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Climate Change Post Mortem 2014

Climate Change Post Mortem 2014. David Henderson. Copenhagen - Outcome. Political treaty with goal of 2 deg C limit Each country sets own targets No enforcement Green Fund to help LDC’s $30 billion in 2012 rising to $100 billion Accounting and Strong Transparency. Why did Copenhagen Fail.

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Climate Change Post Mortem 2014

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  1. Climate ChangePost Mortem2014 David Henderson

  2. Copenhagen - Outcome • Political treaty with goal of 2 deg C limit • Each country sets own targets • No enforcement • Green Fund to help LDC’s • $30 billion in 2012 rising to $100 billion • Accounting and Strong Transparency

  3. Why did Copenhagen Fail • BASIC group and US didn’t really want a stronger treaty • Disarray in the Danish leadership • Sacked the person with best connections 2 weeks before the conference • PM didn’t know issues • EU Politics • Cold Weather in Copenhagen • http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8426835.stm

  4. How are we Doing? • 2010 saw 6% rise in greenhouse gases • China & India 8% increase in coal burning • US emissions up • 2011 Emissions up 3.2% overall • China up 9.3% but CO2 per $GDP declined • US dropped 1.7% from 2010 • US dropped 7.7% since 2006 (recession+ more natural gas replacing coal) David Henderson 2011

  5. 2012 How are we Doing? • Actual emissions worse that IPCC worst case scenario • IPCC appears too conservative on estimates • Kyoto signers met 2012 targets • US rapidly replacing coal with natural gas David Henderson 2011

  6. Show me the $$ • $30 Billion commitment not fully met • Much comes from ‘old’ money already committed rather than adding new money.

  7. Durban Meeting 2012 • 2015 deadline for review of progress • EU led by England formed coalition with LDC’s to split them from China • Voluntary Reductions till 2020 • Then Legally Binding Treaty

  8. Adaptation • 2 degree or more warming probable • Present CO2 above 400 ppm • Need to address mitigation • How do communities and nations adapt • What are financial responsibilities • Developed Nations that caused the problem • Insurance Issues in ALL countries

  9. Fairness?

  10. Fairness? • 1 Trillion Tonnes total emissions FOREVER • Over half way there now • http://trillionthtonne.org/

  11. Mora et al Nature 2013 • By 2047, the averge temperatures will be hotter than anything you have experienced in the past 150 years. • Tropics get there by 2030 • Aggressive action pushes this 20 farther into the future.

  12. Things We Know for Certain • Humans are causing a increase in CO2 • CO2 is a GHG and increases Global Temperature • No one can predict where this is going • If we mess things up, it will take 1000 years to fix it

  13. Limits of Models • Assume linear behavior • Atmospheric circulation • Thermo-haline ocean circulation • Gulf Stream in Atlantic • Role of Clouds not known • Collapse of Polar Vortex 2011 Winter • Historic collapse of Gulf Stream • Drastic shifts in Paleoclimate Record

  14. Thermohaline circulation

  15. Where are the Uncertainties? • Did CO2 Rise before or after Temperature • End of Last Ice Age • Nature Sept 30, 2012 – CO2 First • What will be the effect of Clouds? • Some cool earth • Some warm earth • More moisture means more clouds

  16. Fracking – The End of Coal? • Natural gas has replaced 35% of coal in electricity generation in the US • Large reserves in Europe and China • Direct conversion 50% reduction in GHG • New Gas turbine plants 70% • Combined Heat and Power 95%

  17. Fracking – The End of Coal? • But Leaking Methane cancels some? of the advantage • EPA Rules capture this and save money if adopted • Study in Texas found very low leakage • Second study found very high leaakage • Fracking fluid pollutes land and water

  18. The Bottom Line • “Need to reduce fossil fuel use by 90%” • Barney Ellison, Prof. chemistry, U. Colorado • Parallel with Acid Rain in Europe • Started arguing over 20-30% reductions • Science finally settled on 90% • 40 year process to reach goal

  19. Progress in 2014 • US-EPA 30% Reduction from Coal • 2005 baseline was high point • Only 16% more by 2030 • Doesn’t meet Obama’s Copenhagen Commitment • China New Emission and Efficiency Law • Reduction in Coal • Predict no more growth in coal by 2025

  20. A Ray of Hope • Science Vol 335, pp. 183-188 2012 • Analysis that is already moving into policy

  21. Alternate Approaches to Mitigation • Reduce Methane Emissions • Coal mining • Oil and gas production • Cattle farming • Rice growing • Methane leads to Ozone production • Crop loss • Respiratory problems

