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KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE

Study on Container Throughput Forecasting for Shipping and Port Development Strategies in the APEC Region. KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE. CONTENTS. Korea Maritime Institute. CHANGES IN MARITIME ENVIRONMENT NEEDS FOR THE STRTEGIES OBJECTIVES METHODOLOGY SCHEDULE AND BUDGET.

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KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE

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  1. Study on Container Throughput Forecasting for Shipping and Port Development Strategies in the APEC Region KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE

  2. CONTENTS Korea Maritime Institute • CHANGES IN MARITIME ENVIRONMENT • NEEDS FOR THE STRTEGIES • OBJECTIVES • METHODOLOGY • SCHEDULE AND BUDGET

  3. Changes in Global Economy Korea Maritime Institute GLOBALIZATION WTO REGIME (ECONOMIC LIBERALISM) ECONOMIC BLOC (FTA) TRADE VOLUME INCREASE

  4. CONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUT Korea Maritime Institute

  5. CHANGES IN CONTAINER SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT Korea Maritime Institute • CHANGE CLIENT DEMANDS • ALLIANCE, M&A • INCREASING CONCENTRATION • EMERGENCE OF BIG SHIP

  6. CHANGES IN CONTAINER PORT Korea Maritime Institute • CARRIER DIRVEN PORT DEVELOPMENT • PRIVATIZATION • MEGA HUB PORT • INTERNATIONAL PORT OPERATOR • ENVRONMENTAL PRESSURE

  7. ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF APEC REGION Korea Maritime Institute • POPULATION: 2.5 billion (42.2% OF WORLD) • GDP: US$ 18 trillion (in 2000) • TRADE: 46.76% OF GLOBAL TRADE (in 2000) • TOP 5 WORLD CONTAINER PORTS (IN 2001) : HK, SINGAPORE, BUSAN, KAOHSIUNG, SHANGHAI • CONT. PORT THRUPUT: 139 m TEU (in 2000) : 61.5% of WORLD TOTAL

  8. NEED FOR STRATEGIES FOR PORT DEVELOPMENT AND SHIPPING NETWORK Korea Maritime Institute • PORT DEVELOPMENT : HUGE AND LONG-TERM INVESTMENT • CARGO FORECATING - DEVELOPING COUNTIRES: NO FORECATING - DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: OVER FORECATING • SHIPPING REQUIREMENT IN THE REGION

  9. OBJECTIVES OF STUDY Korea Maritime Institute • PROVIDING MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT • FORMULATING POLICY GUIDELINES FOR REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING • ACCESSING THE IMPACT OF THE CHANGES IN MARITITME ENVIRONMENT

  10. METHODOLOGY Korea Maritime Institute • COLLECTING BASE DATA - CIY DATA - SURVEY TO PORT AUTHORITIES • TOOL: UPGARDED MPPM • COUTRY LEVEL SEMINARS

  11. UN/ESCAP Maritime Policy Planning Model (MPPM) Korea Maritime Institute • DEVELOPED IN 1992 • 3 SUB-REGION STUDIES : ASEAN(1992), SOUTH ASIA(1993), EAST ASIA(1994) • 1 INTRA REGIONAL STUDY (1997) • REGIONAL SHIPPING AND PORT DEVELOPMENT STUDY (2001)

  12. MODULES OF MPPM Korea Maritime Institute TRADE MODULE FORECAST TRADE FLOW ON COUNTY TO COUNTRY BASE PORT ASSIGNMENT MODULE COUNTY TO COUNTRY TRADE FLOW TO PORT TO PORT FLOW LINER SHIPPING NETWORK MODULE ALLOCATE TRADE FLOW TO SHIPPING ROUTE

  13. UPGRADE MPPM Korea Maritime Institute • ORIGINAL MPPM - BASED ON DOS SYSTEM - RESTRICTED NUMBER OF PORT AND T/S HUB - DIFFICULT TO USE • UPGRADED MPPM - WINDOW VERSION - USER FRIENDLINESS - POSSIBLE INLAND TRASPORTATION SYSTEM EXPANSION • KOREAN GOV’T FINANCES MODEL UPGRADE

  14. POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES Korea Maritime Institute • PORT PLANNER/GOVERNMENT FOMULATING REALISTIC STRATEGIES IN DEVELOPING PORT FACILITIES AND HUB-PORT • SHIPOWNER SHIPPING ROUTE DECISION, SHIPPING CAPACITY INVESTMENT • SHIPPER EFFICIENT SHIPPING NETWORK

  15. STUDY OUTPUT Korea Maritime Institute • REGIONAL MARITIME STRATEGY PLANNING PUBLICATION INCLUDING CONTAINER FLOW PROJECTIONS, INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT AND POLICY ACTION GUIDELINES • REPORT OF STUDY FINDINGS AND PROCEDINGS OF THE COUNTRY-LEVEL SEMINARS

  16. PROJECT STAGES AND SCHEDULE Korea Maritime Institute

  17. PROJECT BUDGET Korea Maritime Institute (IN US$) UN/ESCAP WILL PROVIDE THE SOURCE OF MPPM AND THE GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF KOREA WILL UPGARDE THE MPPM AT THE COST OF US$100,000 THIS YEAR.

  18. THANK YOU VERY MUCH KOREA MARITIME INSTITUTE

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