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CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING 26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING 26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland. STATUS / PROGRESS REPORT FOR GPC-SEOUL. Suhee Park Korea Meteorological Administration. Contents. History of GPC-Seoul KMA Forecast system Basic forecast outputs Products Verification

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CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING 26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

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  1. CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING 26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland STATUS / PROGRESS REPORT FOR GPC-SEOUL Suhee Park Korea Meteorological Administration

  2. Contents • History of GPC-Seoul • KMA Forecast system • Basic forecast outputs • Products • Verification • Future developments

  3. History of GPC-Seoul • Discussed the function of GPCs and requirement to be joined (CBS OPAG, Geneva, Feb. 2003) • Discussed GPCs/RCCs/NMHSs’ Needs (CBS OPAG, Jeju, Oct. 2005) • Submitted the results of verification for pre-designated for GPC (2006) • GPC Seoul (KMA) was officially designated (CBS-Ext.06, Seoul,  Nov. 2006) • Opened the GPC-Seoul officially (1 Jul. 2007)

  4. KMA Forecast system: Tier-2 • To predict the global SST, a statistical global SST prediction system is being developed by combining Coupled Pattern Projection Model (CPPM), Lagged Linear Regression Method (LLRM), El Nino prediction model, and persistence method.

  5. Basic forecast outputs

  6. Products

  7. Verification: MSSS • SVSLRF Level 1 scores • SVSLRF Level 2 scores

  8. Future developments • Collaboration with UK Met Office(GPC-Exeter) • From 2014, the operational forecast model of GPC-Seoul will be replaced by the Joint Seasonal Forecasting System, based on the GloSea system.

  9. Thank you very much!

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