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ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate

ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate. Titike, Hussen , Prajeesh , and Suyash Targeted Training Activity ENSO and Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate ICTP 10 August 2012. Outline. Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models

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ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate

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  1. ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate Titike, Hussen, Prajeesh, and Suyash Targeted Training Activity ENSO and Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate ICTP 10 August 2012

  2. Outline Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models African climate in CMIP5-Models Performance of CMIP5-Models ENSO and SON Rainfall relation, EEA ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, Sahel ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, NEA

  3. Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models

  4. African climate in CMIP5-Models

  5. Climate cont …

  6. Climate cont …

  7. Annual Cycle of Rainfall (5- 16N, 30 – 40 E) (10 - 20N, 10W – 20E) NEA JJAS Sahel JJAS EEA SON (5S - 5N, 35 – 45 E)

  8. Interannual Variability (Sahel) (10 - 20N, 10W – 20E) (5 - 26N, 30 – 40E) ENA (5S - 5N, 35 – 45E) EEA

  9. Performance of CMIP5-Models Power Spectrum analysis for Nino3 Index CMIP5 Models

  10. correlation SONRainfall with Nino3 (EEA )

  11. correlation JJAS Rainfall with Nino3 (NEA )

  12. correlation JJAS Rainfall with Nino3 (Sahel )

  13. ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, NEA

  14. ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, Sahel

  15. JJAS Elnino Composite

  16. JJAS Lanina Composite

  17. ENSO and SONRainfall relation, EEA

  18. ENSO and SON Rainfall relation, EEA SON Elnino Composite

  19. SON Lanina Composite

  20. MPI-ESM-MR • HadGE2–ES • IPSL-CM5A - MR • GFDL–CM3 • CNRM • All the above models predict that the NINO 3.4 temperature, EEA precipitation and NEA precipitation would increase by the end of 21st century. However the models disagree over the projection for Sahel precipitation. Based on our assessment we found the following models better in representing climatology and showing ENSO-African monsoon relations.

  21. Thank You

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