1 / 27

pwc

www.pwc.com. Transportation and Logistics 2030 New Hubs, New Spokes, New Industry Leaders? Key Findings for the Road Freight Industry. Dr Andrew Shaw Presentation to Road Freight Association 20 May 2013. Table of Contents. Section. Overview. Page. www.pwc.co.za. 1.

matana
Télécharger la présentation

pwc

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. www.pwc.com Transportation and Logistics 2030New Hubs, New Spokes, New Industry Leaders? Key Findings for the Road Freight Industry Dr Andrew Shaw Presentation to Road Freight Association 20 May 2013

  2. Table of Contents Section Overview Page

  3. www.pwc.co.za 1 Changes in global trade and logistics patterns Page 3

  4. 1990 distribution of world merchandise exports by exporting country/region Change in exports by region 2009 distribution of world exports by exporting country/region • North America’s and Japan’s decline in export market share is significantly greater than that of Europe, • Africa’s export share of global exports has increased by more than 50%, albeit from a low base, and • Developing Asia’s export share has increased three fold Source: PwC Economic Views, Future of World Trade – Top 25 sea and air freight routes (March 2011) Page 4

  5. Globalisation • Important sales and supply markets evolve in which emerging and least developed countries play a major role. • New transport corridors will emerge, especially between Asia and Africa, Asia and South America as well as intra-Asian.

  6. Top 25 bilateral trade pairs in 2009 (sea and air freight) Source: PwC Economic Views, Future of World Trade – Top 25 sea and air freight routes (March 2011)

  7. Top 25 bilateral trade pairs in 2030(sea and air freight) Source: PwC Economic Views, Future of World Trade – Top 25 sea and air freight routes (March 2011)

  8. China will dominate global trade in 2030, featuring in 17 of the top 25 bilateral sea and air freight trade routes. Source: PwC Economic Views, Future of World Trade – Top 25 sea and air freight routes (March 2011)

  9. Evolution of 2030’s largest bilateral pairs Evolution of the five fastest growing bilateral pairs Source: PwC Economic Views, Future of World Trade – Top 25 sea and air freight routes (March 2011) Page 9

  10. Trade between China and Africa Headline • Bilateral trade between China and Africa has risen from US$8bn to US$73bn in current prices between 2000 and 2009. Trade • Trade flow forecast to increase nearly eight times by 2030. • In 2010 the China State Construction Engineering Corp agreed a $23bn deal to build 3 refineries in Nigeria. China - Nigeria • Investments and agreements for natural resources have been struck across Africa, including those for oil in Sudan, Angola and Algeria, copper and agriculture agreements in Zambia and mining in South Africa. • China has also invested heavily in transport infrastructure (e.g. Kenya). Trade flows from China to Africa mainly consist of Chinese consumer goods. In the next twenty years the flows of merchandise exports between China and Africa is expected to be a key growth area for global trade. Infrastructure Source: PwC Economic Views, Future of World Trade – Top 25 sea and air freight routes (March 2011) Page 10

  11. www.pwc.co.za 2 Emerging economies driving growth Page 11

  12. The structure of ‘emerging’ economies differ substantially • China: by far the highest GDP, but relatively low per capita • GDP per capita seems to correlate with urbanisation rate • Only India has lower GDP per capita and urbanisation rate than China • Smaller economies show higher GDP per capita and urbanisation rate– Brazil– Mexico– Russia– Turkey • Urbanisation  facilitates centralised distribution strategies Source: PwC T&L 2030, Volume 3: Emerging Markets – New hubs, new spokes, new industry leaders? (Dec 2010)

  13. Logistics performance of ‘emerging’ economies • Logistics Performance Index (World Bank) summarises logistics performance of countries in six areas: – customs – infrastructure – international shipments – logistics competence – tracking & tracing – timeliness • China leads the group of seven (ranked 27th among 155 countries covered), mainly due to the high quality of transport infrastructure • South Africa (ranked 28th) leads in competence and quality of logistics services Source: PwC T&L 2030, Volume 3: Emerging Markets – New hubs, new spokes, new industry leaders? (Dec 2010)

  14. Territory insights – Seven routes to one goal: growth. Source: PwC T&L 2030, Volume 3: Emerging Markets – New hubs, new spokes, new industry leaders? (Dec 2010)

