Feedback from CEM Assessments: Individual Pupil Records & Predictions

1. Feedback from CEM Assessments: Individual Pupil Records & Predictions Belfast, March 6th 2013 Neil Defty Business & Development Manager CEM Neil@cem.dur.ac.uk

2. Baseline Assessment Data • To inform professional judgement • To start a conversation

3. USING BASELINE DATA FOR TEACHING AND LEARNING IF FEEDBACK DATA IS TO BE TRUSTED THEN PROBABLY: • The students understood the purpose of the assessments • And each student did their best at the time……. • As a year group, how able are they? • What strengths and weaknesses does the group have? • How did each student perform?

4. Bands, percentiles, standardised scores… 30 10 5 1 40 90 20 80 70 99 60 50 95 C B A D Standardised scores Percentiles: 25 75

5. Alis: year 12 students, two baseline profiles for the same school Nationally, 25% in each band

7. Band Profile Graph: all MidYIS cohort A school with a ‘completely average’ intake would have 25% of pupils within each band. Band D Band A Checking this graph each year will give you an immediate overview of your intake.

8. Band D Band A Band D Band A

10. On another day, with 95% certainty, the score of 100.6(+/- 1.1 x 2) • would not be higher than 100.6 + 2.2=102.8 • would not be lower than 100.6 – 2.2 =98.4

13. Individual Pupil Records (IPRs) (See www.cem.org/midyisiprbooklet for report: “Using MidYIS Individual Pupil Records to Inform Teaching and Learning”) • To start a conversation

16. INSIGHT Pupil IPR

17. IPRs in KS3 Levels NATIONAL AVERAGE

20. The code: j: reduces size k: infills m: inverts

21. “Predictions”

22. How is a ‘prediction’ generated? A* * ** *** ******************* A * ** *** ******************************** B * ** *** ********************************* *** ** * C * ** *** ************************************ *** ** * GRADE GRADE * ** *** ******************************** **** ** * * ** ***************************** *** ** * * ** *** ******************* ** * * * ** *********** ** * 50 100 150 BASELINE SCORE

23. 3 key points are: • The higher the baseline score the higher the final grade • Any one grade is achievable from a range of baseline scores • From any baseline score, a range of grades are possible

24. How is a ‘prediction’ generated? 50% on or above the trend line A* * ** *** ******************* Subject National trend line (regression line) A * ** *** ******************************** B * ** *** ********************************* *** ** * ‘PREDICTION’ (expected grade) C * ** *** ************************************ *** ** * GRADE GRADE * ** *** ******************************** **** ** * * ** ***************************** *** ** * * ** *** ******************* ** * * 50% on or below the trend line * ** *********** ** * BASELINE SCORE

26. ‘Predictions’…...are based on Average performance by similar pupils in past examinations The problem with the word ‘prediction’ is…? An alternative is ‘expected’ grade

27. Predictions 6.6 points = A/B Trend line 4 points = D

28. FACTORS THAT WILL INFLUENCE RELIABILITY OF PREDICTIONS: • Knowledge of student • Parental support/home life • Peer influences/social life • Student attitude, interest, language • Expectations of staff • Department/institution ethos • Resources • Quality of teaching and learning: pace of lessons • Understanding how children learn……… • And the reliability of the predictions......

29. Correlation = 1 Result

30. Correlation = 0 Correlation = 0.7

31. The graph below shows the middle 2/3 of some subject trend lines

32. Prediction/expected grade: 5.1 grade C Most likely grade

33. Not a label for life...just another piece of information • The Chances graphs show that, from almost any baseline score, students come up with almost any grade - - -there are just different probabilities for each grade depending on the baseline score. • In working with students these graphs are more useful than a single predicted or target grade • Chances graphs show what can be achieved: • By students of similar ability • By students with lower baseline scores

34. to place school at 75th percentile of value added results

36. Or insert own values and click Adjust

39. Prediction/expected grade: 6.4 grade A/B Most likely grade