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Market Technician’s Association Education Seminar 2005

May 2005. Market Technician’s Association Education Seminar 2005. Advanced CMT Topics Equities: Practical Applications/Presentation. Peter J. Martin, CMT V.P., Senior Technical Analyst Prudential Equity Group, LLC.

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Market Technician’s Association Education Seminar 2005

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  1. May 2005 Market Technician’s AssociationEducation Seminar 2005 Advanced CMT Topics Equities: Practical Applications/Presentation Peter J. Martin, CMT V.P., Senior Technical Analyst Prudential Equity Group, LLC. All important disclosures can be found at the end of this document in the section entitled “Additional Information” beginning on page 44.

  2. Market Averages: Near-Term Trends(Daily Bar Charts) 200-Day Moving Average 200-Day Moving Average The Nasdaq Composite failed to make a new high in early March creating a negative divergence. 200-Day Moving Average Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  3. Market Averages: Near-Term Trends (Daily Bar Charts) 200-Day Moving Average Holding just above long-term moving averages. 200-Day Moving Average Broke below its long-term moving average and is staying there. 200-Day Moving Average Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  4. Market Averages: Intermediate-Term Trends (Weekly Bar Charts) DJIA Breach of its cyclical bull trend with negative divergence. MACD Indicator S&P 500 Broke its 2-yearupward bias. MACD shows negative divergence. NASDAQ Composite Penetration of major uptrend MACD Indicator Source: Bloomberg L.P.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  5. Market Averages: Intermediate-Term Trends (Weekly Bar Charts) S&P 400 S&P 600 Russell 2000 Source: Bloomberg L.P..; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  6. Market Averages: Intermediate-Term Trends (Monthly Bar Charts) DJIA S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite Source: Bloomberg L.P..; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  7. Market Averages: Intermediate-Term Trends (Monthly Bar Charts) S&P 400 Outside month S&P 600 Russell 2000 Source: Bloomberg L.P..; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  8. Dow Theory(Line Charts-Closing Prices) Positive Divergence sets up eventual buy signal. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  9. A/D Line Comparisons Primary A/D Line Still Below MA 1-Year Low Intermediate-Term Low Source: Lowry’s Reports.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  10. Confirmed March price high Barely confirmed Source: Lowry’s Reports.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  11. Source: Dorsey, Wright & Associates; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  12. Source: Dorsey, Wright & Associates; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  13. (Cycle timing) Source: Lowry’s Reports.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  14. Intermarket Analysis: Fixed Income: Yield On The Ten-Year Treasuries Near-term softness in rates. Potential major bottom in rates. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  15. Intermarket Analysis: Commodities CRB Index Short-term correction underway 50-Day Moving Average Normal correction off top end of channel Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  16. Intermarket Analysis: CommoditiesCrude Oil Correction underway! Intermediate-term trend is still up… Higher prices still appears attainable to us. Upside objectives $61 and $67 Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  17. Intermarket Analysis: Commodities Gold Minor support at $423. Major trend is up! Secular Bull Move Major Base Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  18. Intermarket Analysis: CurrenciesUS Dollar Short-term action is rangebound $80-$85 Trend violation; More base building needed! It will likely take much more time to reverse this three downward bias… Three Important Lows Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  19. Style Strategy Large Cap Value Vs. Growth Russell 1000 Value Relative To Russell 1000 Growth Value outperforming over all time periods. Source: Reuters. ; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  20. Style Strategy Mid Cap Value Vs. Mid Cap Growth Russell Mid Cap Value Relative To Russell Mid Cap Growth New intermediate-term trend high. Uptrend of mid 2003 low continues. Its value over growth across all time periods. Source: Reuters. ; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  21. Style Strategy Small Cap Value Vs. Small Cap Growth Russell 2000 Value Relative to Russell 2000 Growth Short-term trend is positive. Intermediate-term trend is neutral Long-term still shows an upward bias. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  22. Style StrategyBy Capitalization (Large Cap Vs. Small Cap) Russell 1000 Relative to Russell 2000 Short-term uptrend now in place. Potential bias shift towards large-caps. More time required to see if trend violation is legitimate. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  23. Style StrategyBy Capitalization(Large Cap Vs. Mid Cap) Russell 1000 Relative to Russell Mid Cap Short-term transition towards large caps. Downtrends still in force. Mid outperforming large-caps on both an intermediate and long-term basis. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  24. Style StrategyBy Capitalization(Mid Cap Vs. Small Cap) Russell Mid Cap Relative to Russell 2000 Slight breach of short-term. Trend now neutral. Intermediate-term trend still favors mid-caps. Back and forth action leads to neutral condition on a long-term basis. Source: Reuters. ; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  25. Comparative Relative Strength: A Different Look Source: Bloomberg L.P. Martin

