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MENA Regional Water Outlook Desalination Using Renewable Energy Overview of DLR work within the MENA Regional Water Outlook study Muscat, February 22-23, 2011. Presentation overview. Applied Methodology Desalination and renewable energy: The case of CSP

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  1. MENA Regional Water OutlookDesalination Using Renewable EnergyOverview of DLR work within the MENA Regional Water Outlook studyMuscat, February 22-23, 2011 2011/02/22

  2. Presentation overview • Applied Methodology • Desalination and renewable energy: The case of CSP • CSP and Desalination: Introduction and Preliminary Considerations • Description of Typical Plant Configurations • Results Overview • CSP Potential Assessment • Methodology • Results • The Scope of CSP in the MENA Region • Electricity Supply Scenario • Water Supply Scenario 2011/02/22

  3. MethodologyElectricity Supply Scenario • Special Focus on CSP! Electricity Demand Model Configuration of typical CSP power plants Electricity Supply Scenario for MENA Potential of other renewable energies in MENA CSP Potential in MENA Model Parameters - Replacement of old power plants - Maximum growth rates of renewable energy technologies - … 2011/02/22

  4. MethodologyWater Supply Scenario • Special Focus on CSP! Water Demand Model (by Future Water) Configuration of typical CSP + DES plants Water Supply Scenario for MENA Potential of other renewable energies in MENA CSP Potential in MENA Model Parameters - Replacement of old desalination plants - Maximum growth rates of renewable energy technologies - … 2011/02/22

  5. Desalination and renewable energy: The case of CSPCSP and Desalination: Introduction and Preliminary Considerations Massimo Moser, DLR 2011/02/22

  6. CSP Technology Overview www.dlr.de/desertec 2011/02/22

  7. Global Water Scarcity Source: IWMI 2006 2011/02/22

  8. Global Potential for Concentrating Solar Power Source: REACCESS 2009 2011/02/22

  9. Renewable energies for desalination: why CSP? Desalination plants require continuous operation • This conflicts with the intermittent nature of renewable energies • Storage of electricity is expensive • CSP offers the option of thermal energy storage • Hybrid operation is possible in the same power block (no “shadow power plant” required) 2011/02/22

  10. CSP Scheme 2011/02/22

  11. Methodology • Objective: preliminary analysis and comparison of different concentrating solar power and desalination plants  Base idea for the comparison: all plants are designed to produce the same amount of electricity and water (100,000 m3/d water – ca. 115 MW electricity) • Land requirement assessment (input for potential assessment) • Preliminary plant design and LEC calculation (input for Desalination model) 2011/02/22

  12. CSP - MED 2011/02/22

  13. CSP coast - RO 2011/02/22

  14. CSP inland - RO 2011/02/22

  15. Analyzed Configurations Desalination 100,000 m3/day Gross Power 110 – 120 MW Operation Base load (8,000 hours/y) Thermal Storage SM 2 (7.5 hours full load operation) Locations 1) Mediterranean Sea / Atlantic Ocean 2) Red Sea / Indian Ocean 3) Arabian Gulf Back-up fuel 1) Natural gas (NG): fuel factor 0.85 (Reference: crude oil price) 2) Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO): fuel factor 0.8 DNI 1) 2,000 kWh/m2/year coast site + 2,400 kWh/m2/year inland site 2) 2,400 kWh/m2/year coast site + 2,800 kWh/m2/year inland site 2011/02/22

  16. Results 1 – Investment Cost 2011/02/22

  17. Results 2 – Comparison of Configurations Assumptions: Location: Arabian Gulf; DNI: 2,400 kWh/m2/y; Fuel: NG 2011/02/22

  18. Desalination and renewable energy: The case of CSPCSP Potential AssessmentPrepared by Tobias Fichter, DLR 2011/02/22

  19. CSP Potential in MENAMethodology: • Land Resource Assessment • Solar Resource Assessment • CSP Potential • Statistical Evaluation 2011/02/22

  20. CSP Potential MENASolar Resource Assessment: • Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) is the energy resource for CSP power plants • DLR method models the optical transparency of the atmosphere to calculate the DNI • DNI data calculated for the year 2002 • spatial resolution: 30 arc seconds (~ 1 x 1 km) • DNI data calculated for all MENA countries except of Djibouti and Iran • For Djibouti data from NREL • For Iran data from NASA 2011/02/22

  21. CSP Potential in MENALand Ressource Assessment: • Definition of land exclusion criteria • Two Cases:- Total & Coast • Different land exclusion criteria for the cases • Main exclusion criteria categories:- Terrain- Land cover- Hydrology- Geomorphology- Protected areas - Infrastructure- Project related criteria 2011/02/22

  22. CSP Potential in MENALand Resource Assessment: • Creating of land exclusion layers with high spatial resolution (~1 x 1km) using geographic information systems (GIS) • Combining layers for total land exclusion map • Result:Suitable areas for CSP • Overlay Analysis 2011/02/22

