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China Rise, Xi Jinping, Dynamics of Great Powers Competition

China Rise, Xi Jinping, Dynamics of Great Powers Competition. IIRE – November 26, 2018. Introduction. China Rise: central factor in reshaping world geopolitics An uncertain future Toward a radical change in the world order? Today: « Chinese factor » has already implications in all fields.

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China Rise, Xi Jinping, Dynamics of Great Powers Competition

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  1. China Rise, Xi Jinping, Dynamics of Great Powers Competition IIRE – November 26, 2018

  2. Introduction • China Rise: central factor in reshaping world geopolitics • An uncertain future • Toward a radical change in the world order? • Today: « Chinese factor » has already implications in all fields

  3. Xi Jinping’s China • From Mao to Xi: bureaucratisation as a process, bureaucratic counterrevolution as a precondition to the bourgeois counterrevolution • A very specific form of bureuacratic and state (lead) capitalism and social formation • Xi Jinping’s rule: a new political regime in capitalist China • Xi’s ambition: China’s century, a global alternative model to the West • The Achilles Heal: the limits of absolutism • Lead economy in a neoliberal world market and the social elite

  4. The military expansion • Imperialism cannot be only economic • A new military doctrine: centrality of the blue-water navy • Arm race: advanced weapons and cyber capacities • 317 warships and submarines in active service, outnumbering the 283 of the U.S. navy • Chinese army’s weaknesses and the alliance with Russia • Pentagon worries • The renamed US Indo-Pacific Command: 60% of the US Navy

  5. The war fleet

  6. Dépenses militaires

  7. Budgets militaires Russie / Chine / US

  8. Modernized blue-water navy .

  9. Asia

  10. North-East Asia

  11. OBOR strategic « corridors »

  12. Economic expansion • First phase of OBOR: a multifunctional program. Pilar: infrastructure • Control of communication lanes, of resources, industrial investments… • In and out financial institutions (IMF, AIIB) • The politics of loans (worldwide) (Latin America) • Old forms of colonialism: debt and concessions (i. e. Sri Lanka, Hambantota Port) (Nicaragua) • Problems: economic rentability, political backlash (Malaysia) • Ongoing reevaluations: future of OBOR? But economic expansion continues

  13. US counteroffensive – Economic war • A very serious conflict on all fronts • Customs duties and foreign investment in China • Currency war • Technology war • Chinese attraction • Chinese debts?

  14. Where are we going ? • US: the price of Obama paralysis and of Trump unilateralism • Whatever, China’s impact: Interpol, biodiversity, WHO… • The China-US conflict, the last nail on the climate coffin (te cost of « advanced » technologies) • The latest shift: beyond competing influences – Chose your camp! (APEC crisis) • Can it mean the end of globalisation?

  15. Resistance and faction fights • The social struggles in China: widespread, on many fields • Organizing? The two impossibilities • Factional struggles and the CCP (Jasic) • The hope in a better economic future (one child choice) • When the crisis will come?

  16. Solidarity and internationalism • A new internationalism for a new world • Against « campism » • Existing international solidarity with Chinese workers' rights • Solidarity with Hong Kong progressists

  17. Le pont HK-Chine continentale

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