1 / 8

Predicting NFL Team Performance, a Closer Look at Fantasy Football

Predicting NFL Team Performance, a Closer Look at Fantasy Football. ECE 539 Presented: 12/14/2010 Joseph Quigley. Objective. Train a multi-layer perceptron network to predict the regular season records of NFL Football teams. (Within a range.) Wins in a season: 0-3 4-8 9-12 13-16.

melvin-gray
Télécharger la présentation

Predicting NFL Team Performance, a Closer Look at Fantasy Football

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Predicting NFL Team Performance, a Closer Look at Fantasy Football ECE 539 Presented: 12/14/2010 Joseph Quigley

  2. Objective • Train a multi-layer perceptron network to predict the regular season records of NFL Football teams. (Within a range.) • Wins in a season: • 0-3 • 4-8 • 9-12 • 13-16

  3. Purpose • Creates a simple way to turn projected fantasy football statistics into projected wins and losses. • To have the ability to create hypothetical teams and estimate how many games they would win in a season. • What if the 2008 Lions (winless) went back in time and traded defenses with the 2000 Ravens (one of the best defenses in recent history)? • What if the 2007 Patriots (only 16-0 team ever) traded defenses with the 2006 Redskins (one of the worst defenses in recent memory, and in the last 10 years of fantasy football)?

  4. Data • Fantasy Football statistics (2005-2010): • Quarterback • Running back • Wide Receiver • Tight End • Kicker • Defense/Special Teams • Team Vector

  5. What-if Analysis • Can’t just add another teams fantasy defense/ST value. • Needed to modify offensive production based on turnovers. • Calculated number of offensive possessions in a season, then the fraction of fantasy points per possession. • Multiplied this by the difference in turnovers between the new and the old defense.

  6. Preliminary What-if results: • 2008 Lions/2000 Ravens – Win: 6.6-9.6 games • 2008 Lions/2000 Broncos – Win: 7.4-10.4 games • 2007 Patriots/2006 Redskins – Win: 6.4-9.6 games.

  7. Predicting the 2010-2011 Season

  8. Questions?

More Related