  23. CSP Potential in MENACSP Potential Map • Combining data from solar resource assessment and land resource assessment • Results: Annual sum of DNI on areas which are suitable for CSP power plants 2011/02/22

  24. CSP Potential in MENAResults: • Detailed CSP potential maps for each country • Statistical evaluation for each country • Example: Oman (case Total) 2011/02/22

  25. CSP Potential in MENAResults: • Detailed near-shore CSP potential maps for each country • Statistical evaluation for each country • Example: Oman (case Coast) 2011/02/22

  26. Google Earth overlay for site assessment 2011/02/22

  27. CSP Potential in MENAInput for Electricity and Water Supply Scenarios • CSP potential for electricity generation of each MENA country 2011/02/22

  28. The Scope of CSP in the MENA RegionElectricity and Water Supply ScenariosFranz Trieb, DLR 2011/02/22

  29. Power Scenario Methodology • power demand from 2000 to 2050 • economic renewable energy potential for power generation • life cycle of old power plants opens opportunity for replacement • share of power technologies on firm capacity  125% availability • performance (load factor) of each technology • sustainable: secure, inexpensive, compatible • well balanced mix of fluctuating and storable sources • no technical break through required 2011/02/22

  30. Electricity Consumption of all MENA Countries start of scenario + 300 million people + economic growth + efficiency 2011/02/22

  31. Renewable Electricity Potential in Europe, Middle East & North Africa Solar (10-250) Geothermal (0-1) Biomass (0-1) Max Min Electricity Yield in GWh/km²/y Hydropower (0-50) Wind Energy (5-50) 2011/02/22

  32. Renewable Power Generation Potential by Sources in TWh/y Source: www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp 2011/02/22

  33. Criteria for Sustainable Electricity Supply: • Inexpensivelow electricity cost no long term subsidies • Secure diversified and redundant supply power on demand based on inexhaustible resources available or at least visible technology capacities expandable in time • Compatible low pollution climate protection low risks for health and environment fair access 2011/02/22

  34. Portfolio of Energy Sources for Electricity: • Coal, Lignite • Oil, Gas • Nuclear Fission, Fusion • Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) • Geothermal Power (Hot Dry Rock) • Biomass • Hydropower • Wind Power • Photovoltaic • Wave / Tidal ideally stored primary energy storable primary energy fluctuating primary energy 2011/02/22

  35. Electricity Production of all MENA Countries by Sources 2011/02/22

  36. Installed Capacity in all MENA Countries by Sources 260 GW fluctuating! 2011/02/22

  37. CO2- Emissions from Power Generation by Sources 2011/02/22

  38. Why CSP for Power in MENA? • CSP provides balancing power on demand for base, medium or peak load • MENA has no potential for pump storage like Europe to compensate fluctuations from wind and PV • storable hydropower, biomass and geothermal are very limited in MENA • CSP potential in MENA is extremely large and domestic • CSP combines ideally with natural gas and fuel oil 2011/02/22

  39. Water Scenario Methodology • water demand from 2000 to 2050 • total and coastal CSP potential for desalination • life cycle of old desal plants opens opportunity for replacement • top priority for efficiency gains • second priority for reuse of waste water • third priority for sustainable surface and ground water extractions • fourth priority for existing and planned conventional desal plants • last priority for CSP desalination after 2015 • no priority for unsustainable water extractions 2011/02/22

  40. Average Climate Change 2011/02/22

  41. AQUA-CSP Scenario vs. MENA Water Outlook constant reduced per capita water for irrigation Source: www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp 2011/02/22

  42. 2011/02/22

  43. 2011/02/22

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  45. Results of Water Scenarios Coastal CSP Potential < SWD Demand 2050 CSP Potential < SWD Demand 2050 Coastal CSP Potential > SWD Demand 2050 2011/02/22

  46. 2011/02/22

  47. Why CSP for Water in MENA? • CSP potential is very large even at coastal sites • good seasonal correlation of availability and demand • most abundant in regions with highest water scarcity • base load for uninterrupted operation of desalination plants • solar powered pre-treatment replaces chemicals 2011/02/22

  48. Peak Load Cost B1 Medium Load Cost B2 Base Load Cost B3 0.35 Cost of CSP at DNI 2400 kWh / m ² / a 0.30 0.25 0.20 Electricity Cost ($2010 /kWh) 0.15 B 0.10 0.05 Average Cost without CSP 0.00 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Break Even with different load segments Year www.dlr.de/tt/csp-finance 2011/02/22

  49. Case 1: 100% Substitution in peak and medium load segment by CSP a b c 2011/02/22

  50. How to finance CSP • identify real structure of national power generation cost • calculate CSP cost and learning curve under local conditions • compare and identify evtl. break even points • offer PPA (and WPA) as required • call for offers on best quality and longevity for the capacity needed • provide national and international guarantee on PPA • connect PPA to loan period • transparent scheme, quick procedures 2011/02/22

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