  22. Alternate Approaches to Mitigation • Reduce Carbon Particulate • Cooking fires • Burning biomass • Diesel exhaust • Carbon leads to Climate Warming • Some debate about how much • Respiratory problems – Asthma

  23. Alternate Approaches to Mitigation • Costs and Benefits • Reduce global temperature by 0.5 oC 2050 • Prevent 0.7- 4.7 million deaths/year • Increase crop yield 30-135 million metric tons per year in 2030 and beyond • Benefits 3-20 times costs • Science Vol 335, pp. 183-188 2012

  24. Alternate Approaches to Mitigation • Costs and Benefits • Benefits to same countries paying costs • Food Production • Science Vol 335, p. 183 2012

  25. Alternate Approaches to Mitigation • Costs and Benefits • Benefits to same countries paying costs • Deaths Avoided • Science Vol 335, p. 188 2012

  26. Western Fuels Argument • Plants do grow better in high CO2 • But – Only with enough nutrients • High CO2 Plants are not as nutritious • Animals need to eat more of them to live • NC Study Insects starve on them – get full before get sufficient nutrition

  27. CO2 440 ppm • C4 Plants- Recent evolution • Less water lost through leaves • Corn, crabgrass • C3 Plants – Most plants • Require more water • Need lower temperatures • Wheat, Barley, Rice, Sugar Beets

  28. Effects of Global Warming Virtually Certain • Stratospheric Cooling • Ozone Layer Depletion • Changes in Jet Stream • Shifts in weather patterns • Loss of Arctic Polar Vortex 2011

  29. Effects Here Now • Vermont and New Hampshire • 40% increase in precipitation • 20% decrease in soil moisture • Alaska – 9 deg F temp increase in 1990’s • Permafrost melting • Trees and electric poles fall over • Roads sink

  30. Loss of Coastland 2100

  31. Global Migration • Pew Center for Climate Research • 300 million people displaced by 2050

  32. List of Short Science Games • European Response to SO2 Pollution – Helsinki 1984(Chemistry, ENVS) • European Response to NOx Pollution – Sophia 1987 (Chemistry, ENVS) • Challenging the USDA Food Pyramid, 1991 (Food and Nutrition) • Climate Change in Copenhagen – 2009 (Chemistry, ENVS) • Feeding Africa, 2002 (Chemistry, Biology) • Chemistry at Karlsruhe, 1860 (Chemistry, History of Science) • The Pluto Debate, 1999-2006 (Astronomy, Physics) • Ways and Means, 1935 (Math) • Diet and the Killer Diseases – 1976 McGovern Hearings (Food and Nutrition) • London 1854: Cesspits, Cholera, and the Conflict over the Broad Street Pump (Biology, Microbiology)

  33. List of Long Science Games • Acid Rain in Europe, 1979-1989 • SO2Nox, Catalytic Converters and Leaded Gas • Kansas 1999: Evolution or Creationism • Includes Big Bang Cosmology • The Trial of Galileo: Aristotelianism, the “New Cosmology,” and the Catholic Church, 1616-33 • Cosmology and Astronomy • Darwin, the Copley Medal and the Rise of Naturalism

  34. Instructor Resources • Instructor’s Manual for each game • Suggested syllabus • Tips on role assignment and game management • Student Roles (20-30 per game) • Journal articles for students • Facebook - Faculty Lounge (Private Group)

  35. Web Resources • http://reacting.barnard.edu • www.rttp.org • https://sites.google.com/site/reactingscience/home • Journal Collections • `Food Pyramid • Acid Rain (SO2 and NOx) • Diet and Killer Diseases (Dietary fat) • Feeding Africa (GM Food)

  36. Anecdotal Observations • Students get to know each other early (Karlsruhe 2nd week of semester) • Breaks down typical polarizations in class • Race, Class level, gender • Students work outside class in groups • Many work with student they might never talk to • Students were more interactive through term.

  37. General Observations • Virtually 100% attendance during games • Students engaged • Students have fun • Encourages group work in Factions • Each game provides leadership opportunities • Peer Pressure works toward deeper engagement

  38. What did you Like?

  39. Acknowledgements • NSF-CCLI Award 0920441 2009-2013 • Mark Carnes • Center for Assessment Research and Study – JMU • Donna Sundre • Megan Rogers

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