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Changing East Asia and the U.S.

Changing East Asia and the U.S. What/where is East Asia?. China Japan South Korea North Korea Taiwan Hong Kong -Geographical proximity - Historical/cultural connectedness. Important Trends. Shifting balance of economic and military power in Asia—rise of China

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Changing East Asia and the U.S.

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  1. Changing East Asia and the U.S.

  2. What/where is East Asia? • China • Japan • South Korea • North Korea • Taiwan • Hong Kong -Geographical proximity - Historical/cultural connectedness

  3. Important Trends • Shifting balance of economic and military power in Asia—rise of China • Growing intra-regional/Asian trade • Shifting concerns and strategic interests for Asian countries and the U.S.

  4. Three terms to understand China • Developmental state 2. Rapid, global industrialization 3. Hegemony

  5. China’s Developmental State • IDEOLOGY: rapid economic development on behalf of society (follow examples of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) • LEGITIMACY: based on success of economic development and nationalism • UNITY: prevent domestic disruption e.g. ethno-nationalist aspirations of Tibetans or Uighers in Xinjiang • POINT: China’s government will keep promoting this ideology and its policies to protect itself

  6. Rapid Global Industrialization →Manufacturing Center of the World (still) - #1 producer of coal, steel and cement - produces 70% of the world’s toys • #1 producer of electronic goods • 3rdlargest producer of autos • 400 of the top 500 companies operate in China • Leads the world in ship building

  7. Growing Center of Technology Development & Production • U.S. companies and universities establishing research centers in China • Growing Chinese research presence with nanotechnology, gene technology • Alternative energy—largest producer of wind turbines

  8. Domestic Impact of China’s Industrialization • Growing middle class, about 150 million (US$10-20/day); huge reduction of poverty • Growing domestic market • Huge migrant labor pool • Rapid urbanization: about 50% in 2020 • Growing income and wealth gap • Enormous water, air, soil pollution • Fake products • Developing capitalist “can do” culture

  9. Modernization/urbanization

  10. Rural Poverty, Pollution, Scandal

  11. Chinese Nationalism & Pride

  12. International/Regional Impact of China’s Industrialization • 2nd largest economy in the world, will surpass the U.S. economy in 2019-2020 • China’s GDP :10.09 T (PPP, 2010, CIA) [GDP/capita? $7,900] • US GDP: 14.66T (PPP, 2010, CIA) [GDP/capita: $48,000] • 2nd largest exporter in the world • 2nd largest trade partner with the U.S. • Represents 14% of world’s economy (PPP) • Holds nearly 2.8 trillion in foreign currency (2010) • China’s proposal: Asian economic integration EAFTA + Japan, South Korea + ASEAN

  13. China and the Carolinas • High-tech textiles to China • Lenovo Group in Research Triangle & Morrisville • Production of Haierin South Carolina (Haier is the largest appliance manufacturer in the world)

  14. Issues and Constraints • Resource needs and costs • Economic slowdown—impact of interdependence • Inflation • Housing bubble and banking woes • Population growth • Political challenges: • Human rights: peasants, ethnic groups, workers • Corruption • Thousands of demonstrations each year

  15. China’s Energy and Resource Challenge • China is #2 in oil consumption • By 2020 China will import 70% of its oil needs (now 50%) • Coal provides 70% of energy • Number of autos in China expected to increase 5-fold

  16. China’s “Charm Offensive” • to get resources and political support: • Offer “alternative” to the U.S. human rights approach • Provide investment without “strings” • Build physical infrastructure and schools • Promote cultural knowledge and exchanges • Example: deal with Kazakhstan (holds 3%of world’s oil reserves)

  17. “Outreach” to Oil Producers

  18. China’s Population & Workforce Challenge • China’s population will peak in 2030 and begin to decline • China’s rapid aging population problem • 2010 Census: people aged 60 or more = 13.3% of the total population [U.S. 65 or older = 12.9% of population] • 2050: aged population = 1/3 of population • Aged population greatest in rural areas • “4-2-1” phenomenon: one child supporting 2 parents and 4 grandparents • Increased need for medical care; decline of workers

  19. Human Rights • Increased personal freedom, up to a point • Crackdown on any attempts of autonomy • Arrest of any opposition or political critics

  20. Rising Hegemony? • Hegemony = economic, political, ideological and cultural power of a state in the world system • Historically China has not been expansionist BUT it was the CENTER (中国) of an Asian tributary system • Hegemons do not recognize their rise or decline • Key to hegemony is economic power followed by military power • Hegemons try to change the “rules” of the world system in their favor: economic, political, cultural

  21. China’s Military Challenge • 3rd largest nuclear power • largest conventional army & modernizing • Modernizing airforce—J20 • Building an aircraft carrier—blue water navy capability in the Pacific • Naval bases in Indian Ocean • Military spending? • Big increase 2008-2010 • 2011 Official: US$91.5 B

  22. South China Sea Issues • Spratly Islands—oil and territorial control • Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia lay claim to the islands • Recent Vietnamese military exercises & China’s response

  23. East China Sea Issues • Diaoyutai or Senkaku Islands • Small, uninhabited islands • Contested by Japan, Taiwan and Mainland China; historical animosity b/t Japan and China • Possible oil nearby

  24. China’s Challenge to the U.S. • Intellectual property rights & industrial espionage • Cyber warfare • China’s military in the Pacific—how to maintain U.S. superiority? Japan’s role? • China’s relationship to non-democratic states & Russia • the RMB exchange and role in global finance? • Future educational challenge? Engineers? • Transfer of Taiwan to mainland China

  25. Japan’s Troubles • Domestic problems • lack of a dynamic economy • lack of effective leadership • spiraling social costs of an aging society • Rising nationalism and threat of militarization • nuclear power and energy needs • Regional challenges • China’s growing military power • Control of Senkaku islands • North Korea • Economic interdependence with China

  26. North Korea: Stalemate and Tensions What NK wants? South Korea Booming economy Strong military w/ help of U.S. President Lee Myung-bak willing to talk with NK but NK needs to: Admit its attacks on SK Cease any future attacks • Peace treaty with South Korea and U.S. • Diplomatic recognition by the U.S. • Economic aid • Keep its ties to China • Ability to threaten SK without a major response • Return of defectors

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