  15. Territory insights – key findings • Customs union ‘Mercosur’ – trigger for logistics activities • 2014 FIFA World Cup, 2016 Olympics – trigger for FDI and upgrading of transport infrastructure • Domestic demand for logistics services will grow strongly, relevance of FDI may decrease • CEP market promising double-digit growth • Opportunities for the private sector envisaged, following continued privatisation of T&L operations • Gradual policy reforms should encourage FDI in the T&L industry • Multinationals dominate the logistics demand • Growth in international trade will depend on the effectiveness of regulatory reforms • Special economic zones will stimulate trade flows between Asia, Europe and North America • The level of competition of multinational logistics service providers is expected to grow • Starting point of a new transport corridor to Asia; investments in transport infrastructure needed • Ports, railways, pipelines – public; road transport and logistics – private • Continued growth and new opportunities in 3PL and CEP • Wave of privatisation – ports first; highways, maritime operations, bridges, railways to follow Source: PwC T&L 2030, Volume 3: Emerging Markets – New hubs, new spokes, new industry leaders? (Dec 2010)

  16. 8 assertions about the future of emerging markets Regulation Consolidation Competition Transport corridors The establishment of free trade zones and resulting increases in foreign direct investment will lead to above-average growth of the transportation and logistics industry in emerging markets. Important sales and supply markets evolve in which emerging and least developed countries play a major role. New transport corridors will emerge, especially between Asia and Africa, Asia and South America as well as Intra-Asian. After a period of tremendous market growth and continuous market entrance of multinational LSPs, the T&L industry in emerging markets will face fierce competition followed by consolidation. LSPs from emerging markets will not gain significant market share in developed countries, even low-tech logistics solutions are not perceived as a viable route to win market share. The degree and pace of privatisation of state-owned T&L organisations will strongly differ among emerging markets; while governments in some cases become watchdogs, they are still the game makers in others. It’s all about money ─ the importance of barter trade diminishes. The T&L industry in emerging markets will increase its level of professionalism, partly driven by strong commitment, technology and know-how transfer of multinationals in their markets. LSP from developed countries will heavily engage in emerging markets, however emerging markets will not become the new centres of gravity in logistics as regards standard setting, innovation and technology transfer. Source: PwC T&L 2030, Volume 3: Emerging Markets – New hubs, new spokes, new industry leaders? (Dec 2010)

  17. The future for Logistics Service Providers • Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) from developed countries will heavily engage in emerging markets. Emerging markets will not become the new centres of gravity in logistics as regards standard setting, innovation and technology. Competition • Seven of twenty most important ports are located in China • Innovations, standard settings and headquarters will remain in developed countries representing the centres of gravity in logistics • Some emerging economies demonstrate low-tech low-costinnovative domestic logistics solutions • PwC (2010) Delphi panel: does not see a shift before 2030 World Port ranking in container traffic in 2008 Source: Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics •  LSPs from emerging markets should focus on their more attractive domestic markets and seize opportunities to enhance their service level and logistics capabilities.

  18. Percentage modal share for domestic freight (2007), as measured by ton kilometre Source: Source: McKinsey and PwC Research, Van Eeden & Havenga (2011), National Department of Transport South African Maritime Study (July 2011)

  19. www.pwc.co.za 3 China as an investment destination Page 19

  20. China remains the top investment destination China 56% Russia 19% US 34% Turkey 25% India 37% Mexico 26% Indonesia 12% Brazil 52% South Africa 11% Page 20 Source: PwC Choosing China: Insights from multinationals on the investment environment (2013)

  21. Areas global CEOs want China’s Government to focus on 53% 73% • Reducing intervention in the economy and allowing an increase in private competition • Improving government transparency and anti-corruption Page 21 Source: PwC Choosing China: Insights from multinationals on the investment environment (2013)

  22. China’s reform measures investors find attractive 48% 43% • Economic development driven by domestic demand  41% • Financial reform, steady liberalisation of foreign exchange controls and interest rate policy • Doubling residents’ per capita income by 2020 Page 22

  23. China could overtake US as world’s largest market in PPP terms by 2017 2017 2027 • China could overtake the US in PPP terms • China could overtakethe US in MER terms PPP: purchasing power parities MER: market exchange rates Source: World in 2050 -- The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities. Published by PwC, January 2013 Page 23 Source: PwC Choosing China: Insights from multinationals on the investment environment (2013)

  24. Parts of the value chain carried out in China by German companies Source: PwC Logistics in China: An All-inclusive Market? (Jan 2012) Page 24

  25. Level of development of logistics services providers in China 12% Of PwC survey participants only 12% rated logistics providers’ in China average level of development as “high” Page 25 Source: PwC Logistics in China: An All-inclusive Market? (Jan 2012)

  26. www.pwc.co.za 4 Outlook Page 26

  27. Outlook – • Growth in China will continue to dominate world trade: • China will continue to be an attractive investment location • Largest growth in trade lanes will be between China and other emerging economies • The practices of logistics service providers in China will lag those of the developed world • Africa, with Nigeria and SA in the lead, will build closer trade links to China • Logistics performance in South Africa is ahead of many emerging economies • A period of growth in the logistics industry to support rapid changes in trade patterns and growth in emerging economies is likely to be followed by a period of consolidation

More Related