  26. S&P Sector Analysis Consumer Discretionary(Relative Vs. S&P 500)Weighting: S&P Actual 4/8/05—11.3%Technical Opinion: Market Weight Relative falling sharply. Intermediate-Term trend is now neutral. Absolute trend is also neutral. Long-term trend is now neutral. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  27. S&P Sector Analysis Consumer Staples(Relative Vs. S&P 500)Weighting: S&P Actual 4/8/05—10.4% Technical Opinion: Market Weight Uptrend, while erratic, is in place. Intermediate-term & long-term trends maintaining their neutral stance. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  28. S&P Sector Analysis Energy(Relative Vs. S&P 500)Weighting: S&P Actual 4/8/05—8.8% Technical Opinion: Overweight Both absolute & relative trends are consolidating recent sharp upside. Intermediate and long-term trends remain positive. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  29. S&P Sector Analysis Financials (Relative Vs. S&P 500) Weighting: S&P Actual 4/8/05—19.7% Technical Opinion: Underweight Relative strength in a short-term downtrend Intermediate downtrend now in force. Major shift in trend. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  30. S&P Sector Analysis Health Care(Relative Vs. S&P 500)Weighting: S&P Actual 4/8/05—13.2% Technical Opinion: Market Weight Short-term uptrend now in place. Breach of intermediate-term downtrend. Long-term trend is now neutral. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  31. S&P Sector Analysis Industrials (Relative Vs. S&P 500)Weighting: S&P Actual 4/8/05—11.9% Technical Opinion: Overweight Short-term trend is neutral. Intermediate-term relative strength trend is neutral. Absolute trend is also neutral. Longer-Term trend does still have an upward bias. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  32. S&P Sector AnalysisInformation Technology(Relative Vs. S&P 500)Weighting: S&P Actual 4/8/05—15.0% Technical Opinion: Underweight Short-term downtrend in place. Intermediate-term downtrend has been extended. Downtrend in place. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  33. S&P Sector Analysis Materials (Relative Vs. S&P 500)Weighting: S&P Actual 4/8/05—3.2% Technical Opinion: Overweight Short-term trend has transitioned to neutral. Intermediate and Long-term uptrends remain intact. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  34. S&P Sector Analysis Telecomm Services(Relative Vs. S&P 500)Weighting: S&P Actual 4/8/05—3.1% Technical Opinion: Market Weight Accelerated downtrend has been breached. Intermediate and long-term trends remain neutral. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  35. S&P Sector AnalysisUtilities(Relative Vs. S&P 500)Weighting: S&P Actual 4/8/05—3.3% Technical Opinion: Overweight All absolute & relative price trends remain positive. Source: Reuters.; Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  36. Prudential Equity Group’s Proprietary Technical Rankings Source: Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  37. Source: Bloomberg L.P. Martin

  38. S&P 500 Aerospace/Defense Group& Boeing Co. (BA) Source: Bloomberg L.P. Martin

  39. S&P 500 Air Freight & Logistics Group& FedEx Corp. (FDX) Source: Bloomberg L.P. Martin

  40. S&P 500 Property & Casualty Group&MBIA Inc. (MBI) Source: Bloomberg L.P. Martin

  41. S&P Groups That We Believe Are Investable Source: Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  42. S&P Groups That We Believe Are Avoidable Source: Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

  43. Breaks Of Major Uptrends/Tops Source: Prudential Equity Group, LLC. Martin

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