10. Variation No.3 • Assume Pay Award of 2.5% 2012/13 • Budget for zero increase in Council Tax • Claim Freeze Grant which covers 2.5% Pay Increase (c £500,000) • 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £4.0m required North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  11. Variation No.4 • As V3 but Use Reserves in lieu of Savings • Current Forecast £5.8m • Gone by 2015/2016 • Council Tax increase of 19% in 2015/16 North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  12. Variation No.5 • As V3 but let Council Tax take the Strain • 12/13 - 3.2% • 13/14 - 10.3% • 14/15 - 6.0% • 15/16 - 4.3% • 16/17 - 2.7% • Practical? A lost referendum would add 5.2% North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  13. Variation No.6 • V4 and V5 Clearly Imprudent • so it could be all about timing and • Realism of assumptions (CPI of 2%?) • So..Council Tax Freeze 2012/013 • Use Some Reserves (£0.5m) • 3% pa Council Tax after 2012/2013 • 2013/14 to 2016/17:Savings of £3.2m required (Show Summary) North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  14. Strategy/Options • Still Much to be Determined • Manageable in 2012/2013 but cashflow of future reductions needs to be considered • No Apparent Incentive to Increase Council Tax for 2012/2013 • “Acceptable” Level of Council Tax increase 2013/2014? • Plan for V3, Settle for V6 North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

  15. Strategy/Options • Compliance – Need to Do? • Cost Control • Rationalisation • General Savings and Efficiency Drives • Reserves and/or Council Tax North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

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