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Delphi Method

Computer Information Systems Georgia State University. Delphi Method. Radhika Jain Rebecca Rodecker. What do these have in common?. Economically Useful Desalination of Seawater Oral Contraceptives X-ray Lasers Self-replicating Molecules Synthetic Protein

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Delphi Method

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  1. Computer Information Systems Georgia State University Delphi Method Radhika Jain Rebecca Rodecker

  2. What do these have in common? • Economically Useful Desalination of Seawater • Oral Contraceptives • X-ray Lasers • Self-replicating Molecules • Synthetic Protein • Automatic Language Translation • Centralized Data Banks DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  3. How about these? • Controlled Thermo Nuclear Power • Biochemical General Immunization • Limited Weather Control • World population by 2000 less than 6 billion • Manned Landing on Mars DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  4. Agenda • History • Characteristics • Types • Application Areas • The Need for Delphi • Generic Process • Pros/Cons • Reasons for Failure • Sources DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  5. “When something has attained a point at which it is explicitly definable, then progresshas stopped” -Linstone, 75 DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  6. History of DELPHI • 1944 • Call for forecast of future technological capabilities • 1946 • Douglas Aircraft Company • Project RAND • 1953 • Dalkey & Helmer • Iteration with controlled feedback • Set of Procedures - DELPHI Priestess of DelphiHon.John Collier, 1891 DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  7. History Continued (2) • 1960s • Developed • Theoretical assumptions • Methodological procedures • Spread beyond defense area • Spread beyond America • 1970 • Policy DELPHI • Late 70s • Computer Mediated Delphi DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  8. Delphi is Characterized… • as a method for structuring a group communication process • so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals • as a whole • to deal with complex problems Linstone & Turroff, 75, p.3 DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  9. Key Characteristics Anonymity Iterative Controlled Feedback Aggregation DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  10. 3 Types • Classical Delphi • Estimate unknown parameters • Policy Delphi • Generate the strongest possible opposing views on the potential resolutions of a major policy issue • Decision Delphi • Aims to prepare, assist, and make decisions Woudengberg, 91 DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  11. Some Application Areas • Surfacing new issues and moving study participants towards consensus • MISQ – Key Issue studies • Produce a rank-ordered list of risk factors • Schmidt, Lyyntinen, Keil, and Cule (01) • Determine the important dimensions and their measures for evaluating IS function performance • Saunders (92) • Weight functions to be performed at a given point in systems development • Naumann and Palvia (82) DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  12. Naumann and Palvia, 82 Example use DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  13. More Application Areas • Gathering current and historical data not accurately known or available • Examining the significance of historical events • Putting together the structure of a model • Delineating the pros and cons associated with potential policy options • Developing causal relationships in complex economic or social phenomena • Distinguishing and clarifying real and perceived human motivations • Exposing priorities of personal values and social goal DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  14. The Need for DELPHI • Subjective judgments vs. precise analytical techniques • Diverse backgrounds • Too many for face-to-face • Time & cost infeasible • Severe disagreement • Preservation of participant heterogeneity DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  15. Generic Process AssembleGroup Exploration of Subject Analyze Comments DiscussIssues 1st Iteration:Brainstorming 3rd Iteration:Ranking 2nd Iteration:NarrowingDown Report toGroup PublishResults DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  16. Unresolved Issues • Iterations • How many iterations? • Reliability and Validity • The aim of consensus • Mathematical aggregation of individual judgment versus committee-like groups • Panel • How many • How to measure expertise • The nature of the feedback provided DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  17. Stability Measurement Computations Abs ( #of respondents selecting a particular rating on the scale)Between Rounds 1 & 2 Linstone & Turroff, 75, p.279 DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  18. Results of Stability Analysis Linstone & Turroff, 75, p.281 DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  19. Proportion of respondents shifting positionsas a function of distance from the mode 100% Average % movement over three rounds 80% 60% Proportion of individuals at each distance from mode who move toward mode 40% 20% 15% Units from mode mode 1 2 3 4 Linstone & Turroff, 75, p.280 DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  20. Results of Stability Analysis Linstone & Turroff, 75, p.281 DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  21. Philosophical Foundations • Lockean IS • Leibnizian IS • Kantian IS • Hegelian Dialectic IS • Singerian-Churchman IS DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  22. Possible Pros (1) DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  23. Possible Pros (2) DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  24. Possible Cons (1) DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  25. Possible Cons (2) DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  26. Reasons for Failure DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  27. Abbreviated List of Sources • Churchill, G.A. Marketing Research: Methodological Foundations Dryden Press, New York, 1995. • Delbecq, A.L., Van de Ven, A.H., and Gustafson, D.H. Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes Scott-Foresman and Company, 1975. • Gutierrez, O. "Experimental techniques for information requirement analysis," Information & Management (16) 1989, pp 31-43. • Linstone, H.A., and Turoff, M. The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1975. • Naumann, J.D., and Palvia, S. "A Selection Model for Systems Development Tools," MIS Quarterly (6:1), March 1982, pp 39-48. • Rowe, G., Wright, G., and Bolger, F. "Delphi: A re-evaluation of Research and Theory," Technological Forecasting (39) 1991, pp 235-251. DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  28. Sackman, H. Delphi Critique Lexington Books, Lexington, MA, 1975. • Saunders, C.S., and Jones, J.W. "Measuring Performance of the Information Systems Function," Journal of Management Information Systems (8:4), Spring 1992, pp 63-82. • Schmidt, R., Lyytinen, K., Keil, M., and Cule, P. "Identifying Software Project Risks: An International Delphi Study," Journal of Management Information Systems (17:4), Spring 2001, pp 5-36. • Story, V., Hurdley, L., Smith, G., and Saker, J. "Methodological and Practical Implications of the Delphi Technique in Marketing Decision-Making: A Re-Assessment," Marketing Review (1:4), Summer 2001, pp 487-505. • Weber, R. "Computer Technology and Jobs: An Impact Assessment Model," Communications of the ACM (31:1), January 1988, pp 68-77. • Woudenberg, F. "An Evaluation of Delphi," Technological Forecasting and Social Change (40:2) 1991, pp 131-150. DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  29. More Sources • Please see our EndNote file for a complete list of sources. DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

  30. Thank You DELPHI METHOD / Radhika Jain & Rebecca Rodecker

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