Principles and components of urban disaster risk reduction

1. Principles and components of urban disaster risk reduction Session 2World Bank InstituteFouad Bendimerad, Ph.D., P.E

2. Evolution of disaster risk management FROM…. Product approach Exclusive science/ technical approach Risk assessment equals risk management Risk as uni-dimensional Risk as an agency-specific issue Risk as a sectoral issue ….  TO • Process approach • Inclusive participatory approach • Risk assessment is part of risk management • Risk as multi-dimensional • Risk as a whole-of-government issue • Risk as a whole-of-society issue Safe Cities

3. From response management to risk management • Shifting from response management to risk management requires: • An understanding of the risk faced by each community and each segment of society • An understanding of the factors of vulnerability of society and the built environment • A shift from reactive action to pro-active engagement • Cross-organizational and cross-agency communication and coordination • Communicating and planning with communities • A long term view anchored on sustainability Safe Cities

4. From disaster management to disaster risk reduction Disaster Risk Management takes place when and if: Integrated within the agenda of each function of the local government Coordinated and supported by the central government and governed by clear policies It incorporates the participation of the active agents of society Such integrated approach achieves disaster risk reduction through Systematic implementation Sustainability Progressive action Cumulative contribution Safe Cities

5. Cross-organizational integration Integration of disaster management within each local government function, in coordination with the central authorities and in partnership with the active agents of society. Central Authorities Civil Society Local Government Public Works Urban Planning CBO’s NGO’s Emergency Management Building and Construction Public Safety Social Services Financial Planning Education & Rec. Academia Business Media Safe Cities

6. Cross-organizational integration (cont.) • Each agency of the local government should be trusted with a disaster management obligation as part of its function. For example, • Urban Planning – Integration of risk factors in urban plans; long-term risk mitigation planning; • Building and Construction – Enforcement of building code; coordination with construction industry; • Public Works – Enforcement of building codes; special provisions for lifeline and infrastructure protection; continuity of essential services and post-emergency access • Social Services – Community outreach and capacity enhancement; victim needs; problem of the poor and under- privileged; stakeholders’ involvement Safe Cities

7. Cross-organizational integration (cont.) Coordination of disaster management activities should be centralized within one organization (e.g., civil protection), which will perform: Overall coordination and advocacy functions; Community participation functions; Coordination with central/provincial governments; And performance evaluation. If such a structure does not exist, it should be created. A high-level policy coordination committee representing all agencies and other stakeholders should provide oversight and develop a policy framework geared towards mitigation. Safe Cities

8. Integrated risk management components Preparedness and Awareness Response and Recovery Institution- Building Mitigation and Prevention Disaster Risk Assessment Provides the Parameters for… Integrated Disaster Risk Management Development of CommunityResilience Safe Cities

9. Integrated DRM components (cont.) IDRM should be managed as an integrated set of functions relatedto four basic components: Preparedness and Awareness Raising; Mitigation and Prevention (including financial protection); Response and recovery planning; Institutional building; The implementation of these components typically resides within multiple agencies of the local government Safe Cities

10. Mechanisms for implementation of IDRM Two mechanisms are required: Policy-setting by high-level inter-agency coordination committee Coordination and performance evaluation by a singleagency (e.g., civil protection) The design of IDRM action plans should be based on parameters provided by Disaster Risk Assessment. Safe Cities

11. Disaster risk assessment (“DRA”) Disaster Risk Assessment (DRA) is the first undertaking and an essential step in the disaster risk management process. • DRA consists of the task of quantifying the potential impacts of hazard events on buildings, infrastructure, population, and institutions. • DRA also includes the interpretation of impacts on the community, institutions and organizational processes, and on the available resources. Safe Cities

12. DRA – consequence analysis • An inter-disciplinary team representing the key functions of the local government should perform “consequence analysis” of risk analysis results to: • Interpret the impact on institutions and customers of key services; • To understand capacity and resource gaps; • To identify policy implications; • To get familiar with risk parameters and constraints. • Consequence analysis should include preparation of a communication strategy with the central government, representatives of civil society and general public. Safe Cities

13. Disaster risk assessment (cont.) • DRA enables government and communities to understand: • Potential human and material losses and their spatial and sectoral distributions • Impact on critical facilities and functions • Needs and gaps • Disaster “demand” versus the available “supply” • DRA is also an excellent tool for: • Communicating risk parameters to different stakeholders • Exchanging data and information • Forcing transparency Safe Cities

14. DRAtechniques • Scenario (or Deterministic) Analysis: • A potential event is defined to have happened today and its impact assessed for a defined spatial area. • Probabilistic Analysis: • All potential impacts are integrated and the impact corresponding to a specific return period is assessed (e.g., 1-in-100 years event). • Risk Indexing/Mapping: • Key indicators of risk are aggregated in order to set priorities. • Risk Matrix Analysis: • Several risks are put in a matrix to obtain a visual two-dimensional display of the “ranking” of the risk for a region. Safe Cities

15. DRA – illustration (earthquake scenario) 87 90 Demographic & Economy STRONGER CONSTRUCTION WEAKER CONSTRUCTION LOCAL SITE-SOIL SOURCE BUILDING WEIGHT LATERAL BUILDING FORCE MINOR MODERATE MAJOR SHAKING SHAKING SHAKING LATERAL BUILDING DISPLACEMENT COMPLETE NONE SLIGHT MODERATE EXTENSIVE SCENARIO MAGNITUDE ATTENUATION Estimate Ground Shaking/ Wind speed Results Report and Display MODULE 1 Exposure Database By Geo-Unit MODULE 2 Earthquake Scenario Definition MODULE 3 Physical Damage Loss of Functionality Ground Motion Ground Failure Safe Cities

16. DRA: scenario analysis The ability to estimate future losses from scenario earthquakes enables communities to anticipate the consequences of future disasters and to develop plans and strategies for reducing risk. Assessment: Scenario Analysis Buildings & Critical Facilities Industrial Facilities Lifelines &Transportation Social Losses Disaster Mitigation Disaster Mitigation Disaster Recovery Disaster Recovery Disaster Response Disaster Response Disaster Preparedness Disaster Preparedness Risk Transfer Safe Cities

17. DRA: “worst-case” scenario Different scenarios should be “simulated” to develop a comprehensive understanding of the potential impacts. Fault Rupture for assumed scenario Istanbul Max Scenario (M7.5) – Mean Damage Ratio by Sub-Province Safe Cities

18. Forest Fires Very High Frequency Floods High Draughts Epidemics Medium Technological Low Earthquakes Very Low Severity (Loss) Very Low Low Medium High Very High Risk mapping • A risk matrix provides a visual two-dimensional display of the “ranking” of the risk for a region as a function of severity and frequency. • It is a simple approach for setting priorities . Safe Cities

19. DRA as a communication tool • It can be used for: • Educating the community about risks and vulnerabilities. • Engaging stakeholders in rational discussion about risk parameters and options for disaster risk reduction. • Developing institutional knowledge. • Empowering individuals and communities. • Creating ownership mechanisms. Safe Cities