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Climate Variability and Climate Change: Decision Making under Uncertainty

Climate Variability and Climate Change: Decision Making under Uncertainty. Gerrit Hoogenboom Director, AgWeatherNet & Professor of Agrometeorology Washington State University, USA. AgMIP –Pakistan Kickoff Workshop & International Seminar on Climate Change

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Climate Variability and Climate Change: Decision Making under Uncertainty

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  1. Climate Variability and Climate Change: Decision Making under Uncertainty Gerrit HoogenboomDirector, AgWeatherNet & Professor of Agrometeorology Washington State University, USA AgMIP–Pakistan Kickoff Workshop & International Seminar on Climate Change University of Agriculture Faisalabad, PakistanJune 4-6, 2013

  2. 4,000 km

  3. Winter Outlook Weather and Agriculture • Weather has an important impact on agriculture, both crop and animal production. • For dryland agriculture more than 90% of the variability in yield can be explained by weather conditions.

  4. Winter Outlook Climate and Weather • Does a farmer have options to modify or change his production system? • If so, what are these options? • Can weather and climate information play a role? • How do we provide this information?

  5. National Weather Service • Cooperative Weather Station Network • Volunteer data collection network • Limited set of data (temperature and rainfall) • Approximately 85 stations in Georgia • Long-term records • Data collected at Griffin Experiment Station since 1926

  6. Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network • First weather station was installed in 1991 • Air temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, solar radiation, soil moisture

  7. Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network

  8. www.Georgiaweather.net

  9. Winter Outlook Wind Machines & Frost

  10. Weather Data and Applications

  11. Climate in the southeastern USAWhy should farmers care?

  12. Climate Variability and Climate Change 2-3 months Inter-annual Decadal Climate Variability Several decades 50+ years Centuries Climate Change

  13. Changing Ocean Temperatures Impacts the climateacrossthe globe

  14. El Niño and La Niña • El Niño: above-average sea-surface temperatures that develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. • La Niña: cold phase

  15. Effects of El Niño Why are El Niño and La Niña important?

  16. Effects of La Niña Why are El Niño and La Niña important?

  17. El Niño, La Niña and Neutral Phases

  18. Climate in the southeastern USAWhy should farmers care?

  19. ENSO and Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus (TSWV) severity in peanut Deviation from mean severity (%) (a). Leaf symptoms of TSWV on peanut (b). Western Flower Thrips (vector) Field observations (188 fields, 5 seasons)

  20. Farmers and Climate: Why models? • Traditional agronomic approach: • Experimental trial and error • Systems Approach • Computer models • Experimental data • Understand  Predict Control & Manage • (H. Nix, 1983) •  Options for adaptive management and risk reduction

  21. Soil Conditions Weatherdata Model Crop Management Genetics Simulation Growth Development Yield

  22. Soil Conditions Weatherdata Model Crop Management Genetics Simulation Growth Development Yield Pollution Net Income Resource Use

  23. Linkage Between Data and Simulations • Model credibility and evaluation • Input data needs: • Weather and soil data • Crop Management • Specific crop and cultivar information • Economic data

  24. Observed and simulated soybean yield as a function of seasonal average rainfall (Georgia yield trials)

  25. Observed and simulated soybean yield as a function of average max temperature (Georgia yield trials)

  26. Spatial Data Alabama, Florida and Georgia • Three representative soil profiles for each county • Soil surface data • Soil horizons • Crop management options: • Crop selection • Variety selection • Planting date • Irrigated versus rainfed • Fertilizer applications • Prices and production costs

  27. Simulations: Cotton Yield Variety “DP555 BG/RR”9 planting dates, rainfed vs irrigated38 – 107 years of daily historical weather data

  28. El Niño La Niña

  29. Climate in the southeastern USAHow do farmers make decisions?

  30. Farmers and Climate Interviews • 38 farmers • 21 counties in GA • Semi-structured interviews - Risk management strategies - Access of weather & climate information

  31. Farmers and Climate Risk Reducing Options

  32. Farmers and Climate Risk Reducing Options Forecast Use: Irwin County Spring 2006 forecast for summer drought  widespread shift from long- to short-cycle peanut variety

  33. ElNiño Farmer Joe’s Questions La Niña

  34. Management Decisions • Crop selection • Variety selection • Planting dates • Acreage allocation • Irrigation • Pest management • Amount and type of crop insurance

  35. www.AgRoClimate.org

  36. Historical weather data (1900-2005) ENSO PhasesPlanting dates Soil typesSelect AL, FL, GAcounties Yield Total amount of irrigation No. of irrigationevents CSM-CROPGROPeanut Model Crop Simulations April 16, 23May 1, 8, 15, 22, 29June 5, 12

  37. Crop Simulations: Research Analysis Georgia

  38. Crop Simulations: AgroClimate Extension, Producers and Consultants

  39. AgroClimate Tools

  40. Extension Agents& Specialists Farmers/Growers Climate-based Management Options Needs for Specific Commodities Interaction & Participation Crop Models & Climate-based Tools Web-based DSSwww.AgroClimate.org Stand aloneDecision AidTools Forecasts,Climatology Climate in the Southeastern USA: How do farmers make decisions?

  41. Climate Change and Climate Variability The impact of climate change and climate variability on agricultural production and the potential for mitigation and adaptation • Future issues can only be studied with simulation models • “What-If” type of scenarios

  42. Agriculture and Climate ChangeImpact and AdaptationCamilla, Mitchell County, Georgia Maximum and Minimum Temperature Precipitation

  43. Maize Yield (kg/ha) Mitchell County, Georgia, USA4 varieties, 3 soils, rainfed and irrigated Long-term historical weather data

  44. Corn Yield (kg/ha) Agriculture and Climate ChangeMitchell County, Georgia, USA4 varieties, 3 soils, rainfed and irrigated GCM-Modified CSIROMK2, Scenario IS92a, 2010-2039 Historical weather

  45. Planning

  46. Agricultural Irrigation Water Demand forecast for 2011 to 2050 • University of Georgia (UGA) and the State of Georgia Environmental Protection Division • Purpose: • Prepare forecasts of irrigation water demand that meet the needs for the agricultural sector of the Georgia economy during the first half of this century.

  47. Model Evaluation DSSAT Version 4.5 Five cropping seasons: 2000-2004 Crop Management : UGA Extension Production Guidelines Field specific water use data: Agricultural Water Pumping (AWP) project

  48. Irrigation Depth for CornMitchell County

  49. Irrigation Water Amount by Crop

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