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The Likud’s Return to Power

The Likud’s Return to Power. By Doron Shultziner, Emory University. Likud’s Success Puzzle, 1977-2009 Likud won 7 out of 11 elections since 1977 Likud members held the position of Prime Minister for over 21 years 24 years counting Olmert Likud made a comeback in the 2009 elections

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The Likud’s Return to Power

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  1. The Likud’s Return to Power By Doron Shultziner, Emory University

  2. Likud’s Success Puzzle, 1977-2009 • Likud won 7 out of 11 elections since 1977 • Likud members held the position of Prime Minister for over 21 years • 24 years counting Olmert • Likud made a comeback in the 2009 elections • from 12 to 27 seats

  3. The 17th Knesset elections, 2006 Center 36 Left wing 34 Right wing 50 Balad 3 Gil 7 Kadima 29 Labor 19 Ra’am Ta’al 4 Meretz 5 Likud 12 Hadash 3 Israel our Home 11 National Union - NRP 9 Shas 12 Left & Center 70 Religious Bloc 27 UTJ 6

  4. The shift to the right in elections 2009 -8 +1 -8 +15 +4 Balad 3 Gil 7 Kadima 29 Labor 19 Ra’am Ta’al 4 Meretz 5 Likud 12 Hadash 3 Israel our Home 11 National Union - NRP 9 Shas 12 -4 Religious Bloc 27 UTJ 6

  5. The 18th Knesset elections, February 2009 Center 28 Left wing 27 Right wing 65 Balad 3 Kadima 28 Likud 27 Israel our Home 15 Ra’am Ta’al 4 Labor 13 HADASH 4 Meretz 3 National Union 4 NRP3 Shas 11 Left & Center 55 Religious Bloc 23 UTJ 5

  6. Netanyahu’s Coalition 2009 narrow right wing coalition 61 Balad 3 Kadima 28 Likud 27 Israel our Home 15 Ra’am Ta’al 4 HADASH 4 Labor 13 Meretz 3 National Union 4 NRP3 Shas 11 Religious Bloc 23 UTJ 5

  7. Possible Explanations General Factors Ideology Commitment to Pristine Ideology and pragmatism Greater Eretz Israel Iron Wall: emphasis on military power • Anti-establishment spirit • Attentive to marginalized groups • Economic policies: free market • Leadership and open elite • Corruption and Anti-corruption

  8. Israeli-Jewish Group Identity Unsympathetic or even hostile world (Siege Mentality); Israel is strong but vulnerable Self-determination; Security; Jewishness Constitutive Norms Social Purpose Relational Comparisons Cognitive Models Non-Jews; Hostile Arab neighbors Heuristics: use strong measures for security; preserve unity

  9. Tapping into Group Heuristics: The Likud’s Campaigns • Categorization and Stereotypes • Monopoly over security • Monopoly over patriotism • Jewish Tradition • Negative Stereotypes of Opponents • Smolani (Pinko or Liberal) • Pro-Concession • Pro-Palestinian • Weak on Security • Self-righteous • Unpatriotic • Tel-Aviv or Shenkin • Anti-religious • Latte and Sushi?

  10. Categorization and Stereotypes Elections 2009: Concessions; Divide Jerusalem; Pro-Palestinian; Restraint; Weak on Security; Tel Aviv Elections 2006: Smolmert; Kadima (forward) to the 67’ lines

  11. Campaigns • Emphasis on fear and sense of security • “Bibi will unite the people; together we will not be afraid” • “With Tzipi Livni and the Kadima clan, we will not survive” • “Tzipi Livni helped Hamas and Hezbollah get stronger and hurt us – she is not worthy” • Tzipi Livni is “selling us to the Palestinians” and “dangerous the security of Israel” • Patriotism and Unity: • “Vote Likud if you are a patriot” • Subtext: if you don’t vote Likud you are not a patriot • “Likud – we are strong standing united” • Likud jingle: “Only one can against all the Left”

  12. When do Likud campaigns succeed? • Violence leads to increased reliance on heuristics of force reliance and preservation of unity • Elections: 1988 (1st Intifada), 1996 (Hamas terrorism), 2001 & 2003 (height of 2nd Intifada) (Berrebi & Klor, APSR 102, 2008) • 1992, 1999, and 2006 perceived security was higher • What about the 2009 elections?

  13. Winograd Report Jan. 2008 Gaza Operation Dec. 2008 Tzipi Livni wins Kadima Primaries Aug. 2008 Second Lebanon War (July-August) 2006

  14. Likud’s Splinter Parties

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