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The Promise and Peril of Data Mining

The Promise and Peril of Data Mining. Including a Trip to Iceland Steve Smela, CSCI 5707 October 8, 2013. Connections to CSCI 5707. Text Chapter 28 (Weeks 13 & 14)—Data Mining. Iceland’s Flag. Iceland’s Coat of Arms. Iceland’s King. Map of Iceland. What Does Iceland Have?.

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The Promise and Peril of Data Mining

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  1. The Promise and Peril of Data Mining Including a Trip to Iceland Steve Smela, CSCI 5707 October 8, 2013

  2. Connections to CSCI 5707 • Text Chapter 28 (Weeks 13 & 14)—Data Mining

  3. Iceland’s Flag

  4. Iceland’s Coat of Arms

  5. Iceland’s King

  6. Map of Iceland

  7. What Does Iceland Have? Icelandic Sheep Glaciers Volcanoes and Stuff

  8. But Most Importantly….

  9. Icelanders!(324,000 of them) IngolfurArnarson, 1st Permanent Norse Settler in Iceland One of Ingolfur’s Descendants

  10. Used “Cognitive Performance Scale” to assess performance of those with mutation vs. those without mutation Only possible because ratings are done frequently in nursing homes in Iceland

  11. Cognition measured by CPS as a function of age. T Jonssonet al. Nature000, 1-4 (2012) doi:10.1038/nature11283

  12. The Promise of Data Mining • Possible insights into Alzheimer’s Disease, leading to new treatments

  13. The Perils of Data Mining-I • Correlation does not equal causality • Just because A673T is associated with better scores on the Cognitive Performance Scale, it doesn’t mean that the mutation protects against Alzheimer’s • Independent confirmation needed

  14. Ways to Verify Insights Gained from Data Mining • In “Big Data” context, it’s common practice to split data into at least 2 (sometimes more) sets • Training set • Validation set • In Icelandic study, what did they do?

  15. Independent Testing of Hypothesis

  16. Perils of Data Mining-II

  17. What Does this Mean?

  18. Take-Home Messages • Data mining holds great potential, especially in ideal conditions like Iceland • Associations found through data mining must be independently verified • Data mining must take into account ethical issues such as the informed consent of the research subjects

  19. Sources • http://news.sciencemag.org/people-events/2012/12/purchase-amgen-wont-affect-decode-genetics-research-founder-says • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland • Jocelyn Kaiser. 2013. “Agency Nixes deCODE's New Data-Mining Plan.” Science 340, 1388-1389 (21 June 2013). • http://www.decode.com/ and http://www.decode.com/news-events/ • http://www.interrai.org/assets/files/Scales/Cognitive%20Performance%20Scale.pdf • ThorlakurJonsson, Jasvinder K. Atwal, Stacy Steinberg, Jon Snaedal, Palmi V. Jonsson, et al. 2012. “A Mutation in APP Protects against Alzheimer’s Disease and Age-Related Cognitive Decline.” Nature 488, 96–99 (02 August 2012). • Jeff Gulcher, AgnarHelgason, and  KáriStefánsson. “Genetic Homogeneity of Icelanders.” Nature Genetics  26, 395 (2000).

  20. Questions?

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