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SREF Products

SREF Products. An Overview. In General SREF products include 1. Regular forecast products 2. Aviation products - some need additional computation with some algorithms Each product has 1.GRIB212/104-extension format – CONUS grid file

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SREF Products

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  1. SREF Products An Overview

  2. In General SREF products include 1. Regular forecast products 2. Aviation products - some need additional computation with some algorithms Each product has 1.GRIB212/104-extension format – CONUS grid file 2.NCEP-BUFR format – 1300 station record file Some specific orders from customers 1. Products for New England-Energy project 2. Surface aviation ensemble products verification with TAF data 3. Severe weather, winter wx, marine, hurricane, hydro, etc

  3. SREF prods GRIB-ext Web Image ETA-output GRIB-212 file ETA-post SREF-post ETA-output GRIB-212 file ETA-output GRIB-212 file GRIB-212 file RSM-output Aviation Prods GRIB-ext Web image Aviation-post RSMpost GRIB-212 file RSM-output GRIB-212 file RSM-output 15 individual BUFR file BUFR file SREF prods BUFR BUFR file Ens. BUFR-post BUFR-post BUFR file BUFR file BUFR file 15 individual Mdl output files Model-Post posted-files Ensemble-post Products Products Generation Stages

  4. Ensembleproducts are classified as 3 types 1. Mean and spread Mean- averaged values among all ensemble members Spread- standard deviation of all ensemble members 2. Probability The probability of event occurrence or exceeding same threshold 3. Spaghetti Graphic diagram – composed of contours for a specific value of all members

  5. SREF Product list (GRIB-ext) Mean&spread(11)Probability(15)Spaghetti(12) T (2m, 850,700mb) T2m>(75,80,85,90,100F) Surface pressure=(976,984,…..1008,1016mb) T-H-index(2m) T-H-Index>(70,75,80,85,90F) T2m=(-35,-30,..-5,0, 5,…30,35C) SLP Td2m>(50,60,70,80,90F) 500mb-hgt=(5220,5280,….5820,5880m) W(10m,850,250mb) W10m>(15,20,25,34,50 kn) T850mb=(-15,-10,-5,0,5,10,15C) RH(850,700mb) CAPE>(500,1000,2000,3000,4000J/kg) 1000-850mb thickness=(1240,1280,…1360m) Thickness(1000-850mb LI < (0,-4,-8 K) 850-700mb thickness=(1480,1500,…1560m) 850-700mb 3hr-apcp > (0.1,0.25,0.5,1.0, 2.0in) 1000-500mb thickness=(5160,5280,…5640m) 1000-500mb) 6hr-apcp > (0.1,0.25,0.5,1.0, 2.0in) CAPE=(500,1000,2000,3000,4000 J/kg) Hgt(500mb, 250mb) 12hr-apcp > (0.1,0.25,0.5,1.0, 2.0in) 3hr-apcp=(0.1,0.25,0.5,1.2 in) APCP(3,6,12,24hr) 24hr-apcp > (0.1,0.25,0.5,1.0, 2.0in) 6hr-apcp=(0.1,0.25,0.5,1.2 in) Dominant precp(3hr) Precip types (rain, frozen-rain, snow) 12hr-apcp=(0.1,0.25,0.5,1.2 in) Snowfall(3,6,12,24hr) 3hr-snowfall > (1,2.5,5,10,20 in) 24hr-apcp=(0.1,0.25,0.5,1.2 in) Instability (CAPE,LI,IN) 6hr-snowfall > (1,2.5,5,10,20 in) 12hr-snowfall > (1,2.5,5,10,20 in 24hr-snowfall > (1,2.5,5,10,20 in)

  6. SREF Aviation Product List(GRIB-ext) Variable(12) Product Level Algorithm Icing Prob of occurrence FL240,180,150,120 T-RH 090,060,030,FL000 Turbulence Prob of occ(LGT,MDT,SVR) FL420,390,360,330 Ellrod1992 300,270,240,FL210 Cloud Mean/spread Model-ouput Prob(ovrcst,scttr,brkn,clr) Visibility Mean/spread Surface T-RH-Rain-Snow Ceiling Mean/spread Surface Condition definition Flight-Restr Prob(LIFR,IFR,MFFR,VFR) Surface visib-ceiling-cloud Jet-stream Prob(>60,80,100 knots) 4500,18000,34000ft Model-output 10m-wind Mean/spread Model-output Prob(>10,20,30 knots) 10m Max-wind Mean/spread Model-output LLWS Mean/spread Vector-difference Tropopause Mean/spread Model-output Frozen-level Mean/spread Model-output Fog, SLD, Wind dirTo be added

  7. BUFR products BUFR format files are used to store point data such as observation data at stations BUFR files are associated with BUFR table to encode/decode SREF ETA BUFR files use ETA-BUFR table RSM BUFR files use RSM-BUFR table - bring un-convenience to the users Now both ETA and RSM BUFR files use same ETA BUFR table - easy to maintain for us - easy to decode or further process for the users Problem: Some variables have not been defined in BUFR by WMO yet - Particularly, ensemble variables not been defined - Wait for NCEP BUFR team, take time

  8. BUFR products (continue) Each individualBUFR file stores following data 1. Profile data (ETA 60 levels, RSM 28 levels) U,V,W,T,Q,P, Cloud-water, TKE (only ETA) 2. Surface data Nearly 50 variables, such as Psfc, Psea, T2m, Td2m, U10m,V10m, Heat-fluxes, Radiation-fluxes, Precipitation, Snowfall, Helicity, Precip-types, cloud-cover, cloud-base, Soil moist/temperature, … etc…. Users can make adding new variable request as long as it has been defined by WMO (check BUFR document) BUFR-mean/spread/prob Data retrieved from BUFR files are used to compute mean/spread/probability PLEASE NOTE: the different profile levels between ETA and RSM

  9. Product Storage and display SREF system runs operationally 2 times (09z and 21z) a day - Regular and aviation products are automatically generated 2 times everyday also -The products are saved in GRIB-ext format and image format on NCEP server - IC/BC data are saved in NCEP HPSS disk and Can be re-used in retrospective run if necessary Both regular and aviation products are displayed on SREF website - Zooming in/out - Animation - Also linked to SREF doc, verification, evaluation, and ensemble training, references - Might have displaying problem using old browsers

  10. Future Plan Expand to Alaska (this fall) Switch to new 32km-SREF system - We are testing the new 32km SREF system with more diversity in physics - It will be implemented into operation by NCO this June - Then all SREF products will be generated with the new system Add new products - Upon the request from users Hope to corporate with FSL and Aviation Service Branch - Verify with RTVS and TAF data WRF common post - Use only one post for all ensemble models Ensemble Mean/Spread/Prob BUFR -Different levels of ETA and RSM -Current BUFR table not define ensemble data

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