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Introduction

Introduction. I have been following Hulbert for 15 yrs I have used Hulbert Financial Digest To select Stock…But not for timing Hulbert Newsletters with the highest return which often have high Beta’s My objective is not to buy & hold. Hulbert.

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Introduction

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Introduction • I have been following Hulbert for 15 yrs • I have used Hulbert Financial Digest To select Stock…But not for timing • Hulbert Newsletters with the highest return which often have high Beta’s • My objective is not to buy & hold

  2. Hulbert • Hulbert says easiest way to loss money, follow Last Year’s hottest NL. • Best results – NL’s with good 10–15 yr returns • Hulbert says that a NL’s can be a good stock pickers or good timers but not both • Timing - Pat Finnegan's Stock Chart timing signal Using signals for Stock Entry and Exsist

  3. Studying News Letters • Hulbert has been publishing for 33 yrs • Looking for NL to help select stocks • Hulbert Financial Digest tracks 189 NL

  4. Out Line of Presentation • A Newletters can contain one Portfolio or as many as 9 portfolios • Hulbert data base: NL’s monthly return (1 - 9 Portfolios) Every Portfolio’s (inside NL) monthly return • Hulbert is reporting monthly on 541 Portfolio’s at this time. NL-P

  5. Hulbert • Goal is find Newsletters that have good performance over 15, 10, 5 years • Some of these top Portfolios suffer major declines during Financial Crisis & early 2000. It appears that Portfolio’s with high returns also have a very high Beta. • (When the market is going down these Portfolios go down fast, you lose more than the market averages).

  6. Raw Return NL-P • First slide covers YTD July 2013 1/13 - 07/13 • Second slide covers 2012 12 months 1/12 - 12/12 • Third slide reviews last three years 1/10 - 12/12 • Fourth slide will review last five years 1/08 - 12/12 • Fifth slide looks at the last ten years 1/03 – 12/12 • Fifth slide looks at the last ten years 1/98 – 12/12

  7. July YTD 2013 Performance • Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stks 26%  • Medical Technology Stk- Trader Portfolio 106% • Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech 39% • Turnaround Letter – Small-Cap >1B 21% • Linde Equity Report 1P 39%

  8. ONE YR PERFORMANCE as of 12/2012by NL-P Annualize • Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stks 210%  • Medical Technology Stk- Trader Portfolio 74% • Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech 50% • Turnaround Letter – Small-Cap >1B 45% • Linde Equity Report 1P 23%

  9. Three Yr Performance as of 12/12by NL-P Annualized • Investment Reporter-Higher Risk Stk 73% • Medical Technology–Traders Portfolio 21%   • Buyback Letter – Health & Bio – Tech 24% • Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >$1B 22%  • Linde Equity Report 1P 11%

  10. Five YR as of 12/2012by NL-P Annualized Beg 1/08 • Investment Reporter- Higher Risk Stks 17% • Medical Technology Stk– Trader P -14% • Buyback Letter – Health & Bio Tech 8% • Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B 0% • Linde Equity Report 1P 6%

  11. Ten YR as of 12/12by NL-P Annualized Beg 1/03 • The Investment Reporter - Higher risk 20% • Medical Technology- Trader P 20% • Buyback Letter – Health & Bio 17% • Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B 13% • Linde Equity Report 1P 9%

  12. Fifteen YRs Jan 1998 - Dec 2012 • The Investment Reporter - Higher risk 8% • Medical Technology- Trader P XX • Buyback Letter – Health & Bio XX • Turnaround Letter – Small Cap >1B 10% • Linde Equity Report 1P XX

  13. Investment Reporter • Cost per year $337 p/yr • Number of Portfolios - 13 started 1941 • Frequency Weekly • Best Portfolio 10yrs P - Higher Risk - 20% P – Conservative stk - 18% • Strategy – Fundamental + L/T view • Average Holding Period 5 years • Number of Securites P-High Risk - 2 • Volatility vs Wilshire 11% higher • 75% Canadian, 25% US stock

  14. Buyback Letter • Cost per year $195 p/yr • Number of Portfolios - 9 started 1997 • Frequency Monthly • Portfolios 5P Best Health & Bio Tech • Strategy – Efficient market over looks stk buyback • Average Holding Period 11 Months • Volatility vs Wilshire 5% less

  15. Turnaround Letter • Cost per year $ 195p/yr • No. of Portfolio 3 started 1987 • Strategy– Stk to recover from previous period • Number of Securites – 19 • Average Holding period 863 days • Volatility vs Wilshire 70% more

  16. Forbes Special Situation • Cost per year $295 p/yr • Number of Portfolios one started 2001 • Strategy – Fundamental • Frequency once a month with 1 stk p/mo • Number of Securites – 13 • Average Holding period 231 days • Volatility vs Wilshire 70% higher

  17. Linde • Cost per year $149 p/yr started 2001 • Frequency Monthly with one stk • Strategy– Stk with high equity returns • Number of Securites 13 • Average Holding period 572 days • Volatility vs Wilshire 89% more

  18. NL-P Draw Down annz 14 Jan 08 thru Feb 09 • Investment Reporter- High Risk -63% • Medical Tech – Trader Portfolio -67% • Buyback Letter- Health & Bio -38% • Turnaround Letter- Small Cap >1B -72% • Linde Equity -53% • Forbes Special Situation -25%

  19. Conclusion • Best performers have high Beta to the market • Need to have a exit plan for Bear Mkt • Should consider the Investment Reporter Published since 1941 • Negative – 75% of allocation Canadian Stocks • Some Canadian Stocks thinly traded

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